meetings - Space Flight Mechanics Committee

Feb 13, 2013 Kauai Salon 1
SESSION 17: SPACE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS AND CONJUNCTION ANALYSIS -- I
Chair: Dr. Daniel Scheeres, University of Colorado
8:00 AAS Collision Probability for Resident Space Objects using Gaussian Mixture
13-351 Models
Vivek Vittaldev, The University of Texas at Austin; Ryan Russell, The University of
Texas at Austin
Computation of space object collision probability plays a large role in the spacecraft
community. The number of active satellites and debris is increasing day by day, which leads
to a very realistic chance of a runoff. In general, the methods in practice for computing
collision probability require that the uncertainty distributions be represented with a
linearized position covariance; otherwise Monte Carlo simulations are required, which are
very computationally intensive. Our goal is to improve the accuracy of the covariance
propagation phase by using Gaussian Mixture Models, and to thus better approximate the
non-linear probability distribution resulting near the encounter.
8:20 AAS Determining a Probability-based Distance Threshold for Conjunction
13-352 Screening
Salvatore Alfano, Center for Space Standards and Innovation
Various economizing filters are used to identify orbiting pairs that cannot come close
enough over a prescribed time period to be considered hazardous. Such pairings can then be
eliminated from further computation to quicken the overall processing time. When
conjunction probability is to be used as a metric, a minimum distance threshold can be
determined from the minimum acceptable probability threshold. This work develops an
analytical approximation that relates maximum probability to a miss distance threshold,
thereby ensuring that the screening distance is adequate for probability-based conjunction
assessment.
8:40 AAS Insertion Error and Conjunction Analysis for Single-Launch, Large Scale
13-353 Space System
Andrew Rogers, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University; Matthew
Schmitt, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University; Troy Henderson,
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University; Scott Bailey, Virginia
Polytechnic Institute and State University; Chad Fish, Virginia Polytechnic Institute
and State University
The deployment of large-scale, multi-satellite space systems from a single launch vehicle
offers an attractive platform for scientific observations. By deploying the satellites in a
string of pearls configuration initially, with a small spread in semi-major axis and
inclination, the natural orbit dynamics cause the orbits to spread, leading to global coverage
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23 rd AAS / AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting