Salt Lake City International Airport Terminal Redevelopment ...

CHAPTER 1 PURPOSE AND NEED
1.5.3 Recommended Forecast
Although the dynamic nature of air transportation makes predicting aircraft and passenger
activity complex, airport plans must be based on estimates of the future needs for each of
the airport’s major functional areas (for example, airfield, terminal, landside, access
roadways, cargo). FAA Advisory Circular 150/5070-6B, Airport Master Plans (FAA, 2005a),
states that, “Forecasts of future levels of aviation activity are the basis for effective planning
decisions in airport planning. These estimates are used to determine the need for new or
expanded facilities.”
FAA Order 5050.4B, Paragraph 504.b., stipulates that forecasts used in the National
Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process should be within 10 percent of the TAF at the
5-year forecast period and within 15 percent at the 10-year forecast period. The base year for
the forecasts used in this EA is 2009; the last full year of data before the start of the EA
process. The 5- and 10-year comparisons fall at 2014 and 2019, respectively. Exhibit 1-5
shows that these aviation demand forecasts closely parallel the FAA 2009 TAF for SLC. The
enplaned passenger forecast is within 4.9 percent of the FAA 2009 TAF for 2014 and within
3.0 percent for 2019. The enplaned passenger growth rate (an average increase of 2.2 percent
per year between 2009 and 2030) is slightly lower than the rate forecast by the FAA in the
2009 TAF. Similarly, the forecast of aircraft operations is within 0.3 percent of the FAA 2009
TAF in 2014 and 2.0 percent in 2019. The forecast growth rate in total aircraft operations (an
average increase of 1.4 percent per year between 2009 and 2030) is slightly lower than the
rate forecast by the FAA in the 2009 TAF for the Airport.
The FAA approved these forecasts for use in this EA in October 2010 (Luey, 2010, personal
communication). Since that time, the FAA has updated the TAF. A review of the
preliminary 2011 TAF provided by FAA (Luey, 2011, personal communication) shows that
passenger and aircraft operations growth forecasts are generally consistent with those in
earlier editions of the TAF. The preliminary forecasts are slightly lower than the previous
TAF but remain well within the 10 percent and 15 percent ranges described above.
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