Technical Risk Assessment Handbook - Defence Science and ...

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10 is set out in the Preliminary Function and Performance Specification (PFPS) at First Pass and the Function and Performance Specification (FPS) at Second Pass. The required schedule and estimated costs are described in the Initial Business Case for each option at First Pass and the Acquisition Business Case for each option at Second Pass. 3.10 The PFPS and FPS indicate the capability requirements as essential, important or desirable. The essential requirements define for Government the minimum capability that Defence commits to deliver within the approved budget and schedule. Important and desirable requirements may be traded away during tender negotiations. 3.11 Accordingly, the TRA should focus on the essential project requirements and the ability to meet those and deliver the required performance in time and on budget. Generally, technical risks identified for important and desirable criteria will contribute significantly less to the overall project technical risk. However, there may still be instances where it is necessary to consider important and even desirable criteria, as well as the essential ones, so as to fully consider the technical risks to the project. Fitness-for-Purpose issues 3.12 From the definition of risk, there has to be uncertainty for a risk to exist. If there is no uncertainty then it is an issue, not a risk 4 . Issues are effects that have happened or will certainly happen 5,6 . Technical issues that prevent the capability option achieving the objectives of the project are termed fitness-for-purpose issues. 3.13 Consider for example a thermal imaging device designed to work effectively in northern Europe. This device is not suitable for use in a tropical rain-forest environment, where the high moisture content of the air leads to strong absorption of infra-red radiation in the frequency bands used by this device. As a result such a device would not be able to effectively detect objects in our environment. This is not a risk as the deficiency is certain, instead it is a technical fitness-for-purpose issue as the device can not provide the capability required. 3.14 Technical fitness-for-purpose issues may arise from technologies and subsystems that are mature but which have not been demonstrated in the required operating environment. The TRA process will identify these technologies and subsystems but will not identify if there is an issue involved: this requires further technical analysis and/or performance assessment. Technical issues may also be identified when assessing whether or not the PFPS or FPS can be achieved by the option being assessed. Although issues are identified separately in the TRA, activities introduced to treat a fitness-for-purpose issue may themselves introduce risk. For example, if a piece of equipment is required to fit in a vehicle and one option does not fit, then the choices are to either reject the option or to modify it: but 4 Shepherd, B. (2003). Managing Risk in a Program Office Environment. Acquisition Review Quarterly, Spring 2003, p125-138. 5 US Department of Defense (2006). Risk Management Guide for DOD Acquisition. Sixth Edition (Version 1.0). 6 UK Acquisition Operating Framework at http://www.aof.mod.uk/aofcontent/tactical/risk/content/intro.htm Technical Risk Assessment Handbook Version 1.1
11 modifying the equipment may introduce a risk, as further development or integration work may be required. 3.15 Fitness-for-purpose issues are described in a specific section of the TRA document. Importantly, because issues are separate from risks, they do not affect the overall level of technical risk. Technical risk sources 3.16 There are many potential sources of risk to a project, both internal and external, as illustrated in Figure 4 (Figure 4 is not a comprehensive list of all risk sources). The TRA addresses risks that arise from technical sources, both internally and externally sources. Internal External Workforce Integration Economy Political Uncertainties here Technical Engineering Project Management Technology Budget Climate Industry Legal Technical Other Projects can effect project’s objectives Performance Cost Schedule Safety Supportability Figure 4: Sources of risk 3.17 There are two broad types of risk that arise from technical sources: • For a technology that is still being developed there is a likelihood that the technology will not be developed in the time and funding available. This could lead to a potential impact on the required performance, cost and/or schedule. This is termed a technology risk. • If the sub-systems are still being developed and have not been integrated and demonstrated in the system sought or the system into the ADF, there is the likelihood that the system will not achieve the level of performance required. This could lead to a potential impact on the required performance, cost and/or schedule. This results in a technical risk. Technical Risk Assessment Handbook Version 1.1
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Page 3 and 4: iii Overview Preface The Technical
Page 5 and 6: 1 Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Techni
Page 7 and 8: 3 Chapter 2 Technical Risk Assessme
Page 9 and 10: 5 activities link into project risk
Page 11 and 12: 7 2.16 Following Government Project
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Page 19 and 20: 15 Technology Readiness Description
Page 21 and 22: 17 3.36 Annex C provides a more det
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Page 31 and 32: 27 Project AIR 1234 TRA Summary Lik
Page 33 and 34: 29 being modified. In this case the
Page 35 and 36: 31 the degree of divergence of expe
Page 37 and 38: 33 Acronyms ADF ADO CABSUB CDG CDB
Page 39 and 40: 35 Annex B Indicative Structure of
Page 41 and 42: 37 Software Technology Readiness Le
Page 43 and 44: 39 System Readiness Levels 1 SRL De
Page 45 and 46: 41 7. What regulatory hurdles need

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