Technical Risk Assessment Handbook - Defence Science and ...

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a list for each sub-system of the technologies required to enable that sub-system to
work.
5.15 Evaluate the maturity of each technology. The TRLs defined in Table 2 form
the basis for assessing a technology’s maturity. Each contributing technology for
each sub-system should be examined to assess its maturity and these assessments
should be recorded in the TRA.
5.16 Identify candidate technology risk events. If the TRL of a component
technology is assessed as 9, then no further development is required. Accordingly
this technology is not a source of technology risk, although it can still lead to a
technical or integration risk. On the other hand, component technologies that are
assessed as TRL less than 9 are potential sources of technology risk. The PSTA
should then assess the likelihood that the technology will not be developed to TRL 9
to meet the required in-service date and acquisition schedule, using historical
precedence and/or expert judgement. If this is a possibility, then this is a risk source.
The likelihood is assessed as either More Than Likely, Less Than Likely or
Unlikely, as described in paragraph 3.26.
5.17 Once the technology risk sources have been identified, the next activity is to
assess the impact on achieving the project’s objectives if the risk event were to
happen, and hence the level of risk. This leads to a risk statement along the lines of:
‘There is a chance that the sub-system will not mature sufficiently in the required
time, which could impact the project’s requirements.’
5.18 These technology risks are then set out using the format at Table 4. As shown
in the Table, an estimate of the likelihood can be provided where there is sufficient
confidence, either as a point estimate or as a range.
Technology TRL Development
required
Battery 9 Same battery
proven in service
on another missile
Guidance
set
5 Shock resistance
still to be
demonstrated
Likelihood
of
technology
not maturing
in time 1
UNLIKELY
(10-15%)
Notes.
1. Likelihood is assessed as More Than Likely, Less Than Likely or Unlikely.
2. Impact is assessed as Minor, Moderate or Major.
3. Risk is assessed as Nil, Low, Medium or High.
Table 4: Table of technology risks.
Impact on Risk 3
project’s
objectives 2
Moderate
(Could delay
schedule)
Nil
Low
5.19 The Technology Risk table is developed for each option and included as an
annex in the TRA. Where the technologies are the same for each option, the risk
identification can recorded in the one table.
Technical Risk Assessment Handbook Version 1.1