IPET Report 3 Vol VIII

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Culture Land Use Issues Rainfall/ Tropical Storm Power Figure 3. Influence Diagrams for Risk Analysis Hurricane (x,y) (Surge, Wind, Waves, Rain) Closure Level1 Level2 Structures & Operations Mitigation Level3 Failure Others Success Environment Pump System Levees Warning Decision/ Public Rainfall/ Execution Tropical Storm Yes Yes No No Property Impacts/ Exposure Flooding (x,y) Power Communication Yes No Levee/ Floodwall System Closure Structures & Operations Subsidence (x,y,t) Hurricane (x,y) (Surge, Wind, Waves, Rain) Yes No Mitigation Analysis of levees, floodwalls, etc. as a system Levees Failure Mode1 Failure Mode2 Failure Mode1 Failure Mode2 VIII-12 Volume VIII Engineering and Operational Risk and Reliability Analysis This is a preliminary report subject to revision; it does not contain final conclusions of the United States Army Corps of Engineers. Survival Figure 4. Probability Tree for the Hurricane Protection System Social/ Health/ Safety Communication Floodwall Warning Decision/ Public Execution Floodwall Survival Response/ Evacuation Failure Survival Pump System Culture+Property+Environmen Culture+Property+Environmen Culture+Property+Environmen Culture+Property+Environmen
Hurricane Protection System Definition The hurricane protection system (HPS) for the New Orleans metropolitan area is provided in Figure 1. The HPS information included in the system descriptions described above have been discretized for the reliability and risk analysis tasks as schematically shown in Figure 5. The system consists of basins, subbasins and reaches. The definition of these basins, subbasins and reaches are based on the following considerations: • Local jurisdiction, • Floodwall type and cross section, • Levee type and cross section, • Engineering parameters defining structural performance, • Soil strength parameters, • Foundations parameters, and Reaches (R) of each basin are uniquely identified using sequential numbers illustrated in the Figure 5. The figure also shows the approximate locations of pumping stations for the purpose of illustration. Detailed maps and descriptions of each basin are provided in Appendices 2 through 7. Figure 5. Hurricane Protection System Defined by Basins and Reaches Volume VIII Engineering and Operational Risk and Reliability Analysis VIII-13 This is a preliminary report subject to revision; it does not contain final conclusions of the United States Army Corps of Engineers.
Page 1 and 2: Performance Evaluation of the New O
Page 3 and 4: Contents Executive Summary.........
Page 5 and 6: Executive Summary The mission of th
Page 7 and 8: The term “reliability” is inten
Page 9 and 10: Background All civil engineering sy
Page 11 and 12: • At many locations, the hurrican
Page 13 and 14: − Design memorandums and supporti
Page 15: Figure 2. Risk Analysis Logic Diagr
Page 19 and 20: � � Figure 6. Event Tree for Qu
Page 21 and 22: Table 2 Definition of Reaches Reach
Page 23 and 24: levels at the sites of interest. Th
Page 25 and 26: Failure and Overtopping Probability
Page 27 and 28: the Orleans basin where the canal b
Page 29 and 30: Storage (ft^3) 1.8E+10 1.6E+10 1.4E
Page 31 and 32: Exceedence Rate (per Year) 1.E-02 1
Page 33 and 34: geographical region that may be con
Page 35 and 36: Pre- and Post-Landfall Parameter Va
Page 37 and 38: Assessment of Hurricane Loads Findi
Page 39 and 40: Table 8 Final Plan for the Mid-Reso
Page 41 and 42: Rainfall Intensity Rainfall is amon
Page 43 and 44: Bister and Emanuel 2002; Free et al
Page 45 and 46: Wave Setup Relative to Maximum Wave
Page 47 and 48: components were developed based on
Page 49 and 50: 1. Internal erosion (piping) of lev
Page 51 and 52: Consequences One of the primary out
Page 53 and 54: The second source of uncertainty is
Page 55 and 56: Frequency per Year 1.E-01 1.E-02 1.
Page 57 and 58: Goldenberg, S. B., C. W. Landsea, A
Page 59: Reliability Modeling Vanmarcke, E.H

IPET Report 3 Vol VIII

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