IPET Report 3 Vol VIII

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Volume VIII Engineering and Operational Risk and Reliability Analysis This report is not intended as a final expression of the findings or conclusions of the United States Army Corps of Engineers, nor has it been adopted by the Corps as such. Rather, this is a preliminary report summarizing data and interim results compiled to date. As a preliminary report, this document and the information contained therein are subject to revisions and changes as additional information is obtained.
Contents Executive Summary................................................................................................................ VIII-1 Participants.............................................................................................................................. VIII-3 Background............................................................................................................................. VIII-5 Analysis Boundaries ............................................................................................................... VIII-7 Study Region and Hurricane Protection System................................................................VIII-7 Physical Description of the HPS .......................................................................................VIII-8 Analysis Assumptions and Constraints..............................................................................VIII-9 Risk Analysis Methodology.................................................................................................. VIII-10 Overview ..........................................................................................................................VIII-10 Contributing Factors and Their Relationships................................................................VIII-10 Hurricane Protection System Definition..........................................................................VIII-13 Probabilistic Risk Model .................................................................................................VIII-14 Event Tree ........................................................................................................................VIII-14 Risk Quantification ..........................................................................................................VIII-16 Hazard Analysis and Initiating Events.................................................................................. VIII-27 Historic Methods..............................................................................................................VIII-27 Joint Probability (JP) Methods........................................................................................VIII-28 Monte Carlo Simulation Methods....................................................................................VIII-28 Choice of a Method..........................................................................................................VIII-28 Hurricane Recurrence at Landfall...................................................................................VIII-29 Pre- and Post-Landfall Parameter Variation..................................................................VIII-31 Parameter Discretization for Risk Analysis.....................................................................VIII-32 Assessment of Hurricane Loads.......................................................................................VIII-33 Calibration and Extension of the MR Results Using the HR Runs..................................VIII-36 Rainfall Intensity..............................................................................................................VIII-37 Epistemic Uncertainty......................................................................................................VIII-37 Climatic Effects and Their Contribution to Epistemic Uncertainty ................................VIII-38 Hurricane Waves................................................................................................................... VIII-39 Determination of Hurricane Frequencies.............................................................................. VIII-41 Reliability Analysis............................................................................................................... VIII-42 Approach..........................................................................................................................VIII-42 Definition of failure .........................................................................................................VIII-44 Fragility curves................................................................................................................VIII-46 Consequences........................................................................................................................ VIII-47 Uncertainty Analysis............................................................................................................. VIII-48 References............................................................................................................................. VIII-51 Risk methodology.............................................................................................................VIII-51 VIII-ii Volume VIII Engineering and Operational Risk and Reliability Analysis This is a preliminary report subject to revision; it does not contain final conclusions of the United States Army Corps of Engineers.
Page 1: Performance Evaluation of the New O
Page 5 and 6: Executive Summary The mission of th
Page 7 and 8: The term “reliability” is inten
Page 9 and 10: Background All civil engineering sy
Page 11 and 12: • At many locations, the hurrican
Page 13 and 14: − Design memorandums and supporti
Page 15 and 16: Figure 2. Risk Analysis Logic Diagr
Page 17 and 18: Hurricane Protection System Definit
Page 19 and 20: � � Figure 6. Event Tree for Qu
Page 21 and 22: Table 2 Definition of Reaches Reach
Page 23 and 24: levels at the sites of interest. Th
Page 25 and 26: Failure and Overtopping Probability
Page 27 and 28: the Orleans basin where the canal b
Page 29 and 30: Storage (ft^3) 1.8E+10 1.6E+10 1.4E
Page 31 and 32: Exceedence Rate (per Year) 1.E-02 1
Page 33 and 34: geographical region that may be con
Page 35 and 36: Pre- and Post-Landfall Parameter Va
Page 37 and 38: Assessment of Hurricane Loads Findi
Page 39 and 40: Table 8 Final Plan for the Mid-Reso
Page 41 and 42: Rainfall Intensity Rainfall is amon
Page 43 and 44: Bister and Emanuel 2002; Free et al
Page 45 and 46: Wave Setup Relative to Maximum Wave
Page 47 and 48: components were developed based on
Page 49 and 50: 1. Internal erosion (piping) of lev
Page 51 and 52: Consequences One of the primary out
Page 53 and 54:
The second source of uncertainty is
Page 55 and 56:
Frequency per Year 1.E-01 1.E-02 1.
Page 57 and 58:
Goldenberg, S. B., C. W. Landsea, A
Page 59:
Reliability Modeling Vanmarcke, E.H
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IPET Report 3 Vol VIII

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