IPET Report 3 Vol VIII

Figure 18. Illustration of the Uncertainty in the Estimate of the Frequency HPS Failure due to Hurricane
Events
Figure 19. Illustration of the Fragility for the HPS Including Modeling Uncertainty and the Effect at the
Authorization Basis
The epistemic uncertainties in each part of the analysis lead to uncertainty in the final risk
results. Propagating the uncertainties of the individual parts of the analysis through to the final
result, produces a probability distribution on the frequency of exceedance of consequence
metrics (e.g., economic consequences). This result is shown in Figure 20.
VIII-50 Volume VIII Engineering and Operational Risk and Reliability Analysis
This is a preliminary report subject to revision; it does not contain final conclusions of the United States Army Corps of Engineers.