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Next steps for HS2 Shutterstock/ Vitek12 After months of consultation and controversy, the high speed rail line between London and the West Midlands got the go-ahead in January. Peter Plisner has been looking at the detail behind the announcement and some of the additional information that’s been released The words from the transport secretary were pretty emphatic. ‘We are ready for a new chapter in Britain’s transport history, one designed to boost our economy and our country, just as the first coming of the railways or the motorways did for previous generations.’ Just weeks after being appointed to the top job, Justine Greening gave the final go-ahead to HS2. But her statement to MPs in parliament was just the tip of the iceberg for those keeping a keen eye on high speed rail pronouncements. Along with the statement came yet another shower of documents, including a further command paper as thick as the one published by the Labour government when it first announced plans for high speed rail back in March 2009. The latest paper covers a lot of ground and includes a detailed summary and responses to the public consultation held last year along the route of the controversial line. Parts of the document concentrate on the need to provide more capacity with phrases like: ‘Demand for rail travel is forecast to continue growing steadily for the next 20-30 years and many services will be full by the mid-2020s if we do not act now.’ The document also maintains that moving a significant proportion of the current intercity services from the existing railway onto new HS2 lines would create space for additional commuter, regional and freight services. There are also new claims about how the line would help support economic growth. The document states: ‘The monetised benefits of the network to business are forecast to be approximately £34-45bn. These come both from faster, more comfortable and convenient journeys, and from businesses being able to operate more efficiently, increasing their productivity, accessing new markets and labour pools.’ On employment there appear to be some new figures too, with an estimate that HS2 could support Shutterstock/Andrew Metto Page 14 march 2012
News analysis around 40,000 jobs in areas it serves. The document does, however, admit that many responses to the consultation were ‘sceptical’ about HS2’s ability to stimulate growth. Plans for high speed rail still envisage a Y-shaped network going to Manchester and Leeds. Unlike the line from London to Birmingham, now due to open in 2026, the Y-network (known as Phase 2) wouldn’t be ready until 2033. According to an updated timetable, consultation of the Y-routes will begin in the autumn. The costs of high speed rail also appear to have been revised slightly – Phase 1 of the line from London to Birmingham is now expected to cost £16.3bn at 2011 prices, while the rest of the network should be delivered for £32.7bn. Phase 1 costs, according to the document, have an optimism bias allowance of 64 per cent. But, according to the secretary of state, at present values, the whole network would generate benefits of up to £47bn and fare revenues of up to £34bn, over a 60-year period. The document also states that the economic analysis carried out by HS2 Ltd indicated a cost benefit ratio for the completed network between 1:6 and 1:9. But, in addition, HS2 Ltd forecasts that the Y-network will generate significant additional wider economic benefits as it will enable businesses to operate more efficiently. However, it’s also noted that there would be additional disadvantages, such as the impact on the natural landscape, which have not currently been quantified and which would need to be considered in assessing overall value for money. The command paper also had another stab at selling high speed rail as environmentally friendly. Labour’s original paper appeared to overstate it’s ability to cut carbon emissions, so much so that the previous transport secretary, Phillip Hammond, faced with evidence from those opposing HS2, had to draw back to a position where he was forced to admit that, at best, the line would be carbon neutral. The latest edict from the government takes a slightly different tack, suggesting that more than 90 per cent of domestic transport emissions are currently generated by road transport; it then goes on to state: ‘Inter-urban rail supports economically vital journeys between our cities, but it is also a key component of a low-carbon transport system.’ It further claims that conventional diesel trains provide a lower-carbon alternative to travel by road, and that electrified rail can deliver further benefits. Later it states: ‘Rail is a comparatively carbon efficient mode, generally creating significantly fewer carbon emissions per passenger mile than either car travel or aviation. Even allowing for the fact that power usage increases with speed, the high levels of passenger usage that high speed services tend to attract mean that, per passenger, carbon emissions remain comparatively low.’ On the blight issues that have made HS2 so controversial, the government seems to be giving more information about what it intends to do. Another document, published on the same day as the command paper, says that for those affected by the route of HS2, the government wants to ‘do all it can to offer assistance and support’. It will introduce a package of compensation measures over and above the statutory minimum, including a refreshed hardship scheme and support for those affected by construction. There will also be measures to simplify the compulsory purchase process, plus a sale and rent-back scheme to give homeowners within special safeguarded areas more flexibility. The government is expected to draw up detailed proposals for consultation in the spring. Along with more news on blight and ‘Hammond was forced to admit that the line, at best, would be carbon neutral’ compensation came a slightly clearer picture on timings for both HS2 and the second phase of the high speed network to the north. Also taking place in the spring will be a consultation with statutory bodies on the ‘safeguarding zone’ for Phase 1, while HS2 Ltd is expected to provide the government with advice on Phase 2 options. The spring will also see an ‘engagement programme’ along the Phase 1 route on environmental impact issues, and the latest timetable suggests that a new blight scheme should be in place by the autumn of this year. At the same time, what’s described as an ‘engagement programme’ on Phase Two will begin to discuss local views and concerns. One of the biggest milestones comes later next year, when the government will introduce the hybrid bill into parliament. It will provide the necessary powers to construct and operate HS2. There’s no information on how long its passage through parliament might take, but with something as controversial as HS2, it can’t be rushed! ■ See Wright Track, pages 16-17, for comment on HS2 PeTeR PLISNeR is The BBc’s Midlands business and transport correspondent: peter.plisner@railpro.co.uk Medical expertise with first-class service levels helping to increase productivity, reduce absenteeism and minimise risk. Rail medicals Blood testing Drug & Alcohol testing Skin assessment Occupational health Travel health Health surveillance Vaccinations Physiotherapy Wellbeing Counselling Customer Service Team 020 7500 6900 www.expressmedicals.co.uk MArch 2012 Page 15
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