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In the face of robust opposition to High
Speed Two, the government has had to
produce a wealth of statistics to justify going ahead with it.
But, so far, the statistics seem to focus on the wrong elements of
the project’s potential benefits, says Robert Wright
High speed
number crunching
www.railimages.co.uk
The main argument for high
speed rail is that the West
Coast Main Line is almost at
full capacity, with demand
expected to grow
The slow rumbling of plans for a new high speed rail
line in the last few months has often resembled
the progress of a vast dumper truck over cars at a
demolition derby. There has never been any doubt
the behemoth would eventually, slowly make it
over the obstacles. But it has been interesting to see
precisely what got crushed on the way.
Sure enough, on 10 January, Justine Greening, the transport
secretary, emerged from the dumper truck’s cab to declare a
‘historic day’ as the government overcame – to at least its own
satisfaction – the many objections to its plans for a London to
Birmingham high speed rail line. According to the government’s
version of events, there will now be smooth progress towards
construction of the line, with the first trains running into
Birmingham’s new Curzon Street station in 2026.
Yet it must, by now, be evident to all but the most wide-eyed
enthusiasts that the arguments about route, funding and traffic
projections provided a far bumpier ride for the high speed rail
plans than anyone anticipated. The once widespread support
for the principle – if not for a specific route – was one of the
most obvious items wrecked. In its place are suspicions about
the government’s motives and confusion about why so much
money is being lavished on such an apparently small stretch of the
country’s infrastructure. A significant caucus of Conservative MPs
along the route have declared more or less open opposition. The
economic case for undertaking the project has also deteriorated to
the point where, were this not a flagship project, it might well be
abandoned.
The question, consequently, is whether HS2, if it was ever
worth building, remains so. I continue to worry that such a high
proportion of the country’s future transport spending is due to
be lavished on a project that, on paper at least, looks considerably
worse value than many other road, rail and airport projects. I
would love there to be some more cost-effective way of achieving
HS2’s stated aims than the project as currently laid out. But, even
Page 16 march 2012