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News analysis
around 40,000 jobs in areas it serves. The document does, however,
admit that many responses to the consultation were ‘sceptical’
about HS2’s ability to stimulate growth.
Plans for high speed rail still envisage a Y-shaped network
going to Manchester and Leeds. Unlike the line from London to
Birmingham, now due to open in 2026, the Y-network (known as
Phase 2) wouldn’t be ready until 2033. According to an updated
timetable, consultation of the Y-routes will begin in the autumn.
The costs of high speed rail also appear to have been revised slightly
– Phase 1 of the line from London to Birmingham is now expected
to cost £16.3bn at 2011 prices, while the rest of the network should
be delivered for £32.7bn.
Phase 1 costs, according to the document, have an optimism bias
allowance of 64 per cent. But, according to the secretary of state, at
present values, the whole network would generate benefits of up
to £47bn and fare revenues of up to £34bn, over a 60-year period.
The document also states that the economic analysis carried out by
HS2 Ltd indicated a cost benefit ratio for the completed network
between 1:6 and 1:9. But, in addition, HS2 Ltd forecasts that the
Y-network will generate significant additional wider economic
benefits as it will enable businesses to operate more efficiently.
However, it’s also noted that there would be additional
disadvantages, such as the impact on the natural landscape,
which have not currently been quantified and which would
need to be considered in assessing overall value for money. The
command paper also had another stab at selling high speed rail
as environmentally friendly. Labour’s original paper appeared to
overstate it’s ability to cut carbon emissions, so much so that the
previous transport secretary, Phillip Hammond, faced with evidence
from those opposing HS2, had to draw back to a position where he
was forced to admit that, at best, the line would be carbon neutral.
The latest edict from the government takes a slightly different
tack, suggesting that more than 90 per cent of domestic transport
emissions are currently generated by road transport; it then goes
on to state: ‘Inter-urban rail supports economically vital journeys
between our cities, but it is also a key component of a low-carbon
transport system.’
It further claims that conventional diesel trains provide a
lower-carbon alternative to travel by road, and that electrified rail
can deliver further benefits. Later it states: ‘Rail is a comparatively
carbon efficient mode, generally creating significantly fewer carbon
emissions per passenger mile than either car travel or aviation.
Even allowing for the fact that power usage increases with speed,
the high levels of passenger usage that high speed services tend
to attract mean that, per passenger, carbon emissions remain
comparatively low.’
On the blight issues that have made HS2 so controversial, the
government seems to be giving more information about what it
intends to do. Another document, published on the same day as
the command paper, says that for those affected by the route of
HS2, the government wants to ‘do all it can to offer assistance and
support’. It will introduce a package of compensation measures over
and above the statutory minimum, including a refreshed hardship
scheme and support for those affected by construction.
There will also be measures to simplify the compulsory
purchase process, plus a sale and rent-back scheme to give
homeowners within special safeguarded areas more flexibility.
The government is expected to draw up detailed proposals for
consultation in the spring. Along with more news on blight and
‘Hammond was forced to admit
that the line, at best, would be
carbon neutral’
compensation came a slightly clearer picture on timings for both
HS2 and the second phase of the high speed network to the north.
Also taking place in the spring will be a consultation with statutory
bodies on the ‘safeguarding zone’ for Phase 1, while HS2 Ltd is
expected to provide the government with advice on Phase 2 options.
The spring will also see an ‘engagement programme’ along
the Phase 1 route on environmental impact issues, and the latest
timetable suggests that a new blight scheme should be in place by
the autumn of this year. At the same time, what’s described as an
‘engagement programme’ on Phase Two will begin to discuss local
views and concerns. One of the biggest milestones comes later
next year, when the government will introduce the hybrid bill
into parliament. It will provide the necessary powers to construct
and operate HS2. There’s no information on how long its passage
through parliament might take, but with something as controversial
as HS2, it can’t be rushed!
■ See Wright Track, pages 16-17, for comment on HS2
PeTeR PLISNeR is The BBc’s Midlands business and transport
correspondent: peter.plisner@railpro.co.uk
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