SOP for Flood Forecasting & Early Warning - UNESCO Islamabad

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 

S. No 

1. SOP Standard Operating Procedure 

2. PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department 

3. FFD Flood Forecasting Division 

4. FFC Federal Flood Commission 

5. NDMA National Disaster Management Authority 

6. PMF Probable Maximum Flood 

7. PMP Probable Maximum Precipitation 

8. WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority 

9. PID Provincial Irrigation Departments 

10. PIDA Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authority 

11. RDFF Routine Daily Flood Forecast 

12. GMT Greenwich Mean Time 

13. PCIW Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Water 

14. ERC Emergency Relief Cell 

15. UNDP United Nation Development Programme 

16. ADB Asian Development Bank 

17. APT Automatic Picture Transmission 

18. RTT Radio Telegraphic Transmission 

19. H & WM Hydrology and Water Management 

20. FWC Flood Warning Center 

21. RC Relief Commissioner 

22. SWH Surface Water Hydrology 


Introduction 

Planes of Pakistan have quite often been swept across by severe flood. In fact out of all the natural 

hazards floods are the single most devastating natural hazard in Pakistan. Statistically every five 

years a flood of exceptionally high level occurs in the Chenab, which is the flashiest channel out of 

all the five major rivers. Every ten years a major flood of exceptionally high level passes through 

all the five rivers. Even 15 years a super flood of 1988 or 1992 type occurs. Loss of life and 

property associated with floods has been colossal. In the year 1973 more than 3 million homes 

were destroyed and 160 persons lost their lives. The 1976 flood demolished over 10 million houses 

while 425 lives were lost with losses amounting to Rs. 6 billion. In 1988 an unprecedented flood 

occurred towards the end of September inflicting Rs. 17 billion worth of damage to the country. 

The super flood of 1992 surpassed all previous records with the damage estimated at Rs. 50 

billion. 

The modern flood fighting strategy is always a blend of engineering as well as non-engineering 

measures. This is because the meteorological phenomena causing the floods is outside the purview 

of the human activity and thus the occurrence of the rainfall and floods cannot be checked. 

However advance information of occurrence of meteorological events can be used to forecast 

floods and adopt safety measures well in time. 

The flood mitigation planning in Indus basin consists of both the engineering as well as nonengineering 

measures. Watershed management above the rim station (the first gauging stations on 

rivers after they enter in Pakistan) forms the starting point of the planning. Below the rim station, 

several flood protection works have been provided to protect the facilities. Most important part of 

the flood mitigation planning is the establishment of a reliable flood early warning system so as to 

afford the timely evacuation of people from the threatened area, use of Mangla and Tarbela 

reservoirs on the basis of the forecast of the expected in flows (through improved flood forecasting 

facilities) is also an important aspect of the flood mitigation process for reducing the downstream 

flood damages by phasing out the flood waves at the confluences. 

The SOP contains the procedure of the flood forecast, early warning the stakeholder for data 

collection, transmission and dissemination of the flood forecast and warning. Classifications of 

floods, flood limits and travel time (from one headworks/sites to other all the agencies involved in 

flood management process in Pakistan. Chapter I describes the causes of flood in Pakistan and the 


three categories, which cause flooding in the catchments of the Indus basin river system and its 

tributaries. The flood management process is also described in this chapter. The early warning and 

flood forecasting system is covered in chapter 2. The responsibilities of the stake holders involved 

in the management process are indicated in chapter 3. The process of flood forecast and flood 

warning dissemination system is described in chapter 4 of this SOP. 


Chapter 1 

Flood Causes & Management 

1.1 Define Floods 

Flood is defined as the high stage of a river at which the stream channel gets filled up and above 

which it overflows its banks and inundates the adjoining areas. 

1.2 Classification of Floods 

In Pakistan, floods are classified into five levels, shown in Table (1.1). 

Table 1.1 Classification of floods 

S.No. Classification Detail 

1. Low Flood It is that flood situation when the River is flowing within 

deep channel(s) but is about to spread over river 

islands/belas. 

2. Medium Flood The river is called in Medium Floods when River flows is 

partly inundating river island/belas but below half of its 

highest flood level 

3. High Flood When the water level of the River is almost fully 

submerging islands/belas and flowing upto high 

banks/buds with encroachment on freeboard. 

4. Very High Flood When the water level of the river flows is between high 

banks/bunds with encroachment on freeboard. 

5. Exceptionally High 

Flood 

It is that flood situation where there is imminent danger of 

overtopping/breaching or a breach has actually occurred or 

high bank areas become inundated. 

1.3 Flood Limits of the River/Nullah 

The limits of the flood in different rivers/nullahs at different places are shown in 

Table 1.2 & 1.3 


Table 1.2 Flood Limits (In Lacs of Cusecs) 

RIVER SITE DESIGN 

CAPACITY 

LOW MED HIGH VERY 

HIGH 

EX. 

HIGH 

INDUS TARBELA 15.0 2.5 3.75 5.0 6.5 8.0 

ATTOCK - 2.5 3.75 5.0 6.5 8.0 

KALABAGH 9.5 2.5 3.75 5.0 6.5 8.0 

CHASHMA 9.5 2.5 3.75 5.0 6.5 8.0 

TAUNSA 11.0 2.5 3.75 5.0 6.5 8.0 

GUDDU 12.0 2.0 3.5 5.0 7.0 9.0 

SUKKUR 9.0 2.0 3.5 5.0 7.0 9.0 

KOTRI 8.5 2.0 3.0 4.5 6.5 8.0 

JHELUM KOHALA - 1.0 1.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 

MANGLA 10.6 0.75 1.1 1.5 2.25 3.0 

RASUL 8.5 0.75 1.1 1.5 2.25 3.0 

CHENAB MARALA 11.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 4.0 6.0 

KHANKI 8.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 4.0 6.0 

QADIRABAD 8.07 1.0 1.5 2.0 4.0 6.0 

TRIMMU 6.45 1.5 2.0 3.0 4.5 6.0 

PANJNAD 7.0 1.5 2.0 3.0 4.5 6.0 

RAVI JASSAR 2.75 0.5 0.75 1.0 1.5 2.0 

RAVI SYPHON 4.5 0.4 0.65 0.9 1.35 1.8 

SHAHDARA 2.5 0.4 0.65 0.9 1.35 1.8 

BALLOKI 2.25 0.4 0.65 0.9 1.35 1.8 

SIDHNAI 1.5 0.3 0.46 0.6 0.9 1.3 

SUTLEJ SULEMANKI 3.25 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.75 2.25 

ISLAM 3.0 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.75 2.25 

KABUL WARSAK 5.4 0.3 0.45 1.0 2.0 4.0 

NOWSHERA 0.45 0.47 1.0 2.0 1.0 


Table 1.3 

S.No. 

Flood Limits 

NAME OF 

NULLAH 

PLACE 

LOW 

FLOOD 

MEDIUM 

FLOOD 

HIGH 

FLOOD 

VERY 

HIGH 

FLOOD 

EXCEPT 

HIGH 

FLOOD 

1. BEIN Chak Amru 1300 7000 20000 30000 35000 & 

above 

2. BEIN Shaker Garh 1600 3000 24000 26000 43000 & 

above 

3. AIK Ura 2000 9000 13000 16000 33000 & 

above 

4. BASANTAR Jassar 4100 4700 7500 11600 17800 & 

above 

5. DEG Q.S. Singh 3600 7500 15000 30000 35000 & 

above 

6. PALKHU Wazirabad 2500 3100 5000 25000 26000 & 

above 

1.4 Causes of Floods in Pakistan 

Pakistan has unique flood forecasting problems, which can be appreciated only if the 

meteorological causes of the floods are first understood. Floods in Pakistan are mainly caused by 

the heavy monsoon rains during the summer monsoon period from July to September. Officially, 

the flood season extends a little further to cater for any possible exceptions and covers the period 

form 15 th June to 15 th October. There are two situations which cause flood producing rains in the 

upper catchments (Annex-1) of the rivers. The two meteorological situations in relations to 

different conditions of intensity and movement of monsoon low/depression may produce three 

categories of floods as described below. 

i) Meteorological Situation For Category-I Floods 

This is the situation when the seasonal low, which is a semi permanent weather system generally 

sitated over south eastern Balochistan, south western Punjab and adjoining parts of Sindh gets 

occasionally intensified (due to the passage of a westerly wave) and thus causes the moisture from 

the Arabian Sea to be brought up to the upper catchments of Chenab and Jhelum rivers resulting in 

the heavy downpour along the windward slopes of the mountain ranges due to the orographic 

lifting of the moist air mass. Rainfall is generally short lived and occurs either in the late 

afternoon/evening or during the early morning lasting for a maximum period of about six hours. 

Floods under this condition are the Category-I floods, which may cause a short peak ranging from 

3 to 5 lac cusecs under extreme conditions. Most common1y, the peak is limited to within 3 lac 


cusecs only. This should pose no serious flood management problem for the Mangla reservoir due 

to short Rhiration and thus less volume. Tarbela is affected to a much lesser degree. 

Annex-2 depicts this condition, wherein the south westerly wind flow from the Arabian sea and the 

south easterly air current from the Bay of Bengal are indicated reaching the upper catchments of 

the Sutlej, Ravi, Chenab and Jhelum rivers. 

ii) 

Meteorological Situation for Category-II & Category-HI Floods 

The second flood generating meteorological situation is the one linked with a monsoon 

low/depression. Such monsoon systems originate from the Bay of Bengal region and then moving 

across India in a general west/north westerly direction arrives over Rajasthan or 

any of the adjoining states of India. After this the monsoon depression may take any one of the 

following three courses. 

a. Continue moving straight west causing heavy wide-spread rains over Sindh/Balochistan. 

However, no river flooding shall occur in this case. 

b. Recurve in the north east direction towards the upper catchments of Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab 

rivers causing extremely heavy rainfall and consequently the floods first across the border in 

India and then (within hours) at the rim stations in Pakistan. This is the Category-II flood 

situation as depicted in Annex-3. Under this situation floods first occur in river Chenab due to 

its peculiar topographic features which provide the most favorable conditions for the 

orographic lifting of the south west/south east monsoon currents. Ravi and Jhelum are affected 

next in sequence, followed by river Sutlej. 

The control structures over Sutlej & Ravi rivers in India significantly delay the arrival of 

flood wave in Pakistan. Floods in Jhelum under this situation may be significantly greater 

than the Category-I floods and may thus cause some flood management problem for the 

Mangla reservoir. However, the problem can be safely resolved by resorting to safe (minimum) 

pre-flood releases corresponding to the lower side of the forecast inflow range. Generally the 

flood peak at Mangla is limited to below 5 lac cusecs, but may reach 7 lac cusecs under an 

extreme condition. 


c. Continue moving in the northerly direction under the effect of a strong westerly wave over the 

plains of Lahore/Gujranwala Divisions to finally ending up over Rawalpindi/Hazara Divisions. 

The upper catchments of Chenab, Jhelum and Indus rivers come under its influence. 

Extremely heavy rains may occur over Mangla and/or Tarbela catchments under this situation, 

depending upon the final position of the depression causing extremely heavy floods 

(Category-III), as shown in Annex-4. The probable maximum flood (PMF) is an extreme case 

of Category-III flood. These are the most threatening floods for Mangla reservoir, a typical 

example of such floods was the 1992 flood. Forecasting of such floods at least 24 hours in 

advance should pose no problem, specially when 'S' band weather radars at Lahore and Mangla 

are available for system identification. Close coordination between FFD and WAPDA shall be 

necessary for the safe routing of such floods through the Mangla reservoir. WAPDA, after 

1992 catastrophic flood in Jhelum & Chenab rivers has devised an SOP for the routing of 

category I, II & III situation to safely pass the high inflows in Mangla. The SOP for Mangla is 

annexed as (5A, 5B, 5C). 

The meteorological factors linked with each situation are generally well known and 24-hours 

advance prediction should be quite possible in each case. In fact tracking of the depression is 

commenced from the Bay of Bengal and its position is reported on continuous basis in the 

daily flood forecast bulletin issued by FFD. Once a depression reaches Rajasthan, an extremely 

close watch is started using meteorological charts, and satellite cloud pictures. As the 

depression advances towards Pakistan and comes within the meteorological range of the 

Lahore Radar, an intensive watch would be started and color coded Met Alerts are issued as 

applicable. 

1.5 Flood Management Process 

(i) Flood management process in Pakistan is multi-functional involving a number of different 

organizations. The very first step in the process is the issuance of the flood forecast/warning. This 

function has been assigned to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) since the basic 

cause of the floods in Pakistan is the rainfall which can be best predicted and monitored by PMD 

utilizing the satellite cloud pictures and the quantitative precipitation measurement radar data, in 

addition to the conventional weather forecasting facilities. For quantitative flood forecasting the 

hydrological data is obtained (through the Provincial Irrigation Department and WAPDA. 


WAPDA's telemetric system is an important source of hydrological data for the flood forecasting 

purposes. 

(ii) This is supplemented by the manually observed data from the Surface Water Hydrology 

Project of WAPDA. In addition to data measurement sites at the main rivers, the Irrigation 

Department also maintains limited network of manually observed hydrological stations at barrages 

and important nullahs. This data is utilised for forecasting the floods in these nullahs, which 

besides causing damage to the adjacent areas, contribute substantially towards the main river flows 

during major floods. 

(iii) Cross Border Data: Pakistan has a unique flood forecasting problem in the season that 

flood generating rains occur across the border (in India and held Kashmir) and as a consequence 

floods flow down into Pakistan. This situation calls for obtaining the hydrometerological data of 

important river sites from across the border. This has been provided in an agreement between 

Pakistan & India (through the respective Commissioners for Indus waters). The agreement which 

is renewed annually, provides for the supply of river flows data of the selected sites at Sutlej, Ravi, 

Chenab and Jhelum rivers on the basis of reimbursement of the actual cost of data measurement 

collection and transmission to Pakistan. Generally the arrangement works satisfactorily, except 

when the data measurement sties in India/held Kashmir, are subjected to such severe floods which 

may cause interruption of the data communication system as it happened in 1988 flood season. 

(iv) Provincial Irrigation Departments (PIDs) are also actively involved in the flood mitigation 

process from the warning dissemination to the flood fighting stage. Flood fighting is mainly done 

at the Divisional level by the concerned Executive Engineers, while the overall flood related 

functions are looked after by a Superintending Engineer, who is designated as the Director Floods 

and Secretary Flood Commission. 

(v) Pakistan Army’s Corps of Engineers is involved in the flood relief operations and 

breaching of the flood bounds as and when required at the advice of the Provincial Irrigation 

Departments. Lately, however, Punjab Irrigation Department has decided not to involve Army in 

the breaching operations and instead to use bulldozers for creating the breach. 

(vi) At the Federal Government level, most of the flood management functions are planned and 

executed by the Ministry of Water & Power through the Federal Flood Commission (FFC), which 

provides the necessary Support to the provinces in the flood fighting process. FFC provides both 


the financial and technical support to the provinces in executing the flood protection works. In 

addition to this, FFC is supporting WAPDA and PMD in establishing a modern flood forecasting 

and warning system in the country. Three most modern ‘S-Band’ Doppler weather radars at 

Lahore, Sialkot & Mangla have been provided to PMD, while a new hydrometric data 

measurement and transmission system has also been established for WAPDA. The information on 

the extent and depth of inundation along both sides of the river is also available. Such information 

will enable issuance of early flood warnings to potential inundated areas. 


Chapter 2 

Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System 

Indus basin encompasses all the five major rivers. Indus is the main river of the system, 

while Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej are its main tributaries. Upper catchments of all 

the rivers are mountainous with some of the highest peaks of the world located within the 

Indus catchment. 

2.1 Types of System 

There are two systems, one is westerly wave & other is monsoon system. 

i) Precipitation in winter (which is mainly in the form of snow) is on account of 

eastward moving low pressure weather systems called westerly waves, which mostly 

move above 35 degrees latitude and deposit snow over the mountains. Snow deposited 

during winter becomes the major source of water supply into the rivers during summer. 

ii) Rainfall in summer is on account of monsoon weather system. Unlike the westerly 

waves the monsoon weather system is a low level weather system with heaviest rainfall 

limited to below five thousand feet elevation. Approach of the monsonic winds as well as 

that of the monsoon lows/depressions in from the east, south and south west directions. 

Mountains along the west, north and north east constitute the physical barriers, beyond 

which the monsonic winds cannot penetrate. Pir Punjal range along the east, the lesser 

Himalayas range to the north and the Suleman range to the west constitute the limits of 

monsoon activity and thus the areas of heavy rainfall. 

During summer, even though monsoons are the dominating weather system, yet the 

system of westerly waves also continues to affect the country along the Northern 

latitudes. Intensification of the monsoon weather system and northwards recurving of the 

monsoon depressions is due to the westerly waves. 


Heaviest and the most frequent summer rainfall. occurs within the upper catchment of 

river Chenab, making it to be the most flood prone river of the Indus river system, while 

Indus being mainly the snow fed river is the least flood affected river of the basin. 

2.2 Flood Forecasting System 

Process of flood generation undergoes three stages of development. 

a) First is the precipitation stage during which the excessive rains occur over the 

upper catchments of the rivers. Most of these catchments are mountainous areas 

lying on both sides of the border between Pakistan and India/held Kashmir. 

Prediction and monitoring of this rainfall forms the meteorological component of 

the flood forecasting system. 

b) Next is the flood formation stage which starts with the generation of runoff to 

form ultimately a flood wave at the confluence of the incremental flood flows. 

Forecasting of the flood flows using the actual and predicted rainfall and the flow 

data of the upstream stations constitutes the hydrorneterological component of the 

flood forecasting system. 

c) Lastly, the routing of the flood wave below the rim station of the rivers at the 

downstream sites is the hydrological component of the forecasting system. The 

flood wave while traveling from one site to another site takes some time. FFD on 

the basis of previous record and history has calculated the travel time from one 

site to another site for an average flood wave. Travel time is shown in table 1"+: 


Table 1.4 Showing Time of travel (normal flow i.e. Below low flood level) 

S.No. River From To Travel Time 

1. RIVER INDUS Mandori 

Kalabagh 

Chashma 

Taunsa 

Guddu 

Sukkar 

2. RIVER JHELUM Mangla 

Rasul 

3. RIVER CHENAB Marala 

Khanki 

Qadirabad 

Trirnmu 

Panjnad 

4. 

Madhopure 

RIVERRAVI 

Jassar 

Shahdara 

Balloki 

5. 

Sulemanki 

RIVER SUTLEJ 

Islam 

Schematic diagram IS shown at Annex-6 

Kalabagh 

Chashma 

Taunsa 

Mithankot+Guddu 

Sukkar 

Kotri 

Rasul 

Trimmu 

Khanki 

Qadirabad 

Trimmu 

Panjnad 

Mithankot 

Jassar 

Shahdara 

Balloki 

Sidhnai 

Islam 

Panjnad 

in 

24 

I 1 

72 

48+24 

24 

72 

12 

72 

12 

06 

48 

48 

24 

18 

36 

18 

72 

48 

72 

Computer models are used to get outputs from the hydrometerological as well as 

hydrological components of the system. The output from hydrometerological component 

gives the forecast of the flood peaks and flood levels at various downstream sites. The 

highest flood elevation thus fOnTIS the basis of estimate likely areas to be flooded along 

both banks of river by using the flood risk maps prepared for various flood magnitudes. 

2.3 Flood Forecasting 

Flood forecasting and early warning is used for alerting the likely damage center well in 

advance of the actual arrival of flood, to enable the people to move and also to remove 

the movable properties to safer places or to raised platforms specially constructed for this purpose. 

There are three kinds of flood forecasts 


i) Qualitative flood forecast 

ii) Quantitative flood forecast 

iii) Early warning 

Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) is the organization responsible for issuance of such 

forecasts as and when needed during the flood season. The detailed description of the 

various forecasts is given below. 

2.3.1 Qualitative Flood Forecast 

Qualitative flood forecasts are meant to provide advance information about the 

approaching weather systems, which may cause such rains as may result in the generation 

of significant flood wave in the Indus basin river system. Qualitative flood forecasts are 

issued at the time when the approaching weather system is still outside the river 

catchments but may move into it in the due course of time. Such forecasts have longer 

lead time and are thus extremely important in providing a reasonably advanced 

information to activate the flood fighting measures at all levels. The forecasts are always 

in the descriptive form which can be easily understood by the flood related agencies. 

2.3.1.1 Colour Coded Qualitative Flood Forecast. 

As already explained, major floods in the country occur under the effect of a monsoon 

low/depression. Category-Il and Category-Ill floods occur when a monsoon depression 

upon reaching Rajasthan state of India recurves to the north or north east. Chances of 

major flood may thus develop in case the monsoon low arrives over Rajasthan. This is the 

time that all the concerned Government agencies need be alerted to face the possible 

flood situation. A suitably worded information to this effect constitutes what is called the 

"Blue Alert", which shall be meant to indicate the possibility of flood within 24 to 72 

hours depending upon the future movement of the monsoon low/depression. 

In case a monsoon low/depression starts to stagnate over the same position it shall either 

fizzle out or may become stronger depending upon the availability of moisture into it. In 


case it starts to intensify, the chances of recurring shall increase and as it starts to move 

northwards, occurrence of flood may become imminent. Consequently, this is another 

important stage when another' Alert' is issued. This is a more alarming' Alert' than the 

previous one and is called "Yellow Alert". In case the low/depression starts to directly 

affect the catchment area and the heavy flood producing rains start, a 'Red Alert' is 

immediately issued. Quantification of the flood peak can only be done after the total 

storm rain becomes available. This, however, may be too late for rescue purposes as the 

time to peak flood, after the rain, is relatively small in case of most of the rivers on 

account of steep slope of the upper catchments. 

Thus, three qualitative flood forecasts called Blue, Yellow and Red alerts are issued to 

alert the concerned Government agencies. Typical formats of the three colour coded 

messages is given below. 

BLUE ALERT 

A monsoon low/depression arriving from Bay of Bengal has reached the Indian state of 

(Rajasthan/Haryana etc) and at present is located near _____________. Possibility of 

this low/depression moving towards the upper catchments of the Indus Basin rivers, to 

cause flood producing rains has now developed. Situation is being watched and further 

information shall follow as required. 

YELLOW ALERT 

Monsoon low/depression has now started to move north/northeast towards the country. 

Risk of heavy flood generating rains over the upper catchments of rivers _______________ has 

increased during the next 1 to 3 days. 

RED ALERT 

From 0700 to 1400 hrs _____________ inches/mm approx. of rainfall has fallen in the 

catchment areas of rivers Indus/Jhelum/Chenab/Ravi/Sutlej. High/Very High / Exceptionally 


High/Critical flood equivalent to ___________ to _____________ cuses is likely at 

____________________________________________ during next 12/24/36/48 hours. 

2.3.2 Quantitative Food Forecast 

Routine Daily Flood Forecast (RDFF) 

Routine daily flood forecast is issued once a day and is based upon the discharge measurements of 

0600 hrs (PST), latest APT picture, date of Lahore, Sialkot, Mangla and Islamabad radars, and the 

Indian discharge data as received through PCIW. The forecast is issued before the mid day for 24 

hrs period. 

The flood forecast has seven parts issued in two Bulletin A & Bulletin B. The Bulletin A contains 

five parts. The first part is the general situation of river flows describing the level of rivers in plain 

language. It also contains the future trend in the river flow at any gauging site. The second part 

gives the meteorological features i.e. the prevailing synoptic situation and weather pattern. The 

third part is the weather forecast expected during next 24 hours. The emphasize should be on rain. 

The fourth parts contain the amount of rainfall recorded during the last 24 hours in the country. 

The fifth part gives the general weather outlook next 48 hours. The forecast is generally rain 

oriented. 

The sixth & seventh parts are included in the Bulletin B. The sixth parts contain the weather / rain 

forecast in the upper catchment areas and in the lower catchment areas of all the rivers. The upper 

catchment is the area above rim stations and lower catchment is the areas below rim stations. The 

seventh and important part in main flood forecast. This is the quantitative forecast of river flows at 

22 sites including rim stations. First two columns indicate the rivers and their gauging sites. Third 

column is design capacity i.e the maximum flow that can pass through the particular site without 

any damage. The sixth & seventh column indicates the expected range of the river flow in cusecs 

& corresponding flood level. The last & eight columns show the level of very high flood flow at 

particular site. (Forecast Bulletins A& B attached as Annex- 7&8) 


23.3 Early Warning 

a) Significant Flood Forecast 

Under the effect of an approaching weather system the flood situation undergoes rapid 

fluctuations. The quite often necessities the issuance of a special flood forecast pertaining to a 

specific site . This is in fact the most important forecast issued by FFD. Most commonly it is 

issued in respect of the rim station but can also be issued for any other site downstream. A 

common early warning format is as given below:- 

GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN 

PAKISTAN METEOROLGICAL DEPARTMENT 

FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION 

46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE-54000 

Sr No_________ 

Dated_________ 

SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST 

River ____________________________ at _____________________________ 

Likely to cross ______________________________________________ cusecs 

(_________________________________________________ Flood Level) 

during the period from ________________________________ hours PST of 

_______________________________to_____________________ hours PST of 

_______________________________________________ 

For Chief Meteorologist 

Time of Issue_______________ Hrs PST 


) Areal Flood Inundation Flood Forecast 

This forecast will be issued on the basis of flood inundation maps corresponding to different flood 

levels when the flood exceeds the exceptionally high flood level and the spillover is expected to 

occur causing inundation of the areas along the river channel. 

The forecast may take the shape as given below:- 

River Sutlej between the reach Sulemanki to Islam is likely to reach an exceptionally high flood 

level amounting to discharge ranging between ______ and ________ Consequently , the under 

mentioned areas are likely to come under water to extent as mentioned against each . 

District Village Depth of Water 

2.4 Miscellaneous Flood Forecast / Information 

a) Weather / Flood Forecast 

Such important Government functionaries as are directly or indirectly related to the flood 

mitigation process but are not involved in the flood fighting operation do not need the flood data at 

each flood measurement site but definitely need to be kept informed of the flood and weather 

situation in general . In order to cater for this, weather and flood forecast has three parts. Part-1 

indicates the prevailing meteorological situation .Part-II gives the rainfall recorded during the last 

24 hours. Part III gives the weather and the flood forecast in descriptive form which can be easily 

understood by a non technical person. 

b) Flood Information to Media 

Flood information to the electronic and press media is often passed to the public through press 

briefings conducted in the office of the Chief Met FFD. Invitation to the press is sent through the 

press Information Department ( PID) of the Punjab Govt .A representative of the PID is made 

available on two shift duty roster basis to be present during the morning as well as evening hours 

in the Flood Warning Centre. Press briefings are generally conducted in the evening at about 6 


PM, only on occasions when flood situation is serious enough to call for such briefings to filter out 

unauthorized and incorrect flood information from reaching public. A written report to be passed 

to radio and TV is also given out by the press representative. 

C ) 

Special Press Briefings By Minister of Water & Power / Chairman FFC or Chairman 

NDMA 

Chief Met FFD may advise the Minister of Water & Power/ Chairman FFC or Chairman NDMA to 

conduct special press briefings with a view to providing such information to the public as is 

considered extremely useful in the context of flood mitigation. This advice is rendered as and when a 

serious flood situation is positively developing or has actually developed. The outline for the briefings 

is to be prepared by the Chief Net FFD under the advice of the authority, i.e Minister of Water & 

Power / Chairman FFC or Chairman NDMA. 

Withstanding and specific instructions given to Chief Met FFD by the Authority (conducting the 

briefings) a general outline of such briefings may be as follows: 

i ) 

A brief mention of the prevailing weather system indicating its past track , present position and 

future track . Indicate the areas under heavy rain. 

Ii ) 

Mention of a few heavy rainfall amounts in ( India or Pakistan ) and any reported damage . In 

case heaviest point rainfall data is not available; Radar based rainfall may be mentioned indicating the 

time duration and areas of the heaviest rainfall. 

Iii ) 

A brief on present and future flood situation in respect of each river indicating any damages 

(If so far reported) 

Iv ) 

Mention of the flood mitigation arrangements to cope with flood emergency. Advice to the 

Flood prone population to remain vigilant and follow the advice to refrain from publishing unauthentic 

flood information for incorrect reporting. 

V ) Question / answer session ( Indicate answers to the commonly asked question ) 

Vi ) 

Concluding remarks. 


Chapter 3 

Responsibilities of the FFD and Stakeholders 

3.1 General 

Flood management is a multifunctional process involving organization. The stakeholders, which 

play major role in the flood management , is PIDA , WAPDA, provincial relief organization, 

Pakistan Army, NDMA, PCIW, Emergency Relief Cell, FFC and FFD. Proper understanding of 

functions of these organizations is briefly described below. 

3.2 Responsibilities of Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) 

FFD of the Pakistan Meteorological Department plays a pivotal role in the entire flood mitigation 

process. Hydro meteorological data from the various national and international sources is received 

in this office which is then processed to produce flood forecasts and warnings to be disseminated 

outwards to various national organizations (Annex-9) 

Major actions required to be taken by the FFD before, during and after the flood season are 

summarized below. 

Flood preparatory Measures 

I ) 

Ensure serviceability of the meteorological equipment including QPM Radars Lahore, 

Mangla and Sialkot, Teleprinter network, FAX, APT& Internet. 

Ii ) 

Ensure availability of the following items in sufficient to last for the whole of flood season: 

Surface and upper air meteorological charts, isohyetal maps, various forecast forms, data 

tabulation sheets stationery etc. 

Iii ) 

Iv ) 

Update the calibration of the radar and flood forecasting models 

Ensure availability of sufficient staff strength to maintain round the clock roster of duties 

for the meteorological and hydrological work. 


V ) 

Liaison with PTC’s Coordination officer provide 24 hours maintenance services for the 

teleprinters, Internet & the office and residential telephones of all the flood related 

functionaries. 

Vi ) Conduct a familiarization training of the senior cadre and junior cadre government , 

functionaries actively involved in the process of flood mitigation. Senior cadre training 

may be limited to one day only and must include such functionaries as the Relief 

Commissioner, Director General ( Relief) , Chief Engineer, Hydrology WAPDA, Chief 

Engineer FFC , Chief Engineer, Hydrology and drainage PIDA, Director Flood PIDA , 

Director PDMA. 

Training for the junior cadrs may extend to a period of one week for the persons from 

various provincial and federal departments actually posted on flood duties. 

3.2.1 Functions during the Flood Season 

Chief Met, FFD is personally responsible for the issuance of timely and reliable flood 

forecast/warning to afford pre-flood imitation measures to reduce damage to the life and 

property due to floods. He is required to remain in touch with his office even outside the 

working hours to maintain a close watch on the flood generating weather situations. In case 

situation for Category-II or category-III floods develop he is to give advance verbal 

briefings to R.C. Punjab, Chairman FFC, DG Engineers ( Army), DG Met, Chairman 

NDMA and Member (water) WAPDA. Such briefings should be over and above the 

written qualitative forecasts issued when the approaching monsoon low/ depressions draws 

closer. In order to avoid undue public panic, flood forecasts to the public should be given, 

only when the possibility of floods has positively developed, in which case suitably tailored 

flood forecast must be provided to the press and the electronic media in time. The benefit 

of the improved flood forecasting system must reach the public by way of more reliable 

and more advance flood information to them. It is also important that the necessary trust be 


placed in the forecasts issued by Chief Met FFD and under no circumstances the forecast 

issued by him allowed to be amended without his consent. This is because the flood 

forecasting is the sole prerogative of the Chief Met FFD and no one else in the present setup 

has the necessary technical means or the know-how to make any change. 

Under a serious pre-flood situation Chief Meteorologist FFD may invite director Floods of 

irrigation Department, Chief Engineer (H & WM) of WPADA and necessary flood related 

actions. Additionally, daily press briefings may be commenced in consultation with the 

Relief Commissioner Punjab. 

In case of category-III flood situation a forecast of PMF in respect of Mangla / Tarbela be 

issued in yes/ no terms and Member (water) WAPDA be personally informed of it by Chief 

Meteorologist, FFD Lahore. 

3.3 Stakeholders 

3.3.1 Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authority (PIDA) 

PIDA plays a front line role in the process of flood forecasting as well as flood mitigation. 

Major flood related functions include. 

I ) 

Ii ) 

Iii ) 

Iv ) 

Flow measurements at the specific sites at rivers , canals and nullahs 

Planning , design construction and maintenance of flood protection works. 

Maintenance of data communication network to provide the river flow data to FFD. 

Supervision of the flood warning center ( on behalf of Relief Commissioner ) to 

ensure timely dissemination of the flood forecasts / warning. 

Vi ) 

Occasional updating of the divisional flood fighting plans and execution of such 

plans during flood emergency. 

Vii ) 

Implementation of the divisional flood fighting plan and ezxecution of such plans 

during flood emergency. 

3.3.2 National Disaster Management Authority ( NDMA) 


The National Disaster Management Authority and Provincial Disaster Management 

Authorities Whose raisings were recently approved by the Govt. Immediately 

mobilized the relief effort in a coordinated and synchronized manner . 

NDMA provides a well coordinated, synergized and timely relief to affected areas 

with a view to bringing normalcy of life in the shortest possible time:- 

I ) 

Short Term Implication 

(a) 

(b) 

Rescue / Crisis management of affected population in distress. 

Provision of immediate relief in the form of food, water, shelters 

and health care. 

(c) 

(d) 

(e) 

Restoration of communication infrastructure and essential services. 

Distribution of compensation to affected households. 

Early recovery of affected areas. 

(2) Long Term Implication 

(a) 

Capcity building of PDMAs, Sindh, Baluchistan, Punjab and 

NWFP to handle relief , rehabilitation and reconstruction. 

(b) 

Rehabilitation and Reconstaruction by PDMAs through line 

ministries in coordination and under the direction of NDMA. 

3.3.3 WAPDA 

WAPDA is actively involved in the Flood Forecasting process by providing the 

much needed river and rain data from its telemetric gauge sites within 

the upper catchments of Indus , Jhelum &Chenab rivers. During the 

previous flood forecasting project ( from 1977 to 1987), WAPDA was 

assigned the responsibility to establish and maintain a telemetric 

network of river and rain stations to support the flood forecasting 

models. A total of about 40 such stations were established . The number 

was gradually reduced to about 20 due to maintenance problems, 


especially in respect of the river gauging equipment which developed 

frequent problem. It was decided to assign three categories to the 

telemetric stations in relation to their relative importance in flood 

forecasting. WAPDA maintained only fifteen catergory-1 stations during 

the last years. The system has now been replaced with a new set of 

equipment using the meteor burst based communication system. 

WAPDA‘s telemetric network is directly linked to FFD and is looked 

after by an officer of the level of research office whose office is located 

within the premises of FFD. 

Beside WAPDA‘s involvement is providing the hydrometric flood data, 

it is also involved in providing the data from such hydraulic structure as 

Mangla and Tarbela dams and the Chashma Barrage 

A great scope exists in future in assigning the flood mitigation role to 

Mangla and tarbela reservoirs by linking up the operation of the two 

reservoirs with flood forecasting system. Resorting to pre-flood releases 

on the basis of the flood forecasts can create necessary flood storage. 

3.3.4 Provincial relief Organization 

Ultimate aim of flood warning is to reduce the potential loss to the life 

and property of the community living in the flood liable areas. 

Provincial relief organizations are charged with the responsibility 

pertaining to disaster preparedness, emergency response, and post 

disaster activities pertaining to all disasters including flood. 

Consequently, under the present set up the flood Warni8ng Center has 

been placed under the Relief commissioner in addition to his normal 

duties. Relief department primarily functions through control and 

coordination of the personnel and resources of other govt departments 


generally organized asd committee like flood commission and flood 

Warning Center. Relief function at the district and Tehsil level are 

performed through the DCO, who coordinates with the other 

departments to execute the flood mitigation function at the district level. 

Flood preparatory actions required to be taken the Relief Commissioner 

include:- 

i) Arranging inspection of the flood protection works by the 

Irrigation Department and Pakistan army to ensure that all vital 

flood protection bunds etc. are in a satisfactory state of 

maintenance. 

ii) 

To establish flood warning center and the flood centers at the 

district and Tehsil Levels. 

iii) 

To ensure that all flood related agencies / department involved in 

the process of flood mitigation are fully geared to perform the 

functions pertaining to their respective areas in the process of the 

flood mitigation. 

iv) 

To ensure that flood forecasts / warnings are disseminated 

without loss of time to all concerned and they are fully aware of 

the action to be taken under each situation. 

These are some of the major actions required to be taken by the 

Relief Commissioner before the onset of the flood season. 

During the flood emergency, however, he is to supervise the 

flood relief functions carried out by the district administration 

with help of Pakistan Army and other government Departments. 

These are some of the major actions required actions required to 

be taken Relief Commissioner before the onset of the flood 


season. During the flood emergency, however, he is to supervise 

the flood relief functions carried out by the district administration 

with the help of Pakistan Army and other govt departments. 

3.3.5 Pakistan Army 

Pakistan army’s corps of engineers under the command and 

control of Engineer-in-Chief ( E-IN-C) is charged with the 

responsibility to provide the necessary help to the civil authority 

to carry out the rescue and relief operations during and after the 

floods. It is the responsibility of the provincial govt to provide all 

the support equipment ( boats, life jackets, vehicles , tents etc ) to 

the Army for such operation. 

Pakistan Army’s flood related function encompasses all the three 

phases of flood operation from the pre-flood to post flood phases 

including the all important flood phase. Pre-flood phase is the 

flood preparatory phase during which the adequacy and the 

serviceability of the flood fighting equipment are ensured. A 

number of pre-flood meetings are held at the level of E-IN-E to 

help coordinate the activities of the other organizations / agencies 

in providing the required support to the Army. Since Punjab is 

the most flood province, it is the Relief Commissioner Punjab , 

who provides the bulk of the flood fighting equipment to the 

army. The CC Engineers 4 Corps of the Army that is stationed at 

Lahore acts as liaison officer for the purpose. P0re-flood 

inspections of the flood protection structures are also carried out 

by the respective commander corps of engineers for their 


espective areas to ensure that the structures ( bunds , barrages , 

spurs etc ) are in satisfactory stae of maintenance .Discrepancy , 

if any is brought to the notice of the relief commissioner and 

PIDA. Sometimes joint inspections with PIDA are carried out to 

save time 

Pakistan Army’s major flood related starts after the flood occurs. An officer of the 4 Corps engineers is placed on duty 

in the flood warning center to keep a close watch on the flood situation. All flood forecasts and warni9ng are 

communicated to the CC Engineers 4 Corps in time to be transmitted to the D.G. Engineers and all other CC Corps of 


the Engineers. Lack of understanding of the flood forecast has been a major problem faced by the Army in the past, 

since they are no acquainted with the commonly used. Hydro meteorological terms and no arrangement of the preflood 

training of the concerned CC Engineers corps has so far been made As the flood arrives , units of the Army 

move out to their respective areas of responsibility and carry out relief and rescue operations in coordination with civil 

administration . A major post flood meeting is held under the chairmanship of E-IN-E to discuss the performance of all 

the flood related agencies with the view to bring about the necessary improvement in future. 

3.3.6 Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters (PCIW) 

Pakistan has a unique flood- forecasting problem in the sense that greater part of the flood producing upper catchments of 

the Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab rivers lies across the border in India / held Kashmir. Further more a number of control 

structure like dams and barrages etc, exist over the rivers across the border with the result that the free conditions are 

destroyed making the operation of the rainfall / runoff model extremely difficult. The situation underlines the need for the 

river flow data from across the border in respect of the important sites over the rivers in India / held Kashmir. 

Consequently, an agreement has been signed between the two countries through their respective Commissioners for Indus 

water which includes a provision to receive from India such river flow and rainfall data as is considered important for flood 

forecasting in Pakistan. 

A number of river flow stations are specified for this purpose. Normally once a day the data is received by the Pakistan 

Commissioner for Indus waters. The data is then passed on to the Chief Met FFD. Frequency of data reception is increased 

to six hourly and even to hourly in relation to the prevailing flood situation. Pakistan commissioner for Indus waters is thus 

responsible to provide to the Chief Met FFD the much needed data from India for use in the flood forecasting models. 

Many problems have occurred in the past when the India data in respect of river Ravi was passed on to the press which 

resulted in the issuance of false alarm to the public. This is because large-scale attenuation of the flood wave occurs 

between Madhopur (India) and Jassar due to the physiographic characteristic of the catchments and the river bed. 

Incidences are not uncommon when the flood peak at Jassar is reduced to 1/4 th of its size at Madhopur.It has thus decided 

that the India data as received through the Commissioner for Indus waters must not be made public to avoid false alarm 

arising out of the wrong interpretation of the data. .Leakage of this data to the press must be specially guarded since the 


press may publish threatening front wave as given in the India report for Madhopur. Eventually when nothing arrives as 

compared to what was reported; press may start to criticize India for providing the incorrect flood information. This puts 

Pakistan Commissioner for Indus waters in an embarrassing situation viz, a viz , his Indian counterpart. 

It has therefore been decided that flood forecast as issued by chief Met FFD only be given to the Media ( both electronic & 

press ) and all other concerned agencies. 

Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters is the only forum through which any clarification or further information can 

be obtained from India with regard to flood data or the flood control structures etc. 

3.3.7 Emergency Relief Cell (ERC) 

Emergency Relief Cell has been established under the cabinet division and is controlled by the Cabinet Secretary. The DG 

Relief heads the cell. Main function of the Emergency relief cell includes 

i) Planning and assessment of relief requirements of major disasters 

ii) 

iii) 

iv) 

Stock pilling of basic necessities needed during emergency such as dry ration, tarpaulins, blankets etc. 

Establishing emergency fund upon declaration of any part of the country as calamity affected. 

Maintaining contact with UNDP and other international aid giving agencies. 

v) Making arrangements of disaster relief assistance from other countries. 

ERC maintains two warehouses for stocking relief goods and the cell also maintains relief goods dispatch 

organization. For the dispatch of the relief goods ERC maintains a fleet of helicopter which are given under the control 

of Army aviation base at Dhamial and are flown by the Army pilots for the relief missions under the instructions of 

ERC. 

Located at Islamabad ERC maintains contact with Federal Flood Commission (FFC) and is one of the recipients of the 

daily flood report issued by FFC. 

3.3.8 Federal Flood Commission (FFC) 


FFC was established in 1977 to provide the necessary infrastructure at the federal level to help the provinces in 

meeting the technical and financial resources required to carry out the Flood mitigation Measures. 

During the recent past FFC has played a unique role in remodeling the flood mitigation policy of the country on 

modern lines with the help of the foreign loan mostly obtained from Asian Development bank ( ADB) 

The policy being implemented by the FFC encompasses both the engineering as well as the non-engineering measures. 

Non-engineering measures mainly pertain to establishment of a modern flood forecasting and warning system to 

provide timely and reliable flood information to the concerned flood mitigation agencies and the public in general . 

One big step towards this end is establishment of the QPM Doppler radar at Lahore , Sialkot & Mangla to afford the 

acquisition of the much needed rainfall data from across the border over Sutlej , Beas , Ravi, Chenab & Jhelum 

catchments through the process of remote sensing. Flood inundation maps are prepared to facilities the identification 

of the villages likely to be inundated as against those considered safe, for a specific level of flood to be determined on 

the basis of running the hydrodynamic model. 

A number of flood protection worked have been executed and some are still in the process of implementation by the 

provinces through financial and technical support provided by FFC. 

In the context of flood warning dissemination Chairman FFC ( being also the Chief Engineering Advisor to the 

Federal Govt ) renders suitable advice to the President and Prime Minister as and when the situation so demands. He 

carries out this function either directly or thorough the Minister of Water & Power. 


Chapter 4 

Flood Forecast & Early Warning Dissemination System 

4.1 Background Information 

Since the establishment of the flood forecasting and warning system , the dissemination of the flood forecasts / 

warning was entrusted to an office designated as the Flood warning Center ( FWC) , which was temporarily 

established every year within the premises of the Flood Forecasting Division ( FFD) for the duration of the flood 

season ( 15 June to 15 Oct ) . The FWC was constituted of the representatives from such departments / agencies which 

are directly or indirectly related to the flood problem. This includes WAPDA, Pakistan Railways, Pakistan Army, 

Irrigation dept; Highways dept; and Information department of Punjab. The center functioned under the overall 

control of the Relief Commissioner Punjab, who was the Senior Member Board of revenue and performed flood duties 

as an additional assignment. Operation control of center was exercised by the Director Flood of the Punjab Irrigation 

Department while the logistics of the center were looked after by DG, Relief Department, who was in turn assisted by 

his two Directors i.e. , Director Operation and Director Technical. 

The FWC was supported by the Police Tele Communication center which was simultaneously established within the 

premises of PMD’S Flood Forecasting Office at 46-Jail Road Lahore under the orders of the Relief Commissioner. 

The Police Tele communication Center provided the necessary communication links through police wireless sets 

between the e FWC and all the Irrigation sites (including the river headwork) and District / tehsil Level flood centers 

temporarily established during the flood season under the control of Deputy Commissioners. Reception and 

dissemination of the flood data and the flood forecasts / warning respectively was done by FWC through the Police 

Tele Communication center. Flood data constituted the rain and discharge data of the river as well as that of the natural 

streams / nallahs considered vial for the flood forecasting purposes. Flood data of the WAPDA sites was received 

through WAPDA communication center Sunny View Lahore, where it was passed on to WAPDA sub-office at the 

Flood forecasting Office. Flood data of the river sites of river Indus in the province of Sindh was received through HF 

radio sets placed at WAPDA sub office ( at 46-Jail Road Lahore ). Discharge data and the flood forecast of Guddu , 


Sukkur and Kotri barrages were received and disseminated respectively using this HF radio communication link 

between FWC Lahore and Tughlaq House Karachi 

Under the above mentioned flood warning system, the forecasting and the dissemination function were completely 

bifurcated and entrusted to Flood Forecasting center of PMD and FWC of the province of Punjab respectively. 

Consequently, the Director Flood Forecasting Center of PMD had no say in the dissemination of the flood forecasts 

issued by him. His responsibility ended after the forecast issued by him was handed over to the FWC , since the 

dissemination was the sole responsibility of the FWC under the control of the Relief Commissioner ( RC ) and through 

him the Director Flood ( Irrigation department ) 

4.2 Prevailing Flood Warning Dissemination System 

With the passage of time, operation of the earlier dissemination system inherited some discrepancies, which raised 

confusions in the mind of the public and the Govt agencies which are listed below: 

a) Police telecommunication system (for the reception of Flood data and the dissemination of flood 

forecasts/ warning) be replaced with some advanced automatic data communication system. However, until such time 

a system becomes available the police operator posted on flood duties be given some training to enable detection of 

simple data errors and also to understand the urgency and importance of timely data and flood forecasts 

communications. 

b) Dissemination of the flood / warning at least to the important recipients be done by the Flood Forecasting 

division to ensure timely dissemination under the overall supervision of the Chief Meteorologist FFD . 

c) some mechanism to ensure proper coordination between the various departments / agencies involved in 

the flood mitigation process be established. This could be done by an authority having the full legal 

jurisdiction over all the concerned agencies. 

The problem and the possible remedies were frequently discussed in flood meetings at Provincial and Federal 

government levels. As a result of such efforts the earlier flood warning dissemination system underwent 

gradual changes as reflected in the system currently in vogue. Salient features of current flood warning 

dissemination system are as follows: 


i) a pre-flood familiarization training has been started since last few years to acquaint the newly inducted 

people of Irrigation and WAPDA with the commonly used hydromet terms. 

ii) 

Flood forecasting and warning Center was redesignated as the National Flood Forecasting Bureau 

(NFFB) having the following constitution. 

Director PMD 

Director Hydrology WAPDA 

Representative of Indus Water Commission 

Director Floods (Irrigation) 

(Head) 

(Member) 

(Member) 

(Member) 

In 2001, PMD has upgraded the post of Director NFFB and now Chief Met. (BS-20) is heading this office with the 

new name Flood forecasting Division. The chief meteorologist FFD is authorized to call the meeting of 

the FFD as and when the serious flood situation occurs and / or lack of coordination comes to his notice 

calling for immediate remedial action. 

Iii ) 

FFD has taken in hand the dissemination of the flood forecasts/ warning to considerably a large number 

of recipients directly or indirectly concerned with the flood mitigation process, over and above the 

dissemination being done by the FWC. 

iv) 

Press briefings have been started in the office of the Chief Meteorologist FFD as a regular feature to 

ensure correct and authentic and weather information to the public. Such briefings are arranged through 

the representative of the Punjab information department on duty at the FWC, only when the flood 

situation is or likely to become serious enough to call for such briefings. 

Considerable improvement has been made in the dissemination system since the time that it was initially started. A 

much better coordination now exists with WAPDA Regular meeting or verbal advice is given by Chief 

Meteorologist FFD to G.M (Planning & Coordination) WAPDA during the flood season as and when 

asked for . 

4.3 Updated Flood Warning dissemination Procedure 

The existing dissemination process has been reviewed and lists of the recipients of flood information have been 

streamlined. Basically there are two types of flood information required to be provided for use by the 


appropriate recipient: the flood forecasts and the flood data. Whereas the flood forecasts are disseminated 

by FFD as well as by the FWC, the flood data is disseminated by the FWC only. 

4.3.2 Dissemination of Flood Data 

Besides the flood forecasts, the flood data is also disseminated to such Govt functionaries as are required 

to closely monitor the flood level at various headworks. The data consists of the gauge and discharge 

data measured at every six hours. 

Recommendations 

The SOP has been prepared after many years of practical experience and it has been found that SOP can 

only be practicable when a general consensus exists between all the stakeholders. Otherwise the spirit of 

the SOP would not be alive. The understanding of the social scenario of the country is very vital 

otherwise operation of the SOP in isolation would add burden on the poor and unaware people. 

Keeping in view the above, some recommendations have been proposed for better operation of the SOP: 

(i) 

Proper Training & Understanding 

The general public specially the stakeholders must have adequate knowledge of the weather system and 

the forecasting of the system. For this purpose some training education must be imparted to the 

responsible section of the people and amongst the stakeholders so that dissemination of the forecast may 

be realized in true sense. 

(ii) 

Media Role 

Local print & electronic media should also understand the purpose of the flood forecast and should 

refrain from dishing out wrong or confused information to the public which may result in spreading panic 

& chaos in the civil population. 

(iii) 

Single voice 

The flood forecast issuing authority has a unique role in this SOP which should not be compromised, 

because the focal person has all the knowledge and data regarding the building or recession of the flood 


wave. Any wrong or mutilated picture of flood may result in increasing the difficulties and aggravating 

the situation. 

(iv) 

Infrastructure development 

The general public should be aware of the flood prone areas and may be discouraged to raising any 

structure within the area. Govt should mark & advertise flood prone areas through the print and 

electronic media for the information of the public. No utility services like gas, telephone, electricity 

should be provided in the flood prone areas particularly within the river banks. Proper record may be 

maintained regarding the raising of building in the specified areas. 

In the hilly areas where flash flooding usually creates havoc, construction of building should also be 

disallowed in the vicinity of the hill torrents paths. Similarly edges of the roads near rivers should also be 

banned for construction of any big structure like shopping centers, educational institutions, hotels, Govt 

office buildings etc. 


FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIR 

(CATEGORY-I FLOODS) 

2 TO 5 LAC CFS 

Annexture -5A 

1. Flood built up confirmation at EL 1202 feet 

2. Balance inflow, outflow upto high flood limit 150,000 cfs 

3. Watch till elevation rises to 1203 feet 

4. If inflow still rising increase outflow to 250,000 cfs 


6. if inflow still rising increase outflow to 300,000 cfs 





11. If reservoir level still rising with: Continue same outflow and 

a) Evidence of still rising with: then start reducing gradually 

as the situation permits. 

b) Evidenc4 of further flood buildup Open the main spillway to cater for inflow / 

outflow 

Note: 

Flood warning station data and FFD forecast shall be kept in view all the time. As soon as inflow hydrograph recession 

is confirmed the outflows should be reduced gradually for downstream relief, subject to the safety of the project. 



(CATEGORY-II FLOODS) 

5 TO 7 LAC CFS 






6. if inflow still rising increase outflow to 425,,000 cfs 





Annexture-5B 

11. If reservoir level still rising with: Continue same outflow and 

a) Evidence of still rising with: then start reducing gradually 

as the situation permits. 

b) Evidenc4 of further flood buildup Open the main spillway to cater 

for inflow / outflow 

Note: 




Annexture-5C 


(CATEGORY-III FLOODS) 

ABOVE 7 LAC CFS 








8. If inflow still rising increase outflow to 475,,000 cfs 



11. If reservoir level still rising with: Continue same outflow and then start reducing 

gradually as the situation permits. 

a) Evidence of still rising with: 

b) Evidenc4 of further flood buildup Open the main spillway to 

cater for inflow / outflow 

Note:

SOP for Flood Forecasting & Early Warning - UNESCO Islamabad

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