SOP for Flood Forecasting & Early Warning - UNESCO Islamabad

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Table 1.4 Showing Time of travel (normal flow i.e. Below low flood level) S.No. River From To Travel Time 1. RIVER INDUS Mandori Kalabagh Chashma Taunsa Guddu Sukkar 2. RIVER JHELUM Mangla Rasul 3. RIVER CHENAB Marala Khanki Qadirabad Trirnmu Panjnad 4. Madhopure RIVERRAVI Jassar Shahdara Balloki 5. Sulemanki RIVER SUTLEJ Islam Schematic diagram IS shown at Annex-6 Kalabagh Chashma Taunsa Mithankot+Guddu Sukkar Kotri Rasul Trimmu Khanki Qadirabad Trimmu Panjnad Mithankot Jassar Shahdara Balloki Sidhnai Islam Panjnad in 24 I 1 72 48+24 24 72 12 72 12 06 48 48 24 18 36 18 72 48 72 Computer models are used to get outputs from the hydrometerological as well as hydrological components of the system. The output from hydrometerological component gives the forecast of the flood peaks and flood levels at various downstream sites. The highest flood elevation thus fOnTIS the basis of estimate likely areas to be flooded along both banks of river by using the flood risk maps prepared for various flood magnitudes. 2.3 Flood Forecasting Flood forecasting and early warning is used for alerting the likely damage center well in advance of the actual arrival of flood, to enable the people to move and also to remove the movable properties to safer places or to raised platforms specially constructed for this purpose. There are three kinds of flood forecasts c:\documents and settings\administrator\desktop\cd material nust\international training workshop\session 5\2_sop pmd_51 pages.doc
i) Qualitative flood forecast ii) Quantitative flood forecast iii) Early warning Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) is the organization responsible for issuance of such forecasts as and when needed during the flood season. The detailed description of the various forecasts is given below. 2.3.1 Qualitative Flood Forecast Qualitative flood forecasts are meant to provide advance information about the approaching weather systems, which may cause such rains as may result in the generation of significant flood wave in the Indus basin river system. Qualitative flood forecasts are issued at the time when the approaching weather system is still outside the river catchments but may move into it in the due course of time. Such forecasts have longer lead time and are thus extremely important in providing a reasonably advanced information to activate the flood fighting measures at all levels. The forecasts are always in the descriptive form which can be easily understood by the flood related agencies. 2.3.1.1 Colour Coded Qualitative Flood Forecast. As already explained, major floods in the country occur under the effect of a monsoon low/depression. Category-Il and Category-Ill floods occur when a monsoon depression upon reaching Rajasthan state of India recurves to the north or north east. Chances of major flood may thus develop in case the monsoon low arrives over Rajasthan. This is the time that all the concerned Government agencies need be alerted to face the possible flood situation. A suitably worded information to this effect constitutes what is called the "Blue Alert", which shall be meant to indicate the possibility of flood within 24 to 72 hours depending upon the future movement of the monsoon low/depression. In case a monsoon low/depression starts to stagnate over the same position it shall either fizzle out or may become stronger depending upon the availability of moisture into it. In c:\documents and settings\administrator\desktop\cd material nust\international training workshop\session 5\2_sop pmd_51 pages.doc
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Page 3 and 4: Introduction Planes of Pakistan hav
Page 5 and 6: Chapter 1 Flood Causes & Management
Page 7 and 8: Table 1.3 S.No. Flood Limits NAME O
Page 9 and 10: c. Continue moving in the northerly
Page 11 and 12: the financial and technical support
Page 13: Heaviest and the most frequent summ
Page 17 and 18: High/Critical flood equivalent to _
Page 19 and 20: ) Areal Flood Inundation Flood Fore
Page 21 and 22: Chapter 3 Responsibilities of the F
Page 23 and 24: placed in the forecasts issued by C
Page 25 and 26: especially in respect of the river
Page 27 and 28: season. During the flood emergency,
Page 29 and 30: the Engineers. Lack of understandin
Page 31 and 32: FFC was established in 1977 to prov
Page 33 and 34: Sukkur and Kotri barrages were rece
Page 35 and 36: appropriate recipient: the flood fo
Page 37 and 38: FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERV
Page 39 and 40: Annexture-5C FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH
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SOP for Flood Forecasting & Early Warning - UNESCO Islamabad

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