SOP for Flood Forecasting & Early Warning - UNESCO Islamabad
SOP for Flood Forecasting & Early Warning - UNESCO Islamabad
SOP for Flood Forecasting & Early Warning - UNESCO Islamabad
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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS<br />
S. No<br />
1. <strong>SOP</strong> Standard Operating Procedure<br />
2. PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department<br />
3. FFD <strong>Flood</strong> <strong>Forecasting</strong> Division<br />
4. FFC Federal <strong>Flood</strong> Commission<br />
5. NDMA National Disaster Management Authority<br />
6. PMF Probable Maximum <strong>Flood</strong><br />
7. PMP Probable Maximum Precipitation<br />
8. WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority<br />
9. PID Provincial Irrigation Departments<br />
10. PIDA Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authority<br />
11. RDFF Routine Daily <strong>Flood</strong> Forecast<br />
12. GMT Greenwich Mean Time<br />
13. PCIW Pakistan Commissioner <strong>for</strong> Indus Water<br />
14. ERC Emergency Relief Cell<br />
15. UNDP United Nation Development Programme<br />
16. ADB Asian Development Bank<br />
17. APT Automatic Picture Transmission<br />
18. RTT Radio Telegraphic Transmission<br />
19. H & WM Hydrology and Water Management<br />
20. FWC <strong>Flood</strong> <strong>Warning</strong> Center<br />
21. RC Relief Commissioner<br />
22. SWH Surface Water Hydrology<br />
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Introduction<br />
Planes of Pakistan have quite often been swept across by severe flood. In fact out of all the natural<br />
hazards floods are the single most devastating natural hazard in Pakistan. Statistically every five<br />
years a flood of exceptionally high level occurs in the Chenab, which is the flashiest channel out of<br />
all the five major rivers. Every ten years a major flood of exceptionally high level passes through<br />
all the five rivers. Even 15 years a super flood of 1988 or 1992 type occurs. Loss of life and<br />
property associated with floods has been colossal. In the year 1973 more than 3 million homes<br />
were destroyed and 160 persons lost their lives. The 1976 flood demolished over 10 million houses<br />
while 425 lives were lost with losses amounting to Rs. 6 billion. In 1988 an unprecedented flood<br />
occurred towards the end of September inflicting Rs. 17 billion worth of damage to the country.<br />
The super flood of 1992 surpassed all previous records with the damage estimated at Rs. 50<br />
billion.<br />
The modern flood fighting strategy is always a blend of engineering as well as non-engineering<br />
measures. This is because the meteorological phenomena causing the floods is outside the purview<br />
of the human activity and thus the occurrence of the rainfall and floods cannot be checked.<br />
However advance in<strong>for</strong>mation of occurrence of meteorological events can be used to <strong>for</strong>ecast<br />
floods and adopt safety measures well in time.<br />
The flood mitigation planning in Indus basin consists of both the engineering as well as nonengineering<br />
measures. Watershed management above the rim station (the first gauging stations on<br />
rivers after they enter in Pakistan) <strong>for</strong>ms the starting point of the planning. Below the rim station,<br />
several flood protection works have been provided to protect the facilities. Most important part of<br />
the flood mitigation planning is the establishment of a reliable flood early warning system so as to<br />
af<strong>for</strong>d the timely evacuation of people from the threatened area, use of Mangla and Tarbela<br />
reservoirs on the basis of the <strong>for</strong>ecast of the expected in flows (through improved flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting<br />
facilities) is also an important aspect of the flood mitigation process <strong>for</strong> reducing the downstream<br />
flood damages by phasing out the flood waves at the confluences.<br />
The <strong>SOP</strong> contains the procedure of the flood <strong>for</strong>ecast, early warning the stakeholder <strong>for</strong> data<br />
collection, transmission and dissemination of the flood <strong>for</strong>ecast and warning. Classifications of<br />
floods, flood limits and travel time (from one headworks/sites to other all the agencies involved in<br />
flood management process in Pakistan. Chapter I describes the causes of flood in Pakistan and the<br />
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three categories, which cause flooding in the catchments of the Indus basin river system and its<br />
tributaries. The flood management process is also described in this chapter. The early warning and<br />
flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting system is covered in chapter 2. The responsibilities of the stake holders involved<br />
in the management process are indicated in chapter 3. The process of flood <strong>for</strong>ecast and flood<br />
warning dissemination system is described in chapter 4 of this <strong>SOP</strong>.<br />
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Chapter 1<br />
<strong>Flood</strong> Causes & Management<br />
1.1 Define <strong>Flood</strong>s<br />
<strong>Flood</strong> is defined as the high stage of a river at which the stream channel gets filled up and above<br />
which it overflows its banks and inundates the adjoining areas.<br />
1.2 Classification of <strong>Flood</strong>s<br />
In Pakistan, floods are classified into five levels, shown in Table (1.1).<br />
Table 1.1 Classification of floods<br />
S.No. Classification Detail<br />
1. Low <strong>Flood</strong> It is that flood situation when the River is flowing within<br />
deep channel(s) but is about to spread over river<br />
islands/belas.<br />
2. Medium <strong>Flood</strong> The river is called in Medium <strong>Flood</strong>s when River flows is<br />
partly inundating river island/belas but below half of its<br />
highest flood level<br />
3. High <strong>Flood</strong> When the water level of the River is almost fully<br />
submerging islands/belas and flowing upto high<br />
banks/buds with encroachment on freeboard.<br />
4. Very High <strong>Flood</strong> When the water level of the river flows is between high<br />
banks/bunds with encroachment on freeboard.<br />
5. Exceptionally High<br />
<strong>Flood</strong><br />
It is that flood situation where there is imminent danger of<br />
overtopping/breaching or a breach has actually occurred or<br />
high bank areas become inundated.<br />
1.3 <strong>Flood</strong> Limits of the River/Nullah<br />
The limits of the flood in different rivers/nullahs at different places are shown in<br />
Table 1.2 & 1.3<br />
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Table 1.2 <strong>Flood</strong> Limits (In Lacs of Cusecs)<br />
RIVER SITE DESIGN<br />
CAPACITY<br />
LOW MED HIGH VERY<br />
HIGH<br />
EX.<br />
HIGH<br />
INDUS TARBELA 15.0 2.5 3.75 5.0 6.5 8.0<br />
ATTOCK - 2.5 3.75 5.0 6.5 8.0<br />
KALABAGH 9.5 2.5 3.75 5.0 6.5 8.0<br />
CHASHMA 9.5 2.5 3.75 5.0 6.5 8.0<br />
TAUNSA 11.0 2.5 3.75 5.0 6.5 8.0<br />
GUDDU 12.0 2.0 3.5 5.0 7.0 9.0<br />
SUKKUR 9.0 2.0 3.5 5.0 7.0 9.0<br />
KOTRI 8.5 2.0 3.0 4.5 6.5 8.0<br />
JHELUM KOHALA - 1.0 1.5 2.0 3.0 4.0<br />
MANGLA 10.6 0.75 1.1 1.5 2.25 3.0<br />
RASUL 8.5 0.75 1.1 1.5 2.25 3.0<br />
CHENAB MARALA 11.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 4.0 6.0<br />
KHANKI 8.0 1.0 1.5 2.0 4.0 6.0<br />
QADIRABAD 8.07 1.0 1.5 2.0 4.0 6.0<br />
TRIMMU 6.45 1.5 2.0 3.0 4.5 6.0<br />
PANJNAD 7.0 1.5 2.0 3.0 4.5 6.0<br />
RAVI JASSAR 2.75 0.5 0.75 1.0 1.5 2.0<br />
RAVI SYPHON 4.5 0.4 0.65 0.9 1.35 1.8<br />
SHAHDARA 2.5 0.4 0.65 0.9 1.35 1.8<br />
BALLOKI 2.25 0.4 0.65 0.9 1.35 1.8<br />
SIDHNAI 1.5 0.3 0.46 0.6 0.9 1.3<br />
SUTLEJ SULEMANKI 3.25 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.75 2.25<br />
ISLAM 3.0 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.75 2.25<br />
KABUL WARSAK 5.4 0.3 0.45 1.0 2.0 4.0<br />
NOWSHERA 0.45 0.47 1.0 2.0 1.0<br />
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Table 1.3<br />
S.No.<br />
<strong>Flood</strong> Limits<br />
NAME OF<br />
NULLAH<br />
PLACE<br />
LOW<br />
FLOOD<br />
MEDIUM<br />
FLOOD<br />
HIGH<br />
FLOOD<br />
VERY<br />
HIGH<br />
FLOOD<br />
EXCEPT<br />
HIGH<br />
FLOOD<br />
1. BEIN Chak Amru 1300 7000 20000 30000 35000 &<br />
above<br />
2. BEIN Shaker Garh 1600 3000 24000 26000 43000 &<br />
above<br />
3. AIK Ura 2000 9000 13000 16000 33000 &<br />
above<br />
4. BASANTAR Jassar 4100 4700 7500 11600 17800 &<br />
above<br />
5. DEG Q.S. Singh 3600 7500 15000 30000 35000 &<br />
above<br />
6. PALKHU Wazirabad 2500 3100 5000 25000 26000 &<br />
above<br />
1.4 Causes of <strong>Flood</strong>s in Pakistan<br />
Pakistan has unique flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting problems, which can be appreciated only if the<br />
meteorological causes of the floods are first understood. <strong>Flood</strong>s in Pakistan are mainly caused by<br />
the heavy monsoon rains during the summer monsoon period from July to September. Officially,<br />
the flood season extends a little further to cater <strong>for</strong> any possible exceptions and covers the period<br />
<strong>for</strong>m 15 th June to 15 th October. There are two situations which cause flood producing rains in the<br />
upper catchments (Annex-1) of the rivers. The two meteorological situations in relations to<br />
different conditions of intensity and movement of monsoon low/depression may produce three<br />
categories of floods as described below.<br />
i) Meteorological Situation For Category-I <strong>Flood</strong>s<br />
This is the situation when the seasonal low, which is a semi permanent weather system generally<br />
sitated over south eastern Balochistan, south western Punjab and adjoining parts of Sindh gets<br />
occasionally intensified (due to the passage of a westerly wave) and thus causes the moisture from<br />
the Arabian Sea to be brought up to the upper catchments of Chenab and Jhelum rivers resulting in<br />
the heavy downpour along the windward slopes of the mountain ranges due to the orographic<br />
lifting of the moist air mass. Rainfall is generally short lived and occurs either in the late<br />
afternoon/evening or during the early morning lasting <strong>for</strong> a maximum period of about six hours.<br />
<strong>Flood</strong>s under this condition are the Category-I floods, which may cause a short peak ranging from<br />
3 to 5 lac cusecs under extreme conditions. Most common1y, the peak is limited to within 3 lac<br />
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cusecs only. This should pose no serious flood management problem <strong>for</strong> the Mangla reservoir due<br />
to short Rhiration and thus less volume. Tarbela is affected to a much lesser degree.<br />
Annex-2 depicts this condition, wherein the south westerly wind flow from the Arabian sea and the<br />
south easterly air current from the Bay of Bengal are indicated reaching the upper catchments of<br />
the Sutlej, Ravi, Chenab and Jhelum rivers.<br />
ii)<br />
Meteorological Situation <strong>for</strong> Category-II & Category-HI <strong>Flood</strong>s<br />
The second flood generating meteorological situation is the one linked with a monsoon<br />
low/depression. Such monsoon systems originate from the Bay of Bengal region and then moving<br />
across India in a general west/north westerly direction arrives over Rajasthan or<br />
any of the adjoining states of India. After this the monsoon depression may take any one of the<br />
following three courses.<br />
a. Continue moving straight west causing heavy wide-spread rains over Sindh/Balochistan.<br />
However, no river flooding shall occur in this case.<br />
b. Recurve in the north east direction towards the upper catchments of Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab<br />
rivers causing extremely heavy rainfall and consequently the floods first across the border in<br />
India and then (within hours) at the rim stations in Pakistan. This is the Category-II flood<br />
situation as depicted in Annex-3. Under this situation floods first occur in river Chenab due to<br />
its peculiar topographic features which provide the most favorable conditions <strong>for</strong> the<br />
orographic lifting of the south west/south east monsoon currents. Ravi and Jhelum are affected<br />
next in sequence, followed by river Sutlej.<br />
The control structures over Sutlej & Ravi rivers in India significantly delay the arrival of<br />
flood wave in Pakistan. <strong>Flood</strong>s in Jhelum under this situation may be significantly greater<br />
than the Category-I floods and may thus cause some flood management problem <strong>for</strong> the<br />
Mangla reservoir. However, the problem can be safely resolved by resorting to safe (minimum)<br />
pre-flood releases corresponding to the lower side of the <strong>for</strong>ecast inflow range. Generally the<br />
flood peak at Mangla is limited to below 5 lac cusecs, but may reach 7 lac cusecs under an<br />
extreme condition.<br />
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c. Continue moving in the northerly direction under the effect of a strong westerly wave over the<br />
plains of Lahore/Gujranwala Divisions to finally ending up over Rawalpindi/Hazara Divisions.<br />
The upper catchments of Chenab, Jhelum and Indus rivers come under its influence.<br />
Extremely heavy rains may occur over Mangla and/or Tarbela catchments under this situation,<br />
depending upon the final position of the depression causing extremely heavy floods<br />
(Category-III), as shown in Annex-4. The probable maximum flood (PMF) is an extreme case<br />
of Category-III flood. These are the most threatening floods <strong>for</strong> Mangla reservoir, a typical<br />
example of such floods was the 1992 flood. <strong>Forecasting</strong> of such floods at least 24 hours in<br />
advance should pose no problem, specially when 'S' band weather radars at Lahore and Mangla<br />
are available <strong>for</strong> system identification. Close coordination between FFD and WAPDA shall be<br />
necessary <strong>for</strong> the safe routing of such floods through the Mangla reservoir. WAPDA, after<br />
1992 catastrophic flood in Jhelum & Chenab rivers has devised an <strong>SOP</strong> <strong>for</strong> the routing of<br />
category I, II & III situation to safely pass the high inflows in Mangla. The <strong>SOP</strong> <strong>for</strong> Mangla is<br />
annexed as (5A, 5B, 5C).<br />
The meteorological factors linked with each situation are generally well known and 24-hours<br />
advance prediction should be quite possible in each case. In fact tracking of the depression is<br />
commenced from the Bay of Bengal and its position is reported on continuous basis in the<br />
daily flood <strong>for</strong>ecast bulletin issued by FFD. Once a depression reaches Rajasthan, an extremely<br />
close watch is started using meteorological charts, and satellite cloud pictures. As the<br />
depression advances towards Pakistan and comes within the meteorological range of the<br />
Lahore Radar, an intensive watch would be started and color coded Met Alerts are issued as<br />
applicable.<br />
1.5 <strong>Flood</strong> Management Process<br />
(i) <strong>Flood</strong> management process in Pakistan is multi-functional involving a number of different<br />
organizations. The very first step in the process is the issuance of the flood <strong>for</strong>ecast/warning. This<br />
function has been assigned to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) since the basic<br />
cause of the floods in Pakistan is the rainfall which can be best predicted and monitored by PMD<br />
utilizing the satellite cloud pictures and the quantitative precipitation measurement radar data, in<br />
addition to the conventional weather <strong>for</strong>ecasting facilities. For quantitative flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting the<br />
hydrological data is obtained (through the Provincial Irrigation Department and WAPDA.<br />
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WAPDA's telemetric system is an important source of hydrological data <strong>for</strong> the flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting<br />
purposes.<br />
(ii) This is supplemented by the manually observed data from the Surface Water Hydrology<br />
Project of WAPDA. In addition to data measurement sites at the main rivers, the Irrigation<br />
Department also maintains limited network of manually observed hydrological stations at barrages<br />
and important nullahs. This data is utilised <strong>for</strong> <strong>for</strong>ecasting the floods in these nullahs, which<br />
besides causing damage to the adjacent areas, contribute substantially towards the main river flows<br />
during major floods.<br />
(iii) Cross Border Data: Pakistan has a unique flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting problem in the season that<br />
flood generating rains occur across the border (in India and held Kashmir) and as a consequence<br />
floods flow down into Pakistan. This situation calls <strong>for</strong> obtaining the hydrometerological data of<br />
important river sites from across the border. This has been provided in an agreement between<br />
Pakistan & India (through the respective Commissioners <strong>for</strong> Indus waters). The agreement which<br />
is renewed annually, provides <strong>for</strong> the supply of river flows data of the selected sites at Sutlej, Ravi,<br />
Chenab and Jhelum rivers on the basis of reimbursement of the actual cost of data measurement<br />
collection and transmission to Pakistan. Generally the arrangement works satisfactorily, except<br />
when the data measurement sties in India/held Kashmir, are subjected to such severe floods which<br />
may cause interruption of the data communication system as it happened in 1988 flood season.<br />
(iv) Provincial Irrigation Departments (PIDs) are also actively involved in the flood mitigation<br />
process from the warning dissemination to the flood fighting stage. <strong>Flood</strong> fighting is mainly done<br />
at the Divisional level by the concerned Executive Engineers, while the overall flood related<br />
functions are looked after by a Superintending Engineer, who is designated as the Director <strong>Flood</strong>s<br />
and Secretary <strong>Flood</strong> Commission.<br />
(v) Pakistan Army’s Corps of Engineers is involved in the flood relief operations and<br />
breaching of the flood bounds as and when required at the advice of the Provincial Irrigation<br />
Departments. Lately, however, Punjab Irrigation Department has decided not to involve Army in<br />
the breaching operations and instead to use bulldozers <strong>for</strong> creating the breach.<br />
(vi) At the Federal Government level, most of the flood management functions are planned and<br />
executed by the Ministry of Water & Power through the Federal <strong>Flood</strong> Commission (FFC), which<br />
provides the necessary Support to the provinces in the flood fighting process. FFC provides both<br />
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the financial and technical support to the provinces in executing the flood protection works. In<br />
addition to this, FFC is supporting WAPDA and PMD in establishing a modern flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting<br />
and warning system in the country. Three most modern ‘S-Band’ Doppler weather radars at<br />
Lahore, Sialkot & Mangla have been provided to PMD, while a new hydrometric data<br />
measurement and transmission system has also been established <strong>for</strong> WAPDA. The in<strong>for</strong>mation on<br />
the extent and depth of inundation along both sides of the river is also available. Such in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
will enable issuance of early flood warnings to potential inundated areas.<br />
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Chapter 2<br />
<strong>Flood</strong> <strong>Forecasting</strong> and <strong>Early</strong> <strong>Warning</strong> System<br />
Indus basin encompasses all the five major rivers. Indus is the main river of the system,<br />
while Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej are its main tributaries. Upper catchments of all<br />
the rivers are mountainous with some of the highest peaks of the world located within the<br />
Indus catchment.<br />
2.1 Types of System<br />
There are two systems, one is westerly wave & other is monsoon system.<br />
i) Precipitation in winter (which is mainly in the <strong>for</strong>m of snow) is on account of<br />
eastward moving low pressure weather systems called westerly waves, which mostly<br />
move above 35 degrees latitude and deposit snow over the mountains. Snow deposited<br />
during winter becomes the major source of water supply into the rivers during summer.<br />
ii) Rainfall in summer is on account of monsoon weather system. Unlike the westerly<br />
waves the monsoon weather system is a low level weather system with heaviest rainfall<br />
limited to below five thousand feet elevation. Approach of the monsonic winds as well as<br />
that of the monsoon lows/depressions in from the east, south and south west directions.<br />
Mountains along the west, north and north east constitute the physical barriers, beyond<br />
which the monsonic winds cannot penetrate. Pir Punjal range along the east, the lesser<br />
Himalayas range to the north and the Suleman range to the west constitute the limits of<br />
monsoon activity and thus the areas of heavy rainfall.<br />
During summer, even though monsoons are the dominating weather system, yet the<br />
system of westerly waves also continues to affect the country along the Northern<br />
latitudes. Intensification of the monsoon weather system and northwards recurving of the<br />
monsoon depressions is due to the westerly waves.<br />
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Heaviest and the most frequent summer rainfall. occurs within the upper catchment of<br />
river Chenab, making it to be the most flood prone river of the Indus river system, while<br />
Indus being mainly the snow fed river is the least flood affected river of the basin.<br />
2.2 <strong>Flood</strong> <strong>Forecasting</strong> System<br />
Process of flood generation undergoes three stages of development.<br />
a) First is the precipitation stage during which the excessive rains occur over the<br />
upper catchments of the rivers. Most of these catchments are mountainous areas<br />
lying on both sides of the border between Pakistan and India/held Kashmir.<br />
Prediction and monitoring of this rainfall <strong>for</strong>ms the meteorological component of<br />
the flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting system.<br />
b) Next is the flood <strong>for</strong>mation stage which starts with the generation of runoff to<br />
<strong>for</strong>m ultimately a flood wave at the confluence of the incremental flood flows.<br />
<strong>Forecasting</strong> of the flood flows using the actual and predicted rainfall and the flow<br />
data of the upstream stations constitutes the hydrorneterological component of the<br />
flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting system.<br />
c) Lastly, the routing of the flood wave below the rim station of the rivers at the<br />
downstream sites is the hydrological component of the <strong>for</strong>ecasting system. The<br />
flood wave while traveling from one site to another site takes some time. FFD on<br />
the basis of previous record and history has calculated the travel time from one<br />
site to another site <strong>for</strong> an average flood wave. Travel time is shown in table 1"+:<br />
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Table 1.4 Showing Time of travel (normal flow i.e. Below low flood level)<br />
S.No. River From To Travel Time<br />
1. RIVER INDUS Mandori<br />
Kalabagh<br />
Chashma<br />
Taunsa<br />
Guddu<br />
Sukkar<br />
2. RIVER JHELUM Mangla<br />
Rasul<br />
3. RIVER CHENAB Marala<br />
Khanki<br />
Qadirabad<br />
Trirnmu<br />
Panjnad<br />
4.<br />
Madhopure<br />
RIVERRAVI<br />
Jassar<br />
Shahdara<br />
Balloki<br />
5.<br />
Sulemanki<br />
RIVER SUTLEJ<br />
Islam<br />
Schematic diagram IS shown at Annex-6<br />
Kalabagh<br />
Chashma<br />
Taunsa<br />
Mithankot+Guddu<br />
Sukkar<br />
Kotri<br />
Rasul<br />
Trimmu<br />
Khanki<br />
Qadirabad<br />
Trimmu<br />
Panjnad<br />
Mithankot<br />
Jassar<br />
Shahdara<br />
Balloki<br />
Sidhnai<br />
Islam<br />
Panjnad<br />
in<br />
24<br />
I 1<br />
72<br />
48+24<br />
24<br />
72<br />
12<br />
72<br />
12<br />
06<br />
48<br />
48<br />
24<br />
18<br />
36<br />
18<br />
72<br />
48<br />
72<br />
Computer models are used to get outputs from the hydrometerological as well as<br />
hydrological components of the system. The output from hydrometerological component<br />
gives the <strong>for</strong>ecast of the flood peaks and flood levels at various downstream sites. The<br />
highest flood elevation thus fOnTIS the basis of estimate likely areas to be flooded along<br />
both banks of river by using the flood risk maps prepared <strong>for</strong> various flood magnitudes.<br />
2.3 <strong>Flood</strong> <strong>Forecasting</strong><br />
<strong>Flood</strong> <strong>for</strong>ecasting and early warning is used <strong>for</strong> alerting the likely damage center well in<br />
advance of the actual arrival of flood, to enable the people to move and also to remove<br />
the movable properties to safer places or to raised plat<strong>for</strong>ms specially constructed <strong>for</strong> this purpose.<br />
There are three kinds of flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts<br />
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i) Qualitative flood <strong>for</strong>ecast<br />
ii) Quantitative flood <strong>for</strong>ecast<br />
iii) <strong>Early</strong> warning<br />
<strong>Flood</strong> <strong>Forecasting</strong> Division (FFD) is the organization responsible <strong>for</strong> issuance of such<br />
<strong>for</strong>ecasts as and when needed during the flood season. The detailed description of the<br />
various <strong>for</strong>ecasts is given below.<br />
2.3.1 Qualitative <strong>Flood</strong> Forecast<br />
Qualitative flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts are meant to provide advance in<strong>for</strong>mation about the<br />
approaching weather systems, which may cause such rains as may result in the generation<br />
of significant flood wave in the Indus basin river system. Qualitative flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts are<br />
issued at the time when the approaching weather system is still outside the river<br />
catchments but may move into it in the due course of time. Such <strong>for</strong>ecasts have longer<br />
lead time and are thus extremely important in providing a reasonably advanced<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation to activate the flood fighting measures at all levels. The <strong>for</strong>ecasts are always<br />
in the descriptive <strong>for</strong>m which can be easily understood by the flood related agencies.<br />
2.3.1.1 Colour Coded Qualitative <strong>Flood</strong> Forecast.<br />
As already explained, major floods in the country occur under the effect of a monsoon<br />
low/depression. Category-Il and Category-Ill floods occur when a monsoon depression<br />
upon reaching Rajasthan state of India recurves to the north or north east. Chances of<br />
major flood may thus develop in case the monsoon low arrives over Rajasthan. This is the<br />
time that all the concerned Government agencies need be alerted to face the possible<br />
flood situation. A suitably worded in<strong>for</strong>mation to this effect constitutes what is called the<br />
"Blue Alert", which shall be meant to indicate the possibility of flood within 24 to 72<br />
hours depending upon the future movement of the monsoon low/depression.<br />
In case a monsoon low/depression starts to stagnate over the same position it shall either<br />
fizzle out or may become stronger depending upon the availability of moisture into it. In<br />
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case it starts to intensify, the chances of recurring shall increase and as it starts to move<br />
northwards, occurrence of flood may become imminent. Consequently, this is another<br />
important stage when another' Alert' is issued. This is a more alarming' Alert' than the<br />
previous one and is called "Yellow Alert". In case the low/depression starts to directly<br />
affect the catchment area and the heavy flood producing rains start, a 'Red Alert' is<br />
immediately issued. Quantification of the flood peak can only be done after the total<br />
storm rain becomes available. This, however, may be too late <strong>for</strong> rescue purposes as the<br />
time to peak flood, after the rain, is relatively small in case of most of the rivers on<br />
account of steep slope of the upper catchments.<br />
Thus, three qualitative flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts called Blue, Yellow and Red alerts are issued to<br />
alert the concerned Government agencies. Typical <strong>for</strong>mats of the three colour coded<br />
messages is given below.<br />
BLUE ALERT<br />
A monsoon low/depression arriving from Bay of Bengal has reached the Indian state of<br />
(Rajasthan/Haryana etc) and at present is located near _____________. Possibility of<br />
this low/depression moving towards the upper catchments of the Indus Basin rivers, to<br />
cause flood producing rains has now developed. Situation is being watched and further<br />
in<strong>for</strong>mation shall follow as required.<br />
YELLOW ALERT<br />
Monsoon low/depression has now started to move north/northeast towards the country.<br />
Risk of heavy flood generating rains over the upper catchments of rivers _______________ has<br />
increased during the next 1 to 3 days.<br />
RED ALERT<br />
From 0700 to 1400 hrs _____________ inches/mm approx. of rainfall has fallen in the<br />
catchment areas of rivers Indus/Jhelum/Chenab/Ravi/Sutlej. High/Very High / Exceptionally<br />
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High/Critical flood equivalent to ___________ to _____________ cuses is likely at<br />
____________________________________________ during next 12/24/36/48 hours.<br />
2.3.2 Quantitative Food Forecast<br />
Routine Daily <strong>Flood</strong> Forecast (RDFF)<br />
Routine daily flood <strong>for</strong>ecast is issued once a day and is based upon the discharge measurements of<br />
0600 hrs (PST), latest APT picture, date of Lahore, Sialkot, Mangla and <strong>Islamabad</strong> radars, and the<br />
Indian discharge data as received through PCIW. The <strong>for</strong>ecast is issued be<strong>for</strong>e the mid day <strong>for</strong> 24<br />
hrs period.<br />
The flood <strong>for</strong>ecast has seven parts issued in two Bulletin A & Bulletin B. The Bulletin A contains<br />
five parts. The first part is the general situation of river flows describing the level of rivers in plain<br />
language. It also contains the future trend in the river flow at any gauging site. The second part<br />
gives the meteorological features i.e. the prevailing synoptic situation and weather pattern. The<br />
third part is the weather <strong>for</strong>ecast expected during next 24 hours. The emphasize should be on rain.<br />
The fourth parts contain the amount of rainfall recorded during the last 24 hours in the country.<br />
The fifth part gives the general weather outlook next 48 hours. The <strong>for</strong>ecast is generally rain<br />
oriented.<br />
The sixth & seventh parts are included in the Bulletin B. The sixth parts contain the weather / rain<br />
<strong>for</strong>ecast in the upper catchment areas and in the lower catchment areas of all the rivers. The upper<br />
catchment is the area above rim stations and lower catchment is the areas below rim stations. The<br />
seventh and important part in main flood <strong>for</strong>ecast. This is the quantitative <strong>for</strong>ecast of river flows at<br />
22 sites including rim stations. First two columns indicate the rivers and their gauging sites. Third<br />
column is design capacity i.e the maximum flow that can pass through the particular site without<br />
any damage. The sixth & seventh column indicates the expected range of the river flow in cusecs<br />
& corresponding flood level. The last & eight columns show the level of very high flood flow at<br />
particular site. (Forecast Bulletins A& B attached as Annex- 7&8)<br />
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23.3 <strong>Early</strong> <strong>Warning</strong><br />
a) Significant <strong>Flood</strong> Forecast<br />
Under the effect of an approaching weather system the flood situation undergoes rapid<br />
fluctuations. The quite often necessities the issuance of a special flood <strong>for</strong>ecast pertaining to a<br />
specific site . This is in fact the most important <strong>for</strong>ecast issued by FFD. Most commonly it is<br />
issued in respect of the rim station but can also be issued <strong>for</strong> any other site downstream. A<br />
common early warning <strong>for</strong>mat is as given below:-<br />
GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN<br />
PAKISTAN METEOROLGICAL DEPARTMENT<br />
FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION<br />
46-JAIL ROAD LAHORE-54000<br />
Sr No_________<br />
Dated_________<br />
SIGNIFICANT FLOOD FORECAST<br />
River ____________________________ at _____________________________<br />
Likely to cross ______________________________________________ cusecs<br />
(_________________________________________________ <strong>Flood</strong> Level)<br />
during the period from ________________________________ hours PST of<br />
_______________________________to_____________________ hours PST of<br />
_______________________________________________<br />
For Chief Meteorologist<br />
Time of Issue_______________ Hrs PST<br />
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) Areal <strong>Flood</strong> Inundation <strong>Flood</strong> Forecast<br />
This <strong>for</strong>ecast will be issued on the basis of flood inundation maps corresponding to different flood<br />
levels when the flood exceeds the exceptionally high flood level and the spillover is expected to<br />
occur causing inundation of the areas along the river channel.<br />
The <strong>for</strong>ecast may take the shape as given below:-<br />
River Sutlej between the reach Sulemanki to Islam is likely to reach an exceptionally high flood<br />
level amounting to discharge ranging between ______ and ________ Consequently , the under<br />
mentioned areas are likely to come under water to extent as mentioned against each .<br />
District Village Depth of Water<br />
2.4 Miscellaneous <strong>Flood</strong> Forecast / In<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
a) Weather / <strong>Flood</strong> Forecast<br />
Such important Government functionaries as are directly or indirectly related to the flood<br />
mitigation process but are not involved in the flood fighting operation do not need the flood data at<br />
each flood measurement site but definitely need to be kept in<strong>for</strong>med of the flood and weather<br />
situation in general . In order to cater <strong>for</strong> this, weather and flood <strong>for</strong>ecast has three parts. Part-1<br />
indicates the prevailing meteorological situation .Part-II gives the rainfall recorded during the last<br />
24 hours. Part III gives the weather and the flood <strong>for</strong>ecast in descriptive <strong>for</strong>m which can be easily<br />
understood by a non technical person.<br />
b) <strong>Flood</strong> In<strong>for</strong>mation to Media<br />
<strong>Flood</strong> in<strong>for</strong>mation to the electronic and press media is often passed to the public through press<br />
briefings conducted in the office of the Chief Met FFD. Invitation to the press is sent through the<br />
press In<strong>for</strong>mation Department ( PID) of the Punjab Govt .A representative of the PID is made<br />
available on two shift duty roster basis to be present during the morning as well as evening hours<br />
in the <strong>Flood</strong> <strong>Warning</strong> Centre. Press briefings are generally conducted in the evening at about 6<br />
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PM, only on occasions when flood situation is serious enough to call <strong>for</strong> such briefings to filter out<br />
unauthorized and incorrect flood in<strong>for</strong>mation from reaching public. A written report to be passed<br />
to radio and TV is also given out by the press representative.<br />
C )<br />
Special Press Briefings By Minister of Water & Power / Chairman FFC or Chairman<br />
NDMA<br />
Chief Met FFD may advise the Minister of Water & Power/ Chairman FFC or Chairman NDMA to<br />
conduct special press briefings with a view to providing such in<strong>for</strong>mation to the public as is<br />
considered extremely useful in the context of flood mitigation. This advice is rendered as and when a<br />
serious flood situation is positively developing or has actually developed. The outline <strong>for</strong> the briefings<br />
is to be prepared by the Chief Net FFD under the advice of the authority, i.e Minister of Water &<br />
Power / Chairman FFC or Chairman NDMA.<br />
Withstanding and specific instructions given to Chief Met FFD by the Authority (conducting the<br />
briefings) a general outline of such briefings may be as follows:<br />
i )<br />
A brief mention of the prevailing weather system indicating its past track , present position and<br />
future track . Indicate the areas under heavy rain.<br />
Ii )<br />
Mention of a few heavy rainfall amounts in ( India or Pakistan ) and any reported damage . In<br />
case heaviest point rainfall data is not available; Radar based rainfall may be mentioned indicating the<br />
time duration and areas of the heaviest rainfall.<br />
Iii )<br />
A brief on present and future flood situation in respect of each river indicating any damages<br />
(If so far reported)<br />
Iv )<br />
Mention of the flood mitigation arrangements to cope with flood emergency. Advice to the<br />
<strong>Flood</strong> prone population to remain vigilant and follow the advice to refrain from publishing unauthentic<br />
flood in<strong>for</strong>mation <strong>for</strong> incorrect reporting.<br />
V ) Question / answer session ( Indicate answers to the commonly asked question )<br />
Vi )<br />
Concluding remarks.<br />
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Chapter 3<br />
Responsibilities of the FFD and Stakeholders<br />
3.1 General<br />
<strong>Flood</strong> management is a multifunctional process involving organization. The stakeholders, which<br />
play major role in the flood management , is PIDA , WAPDA, provincial relief organization,<br />
Pakistan Army, NDMA, PCIW, Emergency Relief Cell, FFC and FFD. Proper understanding of<br />
functions of these organizations is briefly described below.<br />
3.2 Responsibilities of <strong>Flood</strong> <strong>Forecasting</strong> Division (FFD)<br />
FFD of the Pakistan Meteorological Department plays a pivotal role in the entire flood mitigation<br />
process. Hydro meteorological data from the various national and international sources is received<br />
in this office which is then processed to produce flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts and warnings to be disseminated<br />
outwards to various national organizations (Annex-9)<br />
Major actions required to be taken by the FFD be<strong>for</strong>e, during and after the flood season are<br />
summarized below.<br />
<strong>Flood</strong> preparatory Measures<br />
I )<br />
Ensure serviceability of the meteorological equipment including QPM Radars Lahore,<br />
Mangla and Sialkot, Teleprinter network, FAX, APT& Internet.<br />
Ii )<br />
Ensure availability of the following items in sufficient to last <strong>for</strong> the whole of flood season:<br />
Surface and upper air meteorological charts, isohyetal maps, various <strong>for</strong>ecast <strong>for</strong>ms, data<br />
tabulation sheets stationery etc.<br />
Iii )<br />
Iv )<br />
Update the calibration of the radar and flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting models<br />
Ensure availability of sufficient staff strength to maintain round the clock roster of duties<br />
<strong>for</strong> the meteorological and hydrological work.<br />
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V )<br />
Liaison with PTC’s Coordination officer provide 24 hours maintenance services <strong>for</strong> the<br />
teleprinters, Internet & the office and residential telephones of all the flood related<br />
functionaries.<br />
Vi ) Conduct a familiarization training of the senior cadre and junior cadre government ,<br />
functionaries actively involved in the process of flood mitigation. Senior cadre training<br />
may be limited to one day only and must include such functionaries as the Relief<br />
Commissioner, Director General ( Relief) , Chief Engineer, Hydrology WAPDA, Chief<br />
Engineer FFC , Chief Engineer, Hydrology and drainage PIDA, Director <strong>Flood</strong> PIDA ,<br />
Director PDMA.<br />
Training <strong>for</strong> the junior cadrs may extend to a period of one week <strong>for</strong> the persons from<br />
various provincial and federal departments actually posted on flood duties.<br />
3.2.1 Functions during the <strong>Flood</strong> Season<br />
Chief Met, FFD is personally responsible <strong>for</strong> the issuance of timely and reliable flood<br />
<strong>for</strong>ecast/warning to af<strong>for</strong>d pre-flood imitation measures to reduce damage to the life and<br />
property due to floods. He is required to remain in touch with his office even outside the<br />
working hours to maintain a close watch on the flood generating weather situations. In case<br />
situation <strong>for</strong> Category-II or category-III floods develop he is to give advance verbal<br />
briefings to R.C. Punjab, Chairman FFC, DG Engineers ( Army), DG Met, Chairman<br />
NDMA and Member (water) WAPDA. Such briefings should be over and above the<br />
written qualitative <strong>for</strong>ecasts issued when the approaching monsoon low/ depressions draws<br />
closer. In order to avoid undue public panic, flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts to the public should be given,<br />
only when the possibility of floods has positively developed, in which case suitably tailored<br />
flood <strong>for</strong>ecast must be provided to the press and the electronic media in time. The benefit<br />
of the improved flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting system must reach the public by way of more reliable<br />
and more advance flood in<strong>for</strong>mation to them. It is also important that the necessary trust be<br />
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placed in the <strong>for</strong>ecasts issued by Chief Met FFD and under no circumstances the <strong>for</strong>ecast<br />
issued by him allowed to be amended without his consent. This is because the flood<br />
<strong>for</strong>ecasting is the sole prerogative of the Chief Met FFD and no one else in the present setup<br />
has the necessary technical means or the know-how to make any change.<br />
Under a serious pre-flood situation Chief Meteorologist FFD may invite director <strong>Flood</strong>s of<br />
irrigation Department, Chief Engineer (H & WM) of WPADA and necessary flood related<br />
actions. Additionally, daily press briefings may be commenced in consultation with the<br />
Relief Commissioner Punjab.<br />
In case of category-III flood situation a <strong>for</strong>ecast of PMF in respect of Mangla / Tarbela be<br />
issued in yes/ no terms and Member (water) WAPDA be personally in<strong>for</strong>med of it by Chief<br />
Meteorologist, FFD Lahore.<br />
3.3 Stakeholders<br />
3.3.1 Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authority (PIDA)<br />
PIDA plays a front line role in the process of flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting as well as flood mitigation.<br />
Major flood related functions include.<br />
I )<br />
Ii )<br />
Iii )<br />
Iv )<br />
Flow measurements at the specific sites at rivers , canals and nullahs<br />
Planning , design construction and maintenance of flood protection works.<br />
Maintenance of data communication network to provide the river flow data to FFD.<br />
Supervision of the flood warning center ( on behalf of Relief Commissioner ) to<br />
ensure timely dissemination of the flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts / warning.<br />
Vi )<br />
Occasional updating of the divisional flood fighting plans and execution of such<br />
plans during flood emergency.<br />
Vii )<br />
Implementation of the divisional flood fighting plan and ezxecution of such plans<br />
during flood emergency.<br />
3.3.2 National Disaster Management Authority ( NDMA)<br />
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The National Disaster Management Authority and Provincial Disaster Management<br />
Authorities Whose raisings were recently approved by the Govt. Immediately<br />
mobilized the relief ef<strong>for</strong>t in a coordinated and synchronized manner .<br />
NDMA provides a well coordinated, synergized and timely relief to affected areas<br />
with a view to bringing normalcy of life in the shortest possible time:-<br />
I )<br />
Short Term Implication<br />
(a)<br />
(b)<br />
Rescue / Crisis management of affected population in distress.<br />
Provision of immediate relief in the <strong>for</strong>m of food, water, shelters<br />
and health care.<br />
(c)<br />
(d)<br />
(e)<br />
Restoration of communication infrastructure and essential services.<br />
Distribution of compensation to affected households.<br />
<strong>Early</strong> recovery of affected areas.<br />
(2) Long Term Implication<br />
(a)<br />
Capcity building of PDMAs, Sindh, Baluchistan, Punjab and<br />
NWFP to handle relief , rehabilitation and reconstruction.<br />
(b)<br />
Rehabilitation and Reconstaruction by PDMAs through line<br />
ministries in coordination and under the direction of NDMA.<br />
3.3.3 WAPDA<br />
WAPDA is actively involved in the <strong>Flood</strong> <strong>Forecasting</strong> process by providing the<br />
much needed river and rain data from its telemetric gauge sites within<br />
the upper catchments of Indus , Jhelum &Chenab rivers. During the<br />
previous flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting project ( from 1977 to 1987), WAPDA was<br />
assigned the responsibility to establish and maintain a telemetric<br />
network of river and rain stations to support the flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting<br />
models. A total of about 40 such stations were established . The number<br />
was gradually reduced to about 20 due to maintenance problems,<br />
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especially in respect of the river gauging equipment which developed<br />
frequent problem. It was decided to assign three categories to the<br />
telemetric stations in relation to their relative importance in flood<br />
<strong>for</strong>ecasting. WAPDA maintained only fifteen catergory-1 stations during<br />
the last years. The system has now been replaced with a new set of<br />
equipment using the meteor burst based communication system.<br />
WAPDA‘s telemetric network is directly linked to FFD and is looked<br />
after by an officer of the level of research office whose office is located<br />
within the premises of FFD.<br />
Beside WAPDA‘s involvement is providing the hydrometric flood data,<br />
it is also involved in providing the data from such hydraulic structure as<br />
Mangla and Tarbela dams and the Chashma Barrage<br />
A great scope exists in future in assigning the flood mitigation role to<br />
Mangla and tarbela reservoirs by linking up the operation of the two<br />
reservoirs with flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting system. Resorting to pre-flood releases<br />
on the basis of the flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts can create necessary flood storage.<br />
3.3.4 Provincial relief Organization<br />
Ultimate aim of flood warning is to reduce the potential loss to the life<br />
and property of the community living in the flood liable areas.<br />
Provincial relief organizations are charged with the responsibility<br />
pertaining to disaster preparedness, emergency response, and post<br />
disaster activities pertaining to all disasters including flood.<br />
Consequently, under the present set up the flood Warni8ng Center has<br />
been placed under the Relief commissioner in addition to his normal<br />
duties. Relief department primarily functions through control and<br />
coordination of the personnel and resources of other govt departments<br />
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generally organized asd committee like flood commission and flood<br />
<strong>Warning</strong> Center. Relief function at the district and Tehsil level are<br />
per<strong>for</strong>med through the DCO, who coordinates with the other<br />
departments to execute the flood mitigation function at the district level.<br />
<strong>Flood</strong> preparatory actions required to be taken the Relief Commissioner<br />
include:-<br />
i) Arranging inspection of the flood protection works by the<br />
Irrigation Department and Pakistan army to ensure that all vital<br />
flood protection bunds etc. are in a satisfactory state of<br />
maintenance.<br />
ii)<br />
To establish flood warning center and the flood centers at the<br />
district and Tehsil Levels.<br />
iii)<br />
To ensure that all flood related agencies / department involved in<br />
the process of flood mitigation are fully geared to per<strong>for</strong>m the<br />
functions pertaining to their respective areas in the process of the<br />
flood mitigation.<br />
iv)<br />
To ensure that flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts / warnings are disseminated<br />
without loss of time to all concerned and they are fully aware of<br />
the action to be taken under each situation.<br />
These are some of the major actions required to be taken by the<br />
Relief Commissioner be<strong>for</strong>e the onset of the flood season.<br />
During the flood emergency, however, he is to supervise the<br />
flood relief functions carried out by the district administration<br />
with help of Pakistan Army and other government Departments.<br />
These are some of the major actions required actions required to<br />
be taken Relief Commissioner be<strong>for</strong>e the onset of the flood<br />
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season. During the flood emergency, however, he is to supervise<br />
the flood relief functions carried out by the district administration<br />
with the help of Pakistan Army and other govt departments.<br />
3.3.5 Pakistan Army<br />
Pakistan army’s corps of engineers under the command and<br />
control of Engineer-in-Chief ( E-IN-C) is charged with the<br />
responsibility to provide the necessary help to the civil authority<br />
to carry out the rescue and relief operations during and after the<br />
floods. It is the responsibility of the provincial govt to provide all<br />
the support equipment ( boats, life jackets, vehicles , tents etc ) to<br />
the Army <strong>for</strong> such operation.<br />
Pakistan Army’s flood related function encompasses all the three<br />
phases of flood operation from the pre-flood to post flood phases<br />
including the all important flood phase. Pre-flood phase is the<br />
flood preparatory phase during which the adequacy and the<br />
serviceability of the flood fighting equipment are ensured. A<br />
number of pre-flood meetings are held at the level of E-IN-E to<br />
help coordinate the activities of the other organizations / agencies<br />
in providing the required support to the Army. Since Punjab is<br />
the most flood province, it is the Relief Commissioner Punjab ,<br />
who provides the bulk of the flood fighting equipment to the<br />
army. The CC Engineers 4 Corps of the Army that is stationed at<br />
Lahore acts as liaison officer <strong>for</strong> the purpose. P0re-flood<br />
inspections of the flood protection structures are also carried out<br />
by the respective commander corps of engineers <strong>for</strong> their<br />
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espective areas to ensure that the structures ( bunds , barrages ,<br />
spurs etc ) are in satisfactory stae of maintenance .Discrepancy ,<br />
if any is brought to the notice of the relief commissioner and<br />
PIDA. Sometimes joint inspections with PIDA are carried out to<br />
save time<br />
Pakistan Army’s major flood related starts after the flood occurs. An officer of the 4 Corps engineers is placed on duty<br />
in the flood warning center to keep a close watch on the flood situation. All flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts and warni9ng are<br />
communicated to the CC Engineers 4 Corps in time to be transmitted to the D.G. Engineers and all other CC Corps of<br />
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the Engineers. Lack of understanding of the flood <strong>for</strong>ecast has been a major problem faced by the Army in the past,<br />
since they are no acquainted with the commonly used. Hydro meteorological terms and no arrangement of the preflood<br />
training of the concerned CC Engineers corps has so far been made As the flood arrives , units of the Army<br />
move out to their respective areas of responsibility and carry out relief and rescue operations in coordination with civil<br />
administration . A major post flood meeting is held under the chairmanship of E-IN-E to discuss the per<strong>for</strong>mance of all<br />
the flood related agencies with the view to bring about the necessary improvement in future.<br />
3.3.6 Pakistan Commissioner <strong>for</strong> Indus Waters (PCIW)<br />
Pakistan has a unique flood- <strong>for</strong>ecasting problem in the sense that greater part of the flood producing upper catchments of<br />
the Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab rivers lies across the border in India / held Kashmir. Further more a number of control<br />
structure like dams and barrages etc, exist over the rivers across the border with the result that the free conditions are<br />
destroyed making the operation of the rainfall / runoff model extremely difficult. The situation underlines the need <strong>for</strong> the<br />
river flow data from across the border in respect of the important sites over the rivers in India / held Kashmir.<br />
Consequently, an agreement has been signed between the two countries through their respective Commissioners <strong>for</strong> Indus<br />
water which includes a provision to receive from India such river flow and rainfall data as is considered important <strong>for</strong> flood<br />
<strong>for</strong>ecasting in Pakistan.<br />
A number of river flow stations are specified <strong>for</strong> this purpose. Normally once a day the data is received by the Pakistan<br />
Commissioner <strong>for</strong> Indus waters. The data is then passed on to the Chief Met FFD. Frequency of data reception is increased<br />
to six hourly and even to hourly in relation to the prevailing flood situation. Pakistan commissioner <strong>for</strong> Indus waters is thus<br />
responsible to provide to the Chief Met FFD the much needed data from India <strong>for</strong> use in the flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting models.<br />
Many problems have occurred in the past when the India data in respect of river Ravi was passed on to the press which<br />
resulted in the issuance of false alarm to the public. This is because large-scale attenuation of the flood wave occurs<br />
between Madhopur (India) and Jassar due to the physiographic characteristic of the catchments and the river bed.<br />
Incidences are not uncommon when the flood peak at Jassar is reduced to 1/4 th of its size at Madhopur.It has thus decided<br />
that the India data as received through the Commissioner <strong>for</strong> Indus waters must not be made public to avoid false alarm<br />
arising out of the wrong interpretation of the data. .Leakage of this data to the press must be specially guarded since the<br />
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press may publish threatening front wave as given in the India report <strong>for</strong> Madhopur. Eventually when nothing arrives as<br />
compared to what was reported; press may start to criticize India <strong>for</strong> providing the incorrect flood in<strong>for</strong>mation. This puts<br />
Pakistan Commissioner <strong>for</strong> Indus waters in an embarrassing situation viz, a viz , his Indian counterpart.<br />
It has there<strong>for</strong>e been decided that flood <strong>for</strong>ecast as issued by chief Met FFD only be given to the Media ( both electronic &<br />
press ) and all other concerned agencies.<br />
Pakistan Commissioner <strong>for</strong> Indus Waters is the only <strong>for</strong>um through which any clarification or further in<strong>for</strong>mation can<br />
be obtained from India with regard to flood data or the flood control structures etc.<br />
3.3.7 Emergency Relief Cell (ERC)<br />
Emergency Relief Cell has been established under the cabinet division and is controlled by the Cabinet Secretary. The DG<br />
Relief heads the cell. Main function of the Emergency relief cell includes<br />
i) Planning and assessment of relief requirements of major disasters<br />
ii)<br />
iii)<br />
iv)<br />
Stock pilling of basic necessities needed during emergency such as dry ration, tarpaulins, blankets etc.<br />
Establishing emergency fund upon declaration of any part of the country as calamity affected.<br />
Maintaining contact with UNDP and other international aid giving agencies.<br />
v) Making arrangements of disaster relief assistance from other countries.<br />
ERC maintains two warehouses <strong>for</strong> stocking relief goods and the cell also maintains relief goods dispatch<br />
organization. For the dispatch of the relief goods ERC maintains a fleet of helicopter which are given under the control<br />
of Army aviation base at Dhamial and are flown by the Army pilots <strong>for</strong> the relief missions under the instructions of<br />
ERC.<br />
Located at <strong>Islamabad</strong> ERC maintains contact with Federal <strong>Flood</strong> Commission (FFC) and is one of the recipients of the<br />
daily flood report issued by FFC.<br />
3.3.8 Federal <strong>Flood</strong> Commission (FFC)<br />
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FFC was established in 1977 to provide the necessary infrastructure at the federal level to help the provinces in<br />
meeting the technical and financial resources required to carry out the <strong>Flood</strong> mitigation Measures.<br />
During the recent past FFC has played a unique role in remodeling the flood mitigation policy of the country on<br />
modern lines with the help of the <strong>for</strong>eign loan mostly obtained from Asian Development bank ( ADB)<br />
The policy being implemented by the FFC encompasses both the engineering as well as the non-engineering measures.<br />
Non-engineering measures mainly pertain to establishment of a modern flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting and warning system to<br />
provide timely and reliable flood in<strong>for</strong>mation to the concerned flood mitigation agencies and the public in general .<br />
One big step towards this end is establishment of the QPM Doppler radar at Lahore , Sialkot & Mangla to af<strong>for</strong>d the<br />
acquisition of the much needed rainfall data from across the border over Sutlej , Beas , Ravi, Chenab & Jhelum<br />
catchments through the process of remote sensing. <strong>Flood</strong> inundation maps are prepared to facilities the identification<br />
of the villages likely to be inundated as against those considered safe, <strong>for</strong> a specific level of flood to be determined on<br />
the basis of running the hydrodynamic model.<br />
A number of flood protection worked have been executed and some are still in the process of implementation by the<br />
provinces through financial and technical support provided by FFC.<br />
In the context of flood warning dissemination Chairman FFC ( being also the Chief Engineering Advisor to the<br />
Federal Govt ) renders suitable advice to the President and Prime Minister as and when the situation so demands. He<br />
carries out this function either directly or thorough the Minister of Water & Power.<br />
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Chapter 4<br />
<strong>Flood</strong> Forecast & <strong>Early</strong> <strong>Warning</strong> Dissemination System<br />
4.1 Background In<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
Since the establishment of the flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting and warning system , the dissemination of the flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts /<br />
warning was entrusted to an office designated as the <strong>Flood</strong> warning Center ( FWC) , which was temporarily<br />
established every year within the premises of the <strong>Flood</strong> <strong>Forecasting</strong> Division ( FFD) <strong>for</strong> the duration of the flood<br />
season ( 15 June to 15 Oct ) . The FWC was constituted of the representatives from such departments / agencies which<br />
are directly or indirectly related to the flood problem. This includes WAPDA, Pakistan Railways, Pakistan Army,<br />
Irrigation dept; Highways dept; and In<strong>for</strong>mation department of Punjab. The center functioned under the overall<br />
control of the Relief Commissioner Punjab, who was the Senior Member Board of revenue and per<strong>for</strong>med flood duties<br />
as an additional assignment. Operation control of center was exercised by the Director <strong>Flood</strong> of the Punjab Irrigation<br />
Department while the logistics of the center were looked after by DG, Relief Department, who was in turn assisted by<br />
his two Directors i.e. , Director Operation and Director Technical.<br />
The FWC was supported by the Police Tele Communication center which was simultaneously established within the<br />
premises of PMD’S <strong>Flood</strong> <strong>Forecasting</strong> Office at 46-Jail Road Lahore under the orders of the Relief Commissioner.<br />
The Police Tele communication Center provided the necessary communication links through police wireless sets<br />
between the e FWC and all the Irrigation sites (including the river headwork) and District / tehsil Level flood centers<br />
temporarily established during the flood season under the control of Deputy Commissioners. Reception and<br />
dissemination of the flood data and the flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts / warning respectively was done by FWC through the Police<br />
Tele Communication center. <strong>Flood</strong> data constituted the rain and discharge data of the river as well as that of the natural<br />
streams / nallahs considered vial <strong>for</strong> the flood <strong>for</strong>ecasting purposes. <strong>Flood</strong> data of the WAPDA sites was received<br />
through WAPDA communication center Sunny View Lahore, where it was passed on to WAPDA sub-office at the<br />
<strong>Flood</strong> <strong>for</strong>ecasting Office. <strong>Flood</strong> data of the river sites of river Indus in the province of Sindh was received through HF<br />
radio sets placed at WAPDA sub office ( at 46-Jail Road Lahore ). Discharge data and the flood <strong>for</strong>ecast of Guddu ,<br />
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Sukkur and Kotri barrages were received and disseminated respectively using this HF radio communication link<br />
between FWC Lahore and Tughlaq House Karachi<br />
Under the above mentioned flood warning system, the <strong>for</strong>ecasting and the dissemination function were completely<br />
bifurcated and entrusted to <strong>Flood</strong> <strong>Forecasting</strong> center of PMD and FWC of the province of Punjab respectively.<br />
Consequently, the Director <strong>Flood</strong> <strong>Forecasting</strong> Center of PMD had no say in the dissemination of the flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts<br />
issued by him. His responsibility ended after the <strong>for</strong>ecast issued by him was handed over to the FWC , since the<br />
dissemination was the sole responsibility of the FWC under the control of the Relief Commissioner ( RC ) and through<br />
him the Director <strong>Flood</strong> ( Irrigation department )<br />
4.2 Prevailing <strong>Flood</strong> <strong>Warning</strong> Dissemination System<br />
With the passage of time, operation of the earlier dissemination system inherited some discrepancies, which raised<br />
confusions in the mind of the public and the Govt agencies which are listed below:<br />
a) Police telecommunication system (<strong>for</strong> the reception of <strong>Flood</strong> data and the dissemination of flood<br />
<strong>for</strong>ecasts/ warning) be replaced with some advanced automatic data communication system. However, until such time<br />
a system becomes available the police operator posted on flood duties be given some training to enable detection of<br />
simple data errors and also to understand the urgency and importance of timely data and flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts<br />
communications.<br />
b) Dissemination of the flood / warning at least to the important recipients be done by the <strong>Flood</strong> <strong>Forecasting</strong><br />
division to ensure timely dissemination under the overall supervision of the Chief Meteorologist FFD .<br />
c) some mechanism to ensure proper coordination between the various departments / agencies involved in<br />
the flood mitigation process be established. This could be done by an authority having the full legal<br />
jurisdiction over all the concerned agencies.<br />
The problem and the possible remedies were frequently discussed in flood meetings at Provincial and Federal<br />
government levels. As a result of such ef<strong>for</strong>ts the earlier flood warning dissemination system underwent<br />
gradual changes as reflected in the system currently in vogue. Salient features of current flood warning<br />
dissemination system are as follows:<br />
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i) a pre-flood familiarization training has been started since last few years to acquaint the newly inducted<br />
people of Irrigation and WAPDA with the commonly used hydromet terms.<br />
ii)<br />
<strong>Flood</strong> <strong>for</strong>ecasting and warning Center was redesignated as the National <strong>Flood</strong> <strong>Forecasting</strong> Bureau<br />
(NFFB) having the following constitution.<br />
Director PMD<br />
Director Hydrology WAPDA<br />
Representative of Indus Water Commission<br />
Director <strong>Flood</strong>s (Irrigation)<br />
(Head)<br />
(Member)<br />
(Member)<br />
(Member)<br />
In 2001, PMD has upgraded the post of Director NFFB and now Chief Met. (BS-20) is heading this office with the<br />
new name <strong>Flood</strong> <strong>for</strong>ecasting Division. The chief meteorologist FFD is authorized to call the meeting of<br />
the FFD as and when the serious flood situation occurs and / or lack of coordination comes to his notice<br />
calling <strong>for</strong> immediate remedial action.<br />
Iii )<br />
FFD has taken in hand the dissemination of the flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts/ warning to considerably a large number<br />
of recipients directly or indirectly concerned with the flood mitigation process, over and above the<br />
dissemination being done by the FWC.<br />
iv)<br />
Press briefings have been started in the office of the Chief Meteorologist FFD as a regular feature to<br />
ensure correct and authentic and weather in<strong>for</strong>mation to the public. Such briefings are arranged through<br />
the representative of the Punjab in<strong>for</strong>mation department on duty at the FWC, only when the flood<br />
situation is or likely to become serious enough to call <strong>for</strong> such briefings.<br />
Considerable improvement has been made in the dissemination system since the time that it was initially started. A<br />
much better coordination now exists with WAPDA Regular meeting or verbal advice is given by Chief<br />
Meteorologist FFD to G.M (Planning & Coordination) WAPDA during the flood season as and when<br />
asked <strong>for</strong> .<br />
4.3 Updated <strong>Flood</strong> <strong>Warning</strong> dissemination Procedure<br />
The existing dissemination process has been reviewed and lists of the recipients of flood in<strong>for</strong>mation have been<br />
streamlined. Basically there are two types of flood in<strong>for</strong>mation required to be provided <strong>for</strong> use by the<br />
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appropriate recipient: the flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts and the flood data. Whereas the flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts are disseminated<br />
by FFD as well as by the FWC, the flood data is disseminated by the FWC only.<br />
4.3.2 Dissemination of <strong>Flood</strong> Data<br />
Besides the flood <strong>for</strong>ecasts, the flood data is also disseminated to such Govt functionaries as are required<br />
to closely monitor the flood level at various headworks. The data consists of the gauge and discharge<br />
data measured at every six hours.<br />
Recommendations<br />
The <strong>SOP</strong> has been prepared after many years of practical experience and it has been found that <strong>SOP</strong> can<br />
only be practicable when a general consensus exists between all the stakeholders. Otherwise the spirit of<br />
the <strong>SOP</strong> would not be alive. The understanding of the social scenario of the country is very vital<br />
otherwise operation of the <strong>SOP</strong> in isolation would add burden on the poor and unaware people.<br />
Keeping in view the above, some recommendations have been proposed <strong>for</strong> better operation of the <strong>SOP</strong>:<br />
(i)<br />
Proper Training & Understanding<br />
The general public specially the stakeholders must have adequate knowledge of the weather system and<br />
the <strong>for</strong>ecasting of the system. For this purpose some training education must be imparted to the<br />
responsible section of the people and amongst the stakeholders so that dissemination of the <strong>for</strong>ecast may<br />
be realized in true sense.<br />
(ii)<br />
Media Role<br />
Local print & electronic media should also understand the purpose of the flood <strong>for</strong>ecast and should<br />
refrain from dishing out wrong or confused in<strong>for</strong>mation to the public which may result in spreading panic<br />
& chaos in the civil population.<br />
(iii)<br />
Single voice<br />
The flood <strong>for</strong>ecast issuing authority has a unique role in this <strong>SOP</strong> which should not be compromised,<br />
because the focal person has all the knowledge and data regarding the building or recession of the flood<br />
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wave. Any wrong or mutilated picture of flood may result in increasing the difficulties and aggravating<br />
the situation.<br />
(iv)<br />
Infrastructure development<br />
The general public should be aware of the flood prone areas and may be discouraged to raising any<br />
structure within the area. Govt should mark & advertise flood prone areas through the print and<br />
electronic media <strong>for</strong> the in<strong>for</strong>mation of the public. No utility services like gas, telephone, electricity<br />
should be provided in the flood prone areas particularly within the river banks. Proper record may be<br />
maintained regarding the raising of building in the specified areas.<br />
In the hilly areas where flash flooding usually creates havoc, construction of building should also be<br />
disallowed in the vicinity of the hill torrents paths. Similarly edges of the roads near rivers should also be<br />
banned <strong>for</strong> construction of any big structure like shopping centers, educational institutions, hotels, Govt<br />
office buildings etc.<br />
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FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIR<br />
(CATEGORY-I FLOODS)<br />
2 TO 5 LAC CFS<br />
Annexture -5A<br />
1. <strong>Flood</strong> built up confirmation at EL 1202 feet<br />
2. Balance inflow, outflow upto high flood limit 150,000 cfs<br />
3. Watch till elevation rises to 1203 feet<br />
4. If inflow still rising increase outflow to 250,000 cfs<br />
5. Watch till elevation rises to 1204 feet<br />
6. if inflow still rising increase outflow to 300,000 cfs<br />
7. Watch till elevation rises to 1205 feet<br />
8. If inflow still rising increase outflow to 300,000 cfs<br />
9. Watch till elevation rises to 1206 feet<br />
10. If inflow still rising increase outflow to 300,000 cfs<br />
11. If reservoir level still rising with: Continue same outflow and<br />
a) Evidence of still rising with: then start reducing gradually<br />
as the situation permits.<br />
b) Evidenc4 of further flood buildup Open the main spillway to cater <strong>for</strong> inflow /<br />
outflow<br />
Note:<br />
<strong>Flood</strong> warning station data and FFD <strong>for</strong>ecast shall be kept in view all the time. As soon as inflow hydrograph recession<br />
is confirmed the outflows should be reduced gradually <strong>for</strong> downstream relief, subject to the safety of the project.<br />
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FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIR<br />
(CATEGORY-II FLOODS)<br />
5 TO 7 LAC CFS<br />
1. Watch till elevation rises to 1202 feet<br />
2. If inflow still rising increase outflow to 150,000 cfs<br />
3. Watch till elevation rises to 1203 feet<br />
4. If inflow still rising increase outflow to 375,000 cfs<br />
5. Watch till elevation rises to 1204 feet<br />
6. if inflow still rising increase outflow to 425,,000 cfs<br />
7. Watch till elevation rises to 1205 feet<br />
8. If inflow still rising increase outflow to 450,000 cfs<br />
9. Watch till elevation rises to 1206 feet<br />
10. If inflow still rising increase outflow to 500,000 cfs<br />
Annexture-5B<br />
11. If reservoir level still rising with: Continue same outflow and<br />
a) Evidence of still rising with: then start reducing gradually<br />
as the situation permits.<br />
b) Evidenc4 of further flood buildup Open the main spillway to cater<br />
<strong>for</strong> inflow / outflow<br />
Note:<br />
<strong>Flood</strong> warning station data and FFD <strong>for</strong>ecast shall be kept in view all the time. As soon as inflow hydrograph recession<br />
is confirmed the outflows should be reduced gradually <strong>for</strong> downstream relief, subject to the safety of the project.<br />
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Annexture-5C<br />
FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIR<br />
(CATEGORY-III FLOODS)<br />
ABOVE 7 LAC CFS<br />
1. Watch till elevation rises to 1198 feet<br />
2. If inflow still rising increase outflow to 400,000 cfs<br />
3. Watch till elevation rises to 1200 feet<br />
4. If inflow still rising increase outflow to 425,000 cfs<br />
5. Watch till elevation rises to 1202 feet<br />
6. If inflow still rising increase outflow to 450,000 cfs<br />
7. Watch till elevation rises to 1204 feet<br />
8. If inflow still rising increase outflow to 475,,000 cfs<br />
9. Watch till elevation rises to 1205 feet<br />
10. If inflow still rising increase outflow to 500,000 cfs<br />
11. If reservoir level still rising with: Continue same outflow and then start reducing<br />
gradually as the situation permits.<br />
a) Evidence of still rising with:<br />
b) Evidenc4 of further flood buildup Open the main spillway to<br />
cater <strong>for</strong> inflow / outflow<br />
Note:<br />
<strong>Flood</strong> warning station data and FFD <strong>for</strong>ecast shall be kept in view all the time. As soon as inflow hydrograph recession<br />
is confirmed the outflows should be reduced gradually <strong>for</strong> downstream relief, subject to the safety of the project.<br />
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