the numerical sea ice forecast in finland in the winter 1993-94 ...

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MER1 - Report Series of the Finnish Institute of Marine Research Cover: The maximum ice cover in the winter 1993-94.0 FIMR Publisher: Finnish Institute of Marine Research P.O. Box 33 FIN-00931 Helsinki, Finland Tel: + 358 0 613941 Fax: + 358 0 61394 494 e-mail: surname@fimr.fi Kannen kuva: Jäätalven 1993-94 laajin jäätilanne. 0 MTL Julkaisija: Merentutkimuslaitos PL 33 00931 Helsinki Puh. 90-613941 Telekopio: 90-61394 494 e-mail: sukunimi@fimr.fi Copies of this Report Series may be obtained from the library of the Finnish Institute of Marine Research Tämän raporttisarjan numeroita toi tilata Merentutkimuslaitoksen kirjastosta. ISSN 1238-5328 Recyclable product with low emirrionr during production Hakapaino Oy, Helsinki 1995
THE NUMERICAL SEA ICE FORECAST IN FINLAND IN THE WINTER 1993-94 Shan Bai*, Hannu Grönvall and Ari Seinä * Present address: NRCMEF, 100081, Beijing, P.R. China Abstract A new numerical ice forecast model for the Baltic Sea has been tested in the winter 1993-94. No major errors or malfunctions were found and the ice conditions of +36 h were demonstrated with an average error in the ice edge of -7 km and in ice thickness of -9 cm. Keywords: Baltic Sea, sea ice, numerical sea ice forecast, model Fig. 1. The maximum ice cover of the season, 206 000 km2, in 3 March 1994. 1. INTRODUCTION Located in the northwestem part of the Baltic Sea, normally all Mainland Finnish harbours freeze during winter. The ice season lasts in the northem Baltic Sea for about two weeks and in the northem Bothnian Bay up to seven months. In mid-winter vessels must navigate through the ice, in a normal winter at least 40 nautical miles in order to reach the southwestem harbours of Finland, and to reach the northem Bothnian Bay 160 nautical miles; during an extremely severe winter up to 650 nautical miles (Seinä 1994). As some 80-90 % of export and import relies on marine transportation winter transportation consists of ice strength merchant vessels assisted by a large icebreaker fleet. The Baltic Sea ice has a dynamit nature and the ice motion is mainly driven by winds and currents. Frequent storms forte the ice drifting up to 30 km a day causing deformation and opening and closing of leads.
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Page 7 and 8: 8 v”biiRICAL SEA ICE REDICTION :Q
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Page 14 and 15: 14 considerably affect navigation -
Page 16 and 17: 16 The maximum fast ice thicknesses
Page 18 and 19: 18 finally undelined areas are area
Page 20 and 21: 20 To make the pixelwise decision a
Page 22 and 23: 22 Fig. 9..a)EEi:S-1 SAR image 05.0
Page 24 and 25: 24 Table 1. ERS-1 images and weathe
Page 26 and 27: 26 VO Date Image Area Station 6 3 O
Page 28 and 29: l0 Date Image Area 136 26,Mar ers-9
Page 30 and 31: 30 HJLU, VAASA, RAUMA, MAARIANHAMIN
Page 32 and 33: 32 Table 3. Ice and snow thickness
Page 34 and 35: 34 Date: 10.0 1.1994 09:48 UTC Imag
Page 36 and 37: 36 Date: 09.02.1994 09:48 UTC Image
Page 38 and 39: 38 Obscurity: No. Date: 12.02.1994
Page 40 and 41: 40 Ice types in the image: Leve1 ic
Page 42 and 43: 42 Area: Off Kaskinen Ice thickness
Page 46 and 47: 46 Image: ers940304-a7 Area: Off Pi
Page 48 and 49: 48 Ice types in the image: Fast ice
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52 Verification: Fast ice is visibl
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54 Ice types in the image: Fast ice
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56 Verification: Very good even in
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58 Obscurity: No. Date: 23.03.1994
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60 Area: Off Kaskinen Ice thickness
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