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CIP • SOCIAL SCIENCES WORKING PAPER 2010-1
4.8.2 Projections
The ten ASARECA member countries produce potatoes accounting for 71% of the total
production in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Evidence indicates that in 2004, the total production of
potatoes in the ASARECA region was estimated to be over 14 Million Tons (Berga, 2004).
According to sub-sector analysis study for potato and sweetpotatoe, 80% of the total potato
produced is ware, 10% goes for seed and 10% is waste (ASARECA, 2005). Out of the total for ware,
85% of it is consumed in its boiled and other forms while 15% of the ware goes for processing.
Out of the potatoes allocated for processing, 90% of it goes for chips processing and the
remaining goes for crisps and others. After processing, the recovery percentage of chips is 60%
while the remaining is peels during processing. The diagram indicating the potential production
of chips in the ASARECA region is indicated in Figure 6.
According to the potato sub-sector analysis (PRAPACE and ECAPAPA, 2004) in the ASARECA
region 10.8% of the total potato produced is allocated for chips processing. After processing, net
chips production will be only 6.5% of the total potato produced. With this conservative estimate,
ASARECA region had the potential of producing 907,200 tons of chips per annum by 2004
(Figure 6).
For countries that are covered in this study, the potential production of chips was also estimated,
based on an average of 12 years of potato production. Its forecast was also made for 2015,
assuming a 10% growth of potato production per annum. Accordingly, the countries considered
in this study have the potential of producing 234,201 tons of chips per annum by 2008 (Table 23).
By 2015, the same countries have a potential of processing 296,371 tons of chips per annum.
These facts suggest that appropriate and favorable intervention options need to be set in place
to exhaust the potential of chips trade in the ECA region.
Table 23. Estimates of potential chips production in ECA countries by 2008 and 2015.
Country Potential chips production by 2008
(tons/annum)
Potential chips production by 2015
(tons/annum)
Burundi 3102 3927
Ethiopia 35719 45210
Kenya 60345 76319
Rwanda 50630 64083
Tanzania 43253 54746
Uganda 41152 52086
All countries 234201 296371
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