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Peter Watts 103 Blindsight
"No, listen. You're thinking about the aliens like they were some
kind of mammal. Something that cares, something that looks after
its investments."
"How do you know they aren't"
"Because you can't protect your kids when they're lightyears
away. They're on their own, and it's a big cold dangerous universe
so most of them aren't going to make it, eh The most you can do
is crank out millions of kids, take cold comfort in knowing that a
few always luck out through random chance. It's not a mammal
mind-set, Meesh. You want an earthbound simile, think of
dandelion seeds. Or, or herring."
A soft sigh. "So they're interstellar herring. That hardly means
they can't crush us."
"But they don't know about us, not in advance. Dandelion seed
doesn't know what it's up against before it sprouts. Maybe nothing.
Maybe some spastic weed that goes over like straw in the wind. Or
maybe something that kicks its ass halfway to the Magellanic
Clouds. It doesn't know, and there's no such thing as a one-sizefits-all
survival strategy. Something that aces against one player
blows goats against a different one. So the best you can do is mix
up your strategies based on the odds. It's a weighted dice roll and it
gives you the best mean payoff over the whole game, but you're
bound to crap out and choose the wrong strategy at least some of
the time. Price of doing business. And that means—that means—
that weak players not only can win against stronger ones, but
they're statistically bound to in some cases."
Michelle snorted. "That's your game theory Rock Paper
Scissors with statistics"
Maybe Szpindel didn't know the reference. He didn't speak, long
enough to call up a subtitle; then he brayed like a horse. "Rock
Paper Scissors! Yes!"
Michelle digested that for a moment. "You're sweet for trying,
but that only works if the other side is just blindly playing the odds,
and they don't have to do that if they know who they're going up
against in advance. And my dear, they have so very much
information about us..."
They'd threatened Susan. By name.