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ABG Shipyard (ABGSHI) - ICICI Direct

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Result Update<br />

Rating matrix<br />

Rating : Hold<br />

Target : | 349<br />

Target Period : 12 months<br />

Potential Upside : -5%<br />

WHAT’S CHANGED…<br />

February 18, 2013<br />

<strong>ABG</strong> <strong>Shipyard</strong> (<strong>ABG</strong>SHI)<br />

| 369<br />

Key Financials<br />

(| cr) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E<br />

Net Sales 2472.5 2251.6 2398.1 2493.1<br />

EBITDA 698.4 634.1 667.5 704.3<br />

Net Profit 185.8 113.2 130.5 135.1<br />

EPS (|) 36.5 22.2 25.6 26.5<br />

Valuation summary<br />

FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E<br />

PE (x) 10.1 16.6 14.4 13.9<br />

Target PE (x) 9.6 15.7 13.6 13.2<br />

EV to EBITDA (x) 4.1 4.4 4.0 3.6<br />

Price to book (x) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1<br />

RoNW (%) 12.7 11.1 11.6 11.1<br />

RoCE (%) 20.9 19.4 20.6 21.8<br />

Stock data<br />

Market Cap. (| cr) 1878<br />

Debt( FY12) (| cr) 3402<br />

Cash (FY12) (| cr) 365<br />

EV (| cr) 4915<br />

52 week H/L (| cr) 463/ 322<br />

Equity capital (| cr) 50.9<br />

Face value (|) 10<br />

DII Holding (%) 2.5<br />

FII Holding (%) 11.5<br />

Price movement<br />

6,500<br />

6,000<br />

5,500<br />

5,000<br />

4,500<br />

4,000<br />

Mar-12<br />

Analyst’s name<br />

May-12<br />

Aug-12<br />

<strong>ABG</strong> <strong>Shipyard</strong> (R.H.S)<br />

Bharat Chhoda<br />

bharat.chhoda@icicisecurities.com<br />

Soumojeet Kr Banerjee<br />

soumojeet.banerjee@icicisecurities.com<br />

Nov-12<br />

Nifty (L.H.S)<br />

Feb-13<br />

450<br />

350<br />

250<br />

150<br />

PRICE TARGET…………………………………………….Changed from | 372 to | 349<br />

EPS (FY13E)……………………………………………...Changed from | 29.7 to | 22.2<br />

EPS (FY14E)……………………………………………...Changed from | 34.3 to | 25.6<br />

EPS (FY15E)……………………………………………………….Introduced at | 26.54<br />

RATING…………………………………………………………………….Unchanged<br />

Working capital constraint mars execution…<br />

<strong>ABG</strong> <strong>Shipyard</strong> posted another set of disappointing numbers in Q3FY13<br />

with revenues declining 15.4% QoQ and 22.0% YoY. Revenue for the<br />

quarter stood at | 484.6 crore vis-à-vis | 572.5 crore in Q2FY13. EBITDA<br />

also declined 10.8% in Q3FY13 to | 144.8 crore against | 162.4 crore in<br />

Q2FY13. However, the EBITDA margin improved 153 bps to 29.9% on<br />

account of better inventory management and decline in other expenses<br />

component. PAT for Q3FY13 plummeted significantly by 43.2% to | 18.6<br />

crore in contrast to | 32.8 crore in Q2FY13. PAT continued its downward<br />

spiral on account of augmentation of interest cost, which constitutes 73%<br />

of EBITDA in Q3FY13. Going ahead, we expect working capital constraints<br />

to mar execution capability leading to stumpy revenue generation and<br />

pressure on bottomline.<br />

• Interest cost double whammy; improving order book gives respite<br />

The debt/equity r atio is expected to worsen to 2.7x in FY13E from 2.1x in<br />

FY12. Total outstanding long term debt in FY13E is expected in the range<br />

of | 1300-1500 crore whereas short-term debt is expected around | 2800<br />

crore. Working capital management continues to be a concern as there is<br />

a delay in stage payment from customers, leading to further rise in<br />

interest cost. Hence, execution is getting hampered. Interest cost as a<br />

percentage of EBITDA rose to 73% in Q3FY13 from 64% in Q2FY13. On<br />

the order book front, unexecuted order book was at ~| 10000 crore. The<br />

unexecuted order book is ~4.0x FY15E revenues and provides good<br />

revenue visibility for four years. <strong>ABG</strong> received a repeat order from Indian<br />

Navy to build a cadet training ship in Q3FY13. The order value was | 485<br />

crore taking the gross order book for the defence sector to | 2100 crore.<br />

Over the past year and a half, <strong>ABG</strong> has been able to secure orders from<br />

elite clients like SCI and Indian Navy has improved the quality of order<br />

book and provided comfort about future revenue visibility.<br />

• Valuation stretched on dwindling revenue, increased interest costs<br />

<strong>ABG</strong> <strong>Shipyard</strong>’s working capital constraints together with muted<br />

execution limit the scope to improve multiple. Rolling over the valuation<br />

multiple forward to FY15E, we assign P/BV multiple of 1.0x FY15E and<br />

arrive at a price target of | 349. We maintain our HOLD rating.<br />

Exhibit 1: Financial Performance<br />

(| cr) Q3FY13 Q3FY13E Q3FY12 Q2FY13 YoY Gr. (%) QoQ<br />

Net Sales 484.6 605.6 621.3 572.5 -22.0 -15.4<br />

EBITDA 144.9 167.2 194.5 162.4 -25.5 -10.8<br />

EBITDA Margin (%) 29.9 27.6 31.3 28.4 (142)bps 153 bps<br />

Depreciation 26.9 26.0 25.6 25.4 5.0 6.0<br />

Interest 106.1 100.0 108.0 103.2 -1.8 2.8<br />

Reported PAT 18.6 33.8 46.5 32.8 -59.9 -43.2<br />

EPS (|) 3.7 6.6 9.1 6.4 -59.9 -43.2<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

<strong>ICICI</strong> Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research


Exhibit 2: Topline performance trend<br />

Decline in revenue continued for Q3FY13 on account of poor<br />

execution due to working capital constraints. Further, we<br />

expect revenue growth to remain depressed in the range of<br />

3-6% in FY14E and FY15E<br />

3000<br />

2500<br />

2000<br />

2251.6<br />

2398.1<br />

2493.1<br />

| cr<br />

1500<br />

1000<br />

500<br />

0<br />

621.3 572.5 484.6<br />

Q3FY12 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 FY13E FY14E FY15E<br />

Revenue<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

Exhibit 3: EBITDA performance trend<br />

EBITDA margin for Q3FY13 stood at 29.9% taking the nine<br />

month average margin to 28.1%. EBITDA margin is<br />

expected to stabilise at 28% in FY14E as well as FY15E<br />

| cr<br />

880<br />

800<br />

720<br />

640<br />

560<br />

480<br />

400<br />

320<br />

240<br />

160<br />

80<br />

0<br />

31.3<br />

28.4<br />

704.3<br />

29.9 28.2 667.5 27.8<br />

634.1<br />

28.3<br />

194.5<br />

162.4 144.9<br />

Q3FY12 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 FY13E FY14E FY15E<br />

35<br />

30<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

%<br />

EBITDA<br />

OPM<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

Exhibit 4: PAT performance trend<br />

PAT for Q3FY13 declined massively by 43.2% to<br />

18.6 crore. We expect PAT to remain under<br />

pressure due to continuous bloating of interest<br />

cost. NPM is expected to stabilise in the range of<br />

5-5.5% in FY14E & FY15E as interest cost<br />

hangover remains unabated<br />

| cr<br />

160<br />

140<br />

120<br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

0<br />

130.5 135.1<br />

113.2<br />

46.5<br />

7.5 32.8<br />

5.4<br />

5.7<br />

5.0<br />

18.6 3.8<br />

5.4<br />

Q3FY12 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 FY13E FY14E FY15E<br />

25.0<br />

20.0<br />

15.0<br />

10.0<br />

5.0<br />

0.0<br />

%<br />

PAT<br />

NPM<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

<strong>ICICI</strong> Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2


Exhibit 5: Interest cost as percentage of EBITDA<br />

Interest cost continues to haunt <strong>ABG</strong> with interest as a<br />

percentage of EBITDA forming 73% in Q3FY13. We<br />

expect the trend to continue as working capital<br />

management remains a challenging task<br />

250.0<br />

200.0<br />

150.0<br />

100.0<br />

50.0<br />

0.0<br />

73%<br />

194.5<br />

169.68 64%<br />

166.26 162.36<br />

55%<br />

52%<br />

144.85<br />

108.0<br />

43%<br />

103.2<br />

106.1<br />

86.3<br />

73.5<br />

Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13<br />

80%<br />

70%<br />

60%<br />

50%<br />

40%<br />

30%<br />

20%<br />

10%<br />

0%<br />

EBITDA Interest Interest as a % of EBITDA<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

Exhibit 6: Revenue expected to improve in FY14E & FY15E<br />

Order book visibility over four years provides cushion to<br />

revenue. Though execution of the order book is losing<br />

steam amid strained cash flow conditions, we expect<br />

revenue to show modest growth of 3-6% in FY14E-15E<br />

| cr<br />

2600<br />

2500<br />

2400<br />

2300<br />

2200<br />

2100<br />

2000<br />

1900<br />

2472.5<br />

2493.1<br />

2398.1<br />

2251.6<br />

2136.9<br />

FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E<br />

Revenue<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

Exhibit 7: Operating margin to stabilise, going ahead<br />

The EBITDA margin further improved 153 bps in Q3FY13<br />

to 29.9% on account of inventory management and<br />

lower other expenses. We expect the EBITDA margin to<br />

stabilise around 28% in FY14E-15E<br />

| cr<br />

800<br />

700<br />

600<br />

500<br />

400<br />

300<br />

200<br />

100<br />

0<br />

698.4<br />

704.3<br />

634.1<br />

667.5<br />

28.2<br />

27.8<br />

28.3<br />

518.1<br />

28.2<br />

24.2<br />

FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E<br />

35.0<br />

30.0<br />

25.0<br />

20.0<br />

15.0<br />

10.0<br />

5.0<br />

0.0<br />

%<br />

EBITDA EBITDA %<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

<strong>ICICI</strong> Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 3


Exhibit 8: PAT margin expected to decline in FY13E & consolidate at same level in FY14E-15E<br />

250<br />

21.0<br />

| cr<br />

200<br />

150<br />

100<br />

194.0<br />

9.1<br />

185.8<br />

113.2<br />

130.5 135.1<br />

18.0<br />

15.0<br />

12.0<br />

9.0<br />

%<br />

50<br />

7.5<br />

5.0<br />

5.4<br />

5.4<br />

6.0<br />

3.0<br />

0<br />

FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E<br />

PAT PAT %<br />

0.0<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

Exhibit 9: Debt equity ratio expected to remain stretched<br />

| cr<br />

5000<br />

4500<br />

4000<br />

3500<br />

3000<br />

2500<br />

2000<br />

1500<br />

1000<br />

500<br />

0<br />

4450.8 4739.8<br />

2.6<br />

4188.5<br />

2.7<br />

2.7<br />

3154.5<br />

2.1<br />

1.8<br />

2268.6<br />

FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E<br />

Debt Debt-Equity<br />

3.0<br />

2.5<br />

2.0<br />

1.5<br />

1.0<br />

0.5<br />

0.0<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

Exhibit 10: Subsidy trend<br />

50.0<br />

40.0<br />

30.0<br />

20.0<br />

10.0<br />

0.0<br />

46.0<br />

40.1<br />

5.2<br />

3.6<br />

29.9<br />

3.3<br />

2.0 19.0<br />

15.8<br />

1.6<br />

1.7<br />

1.4<br />

0.3<br />

10.0<br />

0.0<br />

8.9<br />

2.2<br />

0.3<br />

FY12 FY13E Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4 FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13<br />

6.0<br />

5.0<br />

4.0<br />

3.0<br />

2.0<br />

1.0<br />

0.0<br />

-1.0<br />

Subsidy<br />

subsidy as % of revenues<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

<strong>ICICI</strong> Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 4


Exhibit 15: Shipbuilding Index<br />

1000<br />

800<br />

Index<br />

600<br />

400<br />

Globally, the shipbuilding industry is reeling under a dwindling order<br />

book and cancellation of prevailing orders. Further, the industry is under<br />

significant liquidity crunch as major financial institutions reduce their<br />

exposure to the sector. <strong>ABG</strong> <strong>Shipyard</strong> with its unexecuted order book of<br />

~| 10000 crore provides revenue visibility for four years. Also <strong>ABG</strong><br />

bagged a repeat order to building cadet training ship from Indian Navy in<br />

Q3FY13 reinforcing its ability and patronage from elite clients like Navy<br />

and SCI. These factors provide comfort to the company in terms of<br />

sustainability of future revenue.<br />

200<br />

0<br />

Jan-10<br />

Jul-10<br />

Jan-11<br />

Jul-11<br />

Jan-12<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

Jul-12<br />

Jan-13<br />

Global shipbuilding industry woes continue, with waning<br />

order book and drying up of financing options. The index<br />

remained flattish in Q3FY13<br />

<strong>ABG</strong> <strong>Shipyard</strong>’s concern pertaining to working capital management<br />

remains unabated coupled with a slowdown in execution due to strained<br />

cash flow. We have rolled over to FY15E valuation and valued the stock at<br />

1.0x FY15E P/BV to arrive at a target price of | 349. We maintain our<br />

HOLD rating on the stock.<br />

Exhibit 11: Valuation parameter<br />

Valuation based Global average Target multiple Target price (|)<br />

Price to book v 1.68 1.0 349<br />

Target price (|) 349<br />

Current market price (|) 369<br />

Upside (%) (5)<br />

Source: <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

Exhibit 12: Valuation<br />

Sales Sales EPS EPS PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE<br />

(| cr) Growth (%) (|) Growth (%) (x) (x) (%) (%)<br />

FY13E 2251.6 -8.9 22.2 -39.1 16.6 4.4 11.1 19.4<br />

FY14E 2398.1 6.5 25.6 15.2 14.4 4.0 11.6 20.6<br />

FY15E 2493.1 4.0 26.5 3.6 13.9 3.6 11.1 21.8<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

Exhibit 13: Revised estimates<br />

Old<br />

New<br />

(| cr) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E<br />

Sales 2854.3 0.0 2398.1 2493.1<br />

EBITDA 835.9 0.0 667.5 704.3<br />

Net Profit 174.8 0.0 130.5 135.1<br />

EPS 34.3 0.0 25.6 26.5<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

Exhibit 14: Assumptions<br />

FY14E<br />

FY15E<br />

Order book execution rate % 21.50 23.50<br />

Susidy accounted 2.67% 2.68%<br />

Dollar Rupee Exchange rate 54 54<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

<strong>ICICI</strong> Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 5


Financial summary<br />

Profit and loss statement<br />

(| Crore)<br />

(Year-end March) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E<br />

Total operating Income 2,472.5 2,251.6 2,398.1 2,493.1<br />

Growth (%) 15.7 -8.9 6.5 4.0<br />

Raw Material Expenses 1,264.6 1,097.3 1,171.7 1,212.9<br />

Employee Expenses 99.1 81.1 86.3 87.3<br />

Mfg & Other expenses 432.7 382.8 407.7 423.8<br />

Incr/Decr in WIP -22.4 0.6 0.6 0.5<br />

Other expenses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Total Operating Expenditure 1,774.1 1,617.5 1,730.6 1,788.8<br />

EBITDA 698.4 634.1 667.5 704.3<br />

Growth (%) 28.2 28.2 27.8 28.3<br />

Depreciation 109.7 101.1 103.7 117.0<br />

Interest 343.1 404.4 414.7 431.9<br />

Other Income 43.7 50.0 50.0 50.0<br />

PBT 289.3 178.5 199.1 205.4<br />

Others -5.0 -3.5 1.2 1.6<br />

Total Tax 98.6 61.8 69.8 71.9<br />

PAT 185.8 113.2 130.5 135.1<br />

Growth (%) -4.2 -39.1 15.2 3.6<br />

EPS (|) 36.5 22.2 25.6 26.5<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

Cash flow statement<br />

(| Crore)<br />

(Year-end March) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E<br />

Profit after Tax 185.8 113.2 113.2 130.5<br />

Add: Depreciation 109.7 101.1 101.1 103.7<br />

(Inc)/dec in Current Ass -1,270.4 -199.3 -199.3 -333.5<br />

Inc/(dec) in CL and Prov 224.0 -139.7 -139.7 281.6<br />

Others 379.4 3.5 3.5 -1.2<br />

CF from operating activi -371.5 -121.1 -121.1 181.2<br />

(Inc)/dec in Investments 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

(Inc)/dec in Fixed Asset -556.4 -101.1 -101.1 -103.7<br />

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

CF from investing activi -555.0 -101.1 -101.1 -103.7<br />

Issue/(Buy back) of Equ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Inc/(dec) in loan funds 871.8 169.3 169.3 -122.8<br />

Dividend paid & dividend -23.6 0.0 0.0 23.8<br />

Inc/(dec) in Sec. premiu 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

CF from financing activi 848.2 169.3 169.3 -99.0<br />

Net Cash flow -280.1 -53.0 -53.0 -21.5<br />

Opening Cash 644.7 364.8 364.8 374.5<br />

Closing Cash 364.8 374.5 344.5 424.7<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

Balance sheet<br />

(| Crore)<br />

(Year-end March) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E<br />

Liabilities<br />

Equity Capital 50.9 50.9 50.9 50.9<br />

Reserve and Surplus 1,452.7 1,510.3 1,616.9 1,728.2<br />

Total Shareholders funds 1,503.6 1,561.2 1,667.8 1,779.1<br />

Long term Borrowings 1,365.3 1,534.6 1,411.7 1,287.2<br />

Deferred Tax Liability 466.3 466.3 466.3 466.3<br />

Minority Interest 9.3 12.8 11.7 10.0<br />

Total Liabilities 3,350.4 3,574.9 3,557.5 3,542.6<br />

Assets<br />

Gross Block 1,525.3 1,625.3 1,700.3 1,775.3<br />

Less: Acc Depreciation 445.4 546.5 650.3 767.3<br />

Net Block 1,079.9 1,078.8 1,050.0 1,008.0<br />

Capital WIP 1,424.0 1,324.0 1,249.0 1,174.0<br />

Intangible assets 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0<br />

Total Fixed Assets 2,539.81 2,438.69 2,334.95 2,217.91<br />

Non Current Investments 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8<br />

Long term loans and advances 725.1 732.3 796.9 864.7<br />

Current Investments 222.1 222.1 222.1 222.1<br />

Inventory 3,357.5 3,547.0 3,679.3 3,790.9<br />

Debtors 72.1 92.5 98.6 102.5<br />

Loans and Advances 1,296.7 1,233.8 1,314.0 1,366.1<br />

Other Current Assets 522.4 574.6 689.5 827.4<br />

Cash 364.8 374.5 344.5 424.7<br />

Total Current Assets 5,835.53 6,044.59 6,348.03 6,733.71<br />

Short term borrowings 2,036.70 2,851.38 3,136.52 3,450.17<br />

Creditors 1,071.7 925.3 919.8 956.3<br />

other curr liab & Provisions 2,678.9 1,870.8 1,872.8 1,874.1<br />

Total Current Liabilities 5,787.22 5,647.52 5,929.17 6,280.56<br />

Net Current Assets 48.31 397.07 418.86 453.14<br />

Others non current assets 30.4 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />

Application of Funds 3,350.4 3,574.9 3,557.5 3,542.6<br />

Key ratios<br />

(Year-end March) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E<br />

Per share data (|)<br />

EPS 36.5 22.2 22.2 25.6<br />

Cash EPS 59.0 53.8 53.8 58.4<br />

BV 295.3 306.6 306.6 327.5<br />

DPS 0.0 4.0 4.0 4.0<br />

Cash Per Share 71.6 73.6 73.6 67.7<br />

Operating Ratios (%)<br />

PBT / Total Operating in 11.7 7.9 7.9 8.3<br />

Inventory days 495.7 575.0 575.0 560.0<br />

Debtor days 10.6 15.0 15.0 15.0<br />

Creditor days 158.2 150.0 150.0 140.0<br />

Return Ratios (%)<br />

RoE 12.7 11.1 11.1 11.6<br />

RoCE 20.9 19.4 19.4 20.6<br />

RoIC 7.4 4.2 4.2 4.8<br />

Valuation Ratios (x)<br />

P/E 10.1 16.6 16.6 14.4<br />

EV / EBITDA 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.0<br />

EV / Net Sales 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2<br />

Market Cap / Sales 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8<br />

Price to Book Value 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1<br />

Solvency Ratios<br />

Debt/EBITDA 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.1<br />

Debt / Equity 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.7<br />

Current Ratio 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0<br />

Quick Ratio 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.9<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

<strong>ICICI</strong> Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 6


Company Description<br />

<strong>ABG</strong> <strong>Shipyard</strong> Limited is a private sector ship building company with<br />

facilities to build and repair a variety of marine ships. The company<br />

manufactures bulk carriers, deck barges, interceptor boats and offshore<br />

vessels. The company serves commercial and government customers.<br />

Exhibit 15: Recommendation History<br />

500<br />

450<br />

400<br />

350<br />

300<br />

250<br />

200<br />

150<br />

100<br />

50<br />

0<br />

Mar-12<br />

Apr-12<br />

May-12<br />

Jul-12<br />

Aug-12<br />

Oct-12<br />

Nov-12<br />

Jan-13<br />

Feb-13<br />

Price<br />

Target Price<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

Exhibit 16: Recent Releases<br />

Date Event CMP Target Price Rating<br />

6-Jan-12 Q3FY12 Result preview 392 373 HOLD<br />

21-Feb-12 Q3FY12 Result Update 434 427 HOLD<br />

7-Jun-12 Q4FY12 Result update 377 432 BUY<br />

21-Aug-12 Q1FY13 Result Update 360 375 HOLD<br />

12-Nov-12 Q2FY13 Result Update 393 372 HOLD<br />

8-Jan-13 Q3FY13 Result Preview 410 372<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

HOLD<br />

<strong>ICICI</strong> Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 7


<strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com coverage universe (Shipping)<br />

EPS (|) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)<br />

RoCE (%) RoE (%)<br />

CMP (|) TP (|) Rating Mcap (| Cr) FY12E FY13E FY14E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY12E FY13E FY14E<br />

Aban Offshore 316 386 BUY 1,392.0 40.2 60.4 65.5 8.9 5.9 5.4 6.0 5.7 5.3 10.4 10.5 11.0 5.5 8.1 8.5<br />

<strong>ABG</strong> <strong>Shipyard</strong> 369 349 HOLD 2,005.5 22.2 25.6 26.5 16.6 14.4 13.9 4.4 4.0 3.6 19.4 20.6 21.8 11.1 11.6 11.1<br />

G.E Shipping 256 280 HOLD 3,739.2 35.1 38.6 44.6 7.1 6.4 5.6 4.8 3.5 2.3 4.6 5.5 5.9 8.0 8.2 8.8<br />

Global Offshore 62 85 BUY 142.8 21.8 19.8 21.1 2.8 3.1 2.9 4.6 5.8 5.6 9.0 8.7 8.3 17.1 13.5 12.6<br />

Mercator Ltd 20 20 HOLD 441.0 0.8 1.9 3.6 23.5 10.1 5.4 5.0 4.3 3.8 3.5 4.7 5.6 0.8 1.9 3.5<br />

Pipavav Defence 85 89 HOLD 5,944.3 0.3 0.6 1.5 260.8 150.3 54.3 19.1 15.8 13.6 8.5 9.0 10.0 1.1 1.8 4.7<br />

SCI 48 48 HOLD 2,496.7 -9.2 -0.6 -6.3 - - - 282.4 26.2 30.2 -4.7 -3.4 -3.5 -6.4 -0.4 -4.5<br />

Source: Company, <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research<br />

Global Valuation (Shipping)<br />

P/BV (x) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) ROE (%)<br />

Company<br />

Country CY11 CY12E CY13E CY11 CY12E CY13E CY11 CY12E CY13E CY11 CY12E CY13E<br />

Shipbuilding<br />

Daewoo Shipbuilding* South Korea 1.1 1.1 1.0 14.5 11.8 9.1 11.5 10.6 8.9 8.0 9.3 11.0<br />

Hyundai Heavy Industries* South Korea 0.9 0.8 0.8 9.5 8.3 7.4 8.1 7.3 6.6 9.1 10.0 11.0<br />

Keppel Corp. Ltd* Singapore 2.3 2.1 2.0 10.4 13.0 12.7 10.2 12.2 11.7 23.4 16.8 16.2<br />

Samsung Heavy Industries* South Korea 1.6 1.4 1.2 10.0 9.9 9.0 6.4 6.4 6.0 20.6 16.3 15.5<br />

Sembcorp Marine* Singapore 3.6 3.9 3.5 12.8 16.1 14.1 10.0 11.4 9.6 17.0 14.9 14.4<br />

<strong>ABG</strong> <strong>Shipyard</strong># India 1.2 1.2 1.1 16.6 16.6 14.4 4.4 4.4 4.0 11.1 11.1 11.6<br />

Pipavav Defence & Offshore Engineering Co# India 2.9 2.7 2.5 260.8 150.3 54.3 19.1 15.8 13.6 1.1 1.8 4.7<br />

Pipavav <strong>Shipyard</strong># India 3.2 3.1 2.9 - - 41.7 - 80.3 20.6 - - 6.9<br />

# With regards to Indian companies three year data represents FY12, FY13 and FY14 (financial year ending in March)<br />

<strong>ICICI</strong> Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 8


RATING RATIONALE<br />

<strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. <strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com assigns<br />

ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them<br />

as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional<br />

target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.<br />

Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;<br />

Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;<br />

Hold: Up to +/-10%;<br />

Sell: -10% or more;<br />

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com<br />

<strong>ICICI</strong>direct.com Research Desk,<br />

<strong>ICICI</strong> Securities Limited,<br />

1 st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,<br />

Road No. 7, MIDC,<br />

Andheri (East)<br />

Mumbai – 400 093<br />

research@icicidirect.com<br />

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<strong>ICICI</strong> Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 9

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