Global Market Forecast 2011-2030 - EADS

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Executive summary ExEcutivE suMMary Background in the period following the fi nancial crisis in 2008 and 2009, there was understandably considerable uncertainty as to what effect these events would have on the aviation industry and for how long. One question that was frequently asked was “is it different this time?” Whilst the cause was damaging and with longer-term ramifi cations for the banking sector and sovereign debt, the aviation industry rebounded quickly posting positive traffi c and record fi nancial results in 2010: this rapid recovery clear evidence of the value that passengers and business place on the benefi ts of aviation. The Highlights Markets in the emerging economic nations are expected to continue to grow over the next 20 years; driven by their economic growth and demographic changes, including increasing urbanisation and the resulting increased wealth and therefore ability to fl y. Whilst not growing at the same pace, the more mature markets like North america and Europe will also grow, nearly doubling the amount of traffi c fl own, as connections, both personal and commercial are made with the developing economic nations. continued global liberalisation is giving greater market access to airlines, wider choice for passengers and improving the effi ciency of the industry. low-cost carriers will also continue to grow around the world, particularly in asia, while the network airlines will benefi t from demand on the important international markets and a wave of new international travel consumers from the emerging countries. changing dynamics, particularly network evolution and the role of aviation megacities and congestion, will infl uence the future of aviation. all of these drivers taken into consideration when developing this edition of the airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF). The Traffi c With the fact that historical growth in air passenger traffi c has been signifi cant, even when challenged by economic and other short term shocks, and is then combined with positive drivers with global scale, including socio-economic progress in the emerging markets, it is unsurprising that industry forecasters see continued growth in the long term. Examining the more than 160 traffi c fl ows in our forecast, has resulted in projected annual growth of 4.84% (rounded to 4.8%) from 2010 to 2030. this forecast is stronger than the 4.75% forecast in the previous GMF 2010. Globally, airbus continues to forecast the single biggest traffi c fl ow will be the us domestic market with 11.1% of all rPKs fl own. intra-Western European traffi c, with its well established global and low cost carriers, will be the third largest fl ow with nearly 8% of World rPKs. the chinese domestic market is forecast to grow at more than 7% per annum, moving it from the fourth largest fl ow in 2010 to the second by 2030. Global Market Forecast 12
1,390 new passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries per year over the 2011-2030 period 26,921 927 New deliveries 27,848 Recycled 3,440 Passenger Fleet Converted 2,197 Freighter Fleet Retired 8,302 9,704 1,402 Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats and freighters Source: Airbus GMF 2011 New passenger aircraft demand will average ~1,350 per year 20,000 19,165 15,000 10,000 5,000 4,518 1,907 1,331 0 Single aisle Small twin aisle Intermediate twin-aisle Very large aircraft % unit 71% 17% 7% 5% % value 6.5% 28% 15% 14% Source: Airbus GMF 2011
Page 1: delivering the future Global Market
Page 5 and 6: 12 16 42 60 124 Executive Summary D
Page 7 and 8: the expression the “miracle of fl
Page 9 and 10: today, whilst having an aviation in
Page 11: 4 Very Large Aircraft connecting th
Page 16 and 17: Executive summary The Fleet and Del
Page 19 and 20: Demand for air travel
Page 21 and 22: China, India and the USA - the most
Page 23 and 24: The world is moving toward better s
Page 25 and 26: Long-haul traffi c 500% 400% Year-o
Page 27 and 28: There are cities that traditionally
Page 29 and 30: A large portion of long-haul traffi
Page 31 and 32: Long-haul traffi c by regional flow
Page 33 and 34: Passed and future liberalisation dr
Page 35 and 36: Impact on air transport according t
Page 37 and 38: Fuel efficiency is the key Greater
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Page 41 and 42: Technological innovation Inspiratio
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Page 46 and 47: Defi ning demand PassENGEr traFFic
Page 48 and 49: PassENGEr traFFic Air travel has pr
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Page 52 and 53: PassENGEr traFFic Over the next 20
Page 54 and 55: Passenger Traffic Largest 20 traffi
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Page 58 and 59: Share and volume of 2010 RPKs Passe
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Page 63 and 64: the twin-aisle segment, combining,
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Load factor, or the efficiency with
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Large replacement opportunity for p
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Capacity growth accomodated by bigg
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Single-aisle 2011-2030 new passenge
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Number of new aircraft 2500 2,362 2
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In 2010, the A380 served 12 of the
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More fl ying Asia and emerging mark
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2010 Mainland China traffic at 260%
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Significant growth maintained in As
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With the asia-Pacifi c fl eet conta
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100 years of supply Strong and imme
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International consolidation As well
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GMF results for Europe Globally, we
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ecent economic upheaval has also mo
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with only 25% delivered to lccs. Wh
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LCC 10% 7% Other 37% 25% 1991-2010
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Middle Eastern airlines are still e
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2022: Qatar to be center of the foo
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Percentages of Arab and non-Arab wo
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The region will sustain very strong
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according to the iMF, latin america
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Strong growth of Latin America int
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Fleet and deliveries the average ai
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Brazil: football, now aviation, dyn
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GDP and passenger traffic developme
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in order to accommodate strong dema
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a growing regional economy, improvi
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Aviation connecting the African con
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Year-on-year growth rate of the wor
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Intra-regional air traffic below it
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GMF Results for Africa RPK growth:
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summary results Passenger traffic f
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Aircraft segmentation and in servic
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suMMary rEsults GMF Methodology the
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suMMary rEsults Regional & Affiliat
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summary results Airline fleet build
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Global Market Forecast 2011-2030 - EADS

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