Global Market Forecast 2011-2030 - EADS
Global Market Forecast 2011-2030 - EADS
Global Market Forecast 2011-2030 - EADS
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Fuelling Concerns<br />
dEMaNd FOr air travEl<br />
Oil price is an important consideration in aircraft<br />
forecasts as a result of its impact on economic<br />
activity, and the resulting impact it has on demand<br />
for aviation. ironically from aviation’s perspective,<br />
crude oil prices and economic activity are closely<br />
correlated: strong and developing economic<br />
activity increases demand for oil, which has a<br />
positive impact on crude oil prices. conversely,<br />
an exogenous increase of crude oil prices has a<br />
negative impact on economies, through infl ation<br />
and a negative shock on global demand.<br />
an analysis of the history shows that the correlation<br />
coeffi cient between world GdP and crude<br />
oil prices from 1979-2010 is 85%. the elasticity<br />
of GdP with respect to crude oil prices has been<br />
estimated by some economists, but they fi nd<br />
very different values as this elasticity depends<br />
on various factors such as oil dependence and<br />
monetary policy. airbus ensures that the economic<br />
forecasts it uses incorporates the effects of<br />
oil price and are clearly understood in the context<br />
of these forecasts.<br />
Fuel prices have an impact on the economy<br />
Scheme of the impact of oil prices on both the economy and air transport<br />
Inflation<br />
<strong>Global</strong> Demand<br />
Economy<br />
Fuel Price<br />
Airline Costs<br />
Air Fares<br />
Air Travel Demand<br />
Source: Ascend, ICAO, Airbus<br />
<strong>Global</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Forecast</strong> 32
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