Global Market Forecast 2011-2030 - EADS

More documents

Recommendations

Info

demand for air travel Long-haul traffic on routes linking the emerging regions will triple over the next 20 years 20-year evolution and share of long-haul traffic for selected traffic flows [RPK], 2010 set to 100%* 500% RPK traffic, 2030 vs. 2010 400% Intra Africa / Asia - Pacific / Middle East Trans-Pacific Intra Americas Intra Asia - Pacific 300% 200% Transatlantic Intra Africa / Middle East / Europe Europe – Asia # of nonstop city-pairs, 2030 vs. 2010 100% 100% 150% 200% Circle diameter proportional to 2030 share on total long-haul traffic * Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic Source: Airbus The highest growth in long-haul traffic is expected within the triangle of Africa, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. Some 20% of the 2030 traffic will be accommodated on new city-pairs, notably between the Middle East and the PRC. The PRC will also be the main contributor to new long-haul routes in the Asia-Pacific region; 40% of the new city-pairs will connect the PRC to South- East Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Australia. The long-haul sector between Europe, the Middle East and Africa is dominated by traffic between Europe and Middle East, where again most of the route openings are expected, notably between the U.A.E. hubs and more secondary cities in Europe. The Trans-Pacific will enjoy the strongest growth out of the big three long-haul flows. The main reason is the increasing weight of RPK traffic to China, which will reach similar dimensions as traffic to Japan. The most new non-stop route openings are forecast between Europe and Asia, in spite of strong competition coming from connections via the Middle East hubs. Both Trans-Pacific and Europe-to-Asia traffic will be carried to roughly 18% on newly opened city-pairs. The most fragmented long-haul market in terms of offered non-stop connections is the Trans-Atlantic sector, where more than 500 non-stop routes were served in 2010. However, new non-stop routes will only contribute to 10% of total traffic by 2030. The relatively low growth compared to other long-haul flows is due to the dominance of traffic between more mature regions; even by 2030, more than 60% of the Trans-Atlantic traffic will be between Canada, the US and Europe. But a high growth potential will still come from emerging flows from the Middle East and Africa to the Americas as well as from Europe to South America. These segments will raise their share of Trans-Atlantic traffic from 18% to more than 30% by 2030. Global Market Forecast 30
Passed and future liberalisation driving growth Airline commercial rights on international routes are governed by a web of more than 10,000 bilateral air services agreements between countries, in the frame of the 1944 Chicago Convention on international air transportation. In 1979, the US enacted the International Transportation Competition Act that promoted the establishment of liberalized bilateral air service agreements with foreign countries. An action intended to drive economic and air traffic growth and a move to allow increased competition due to removal of restrictions on capacity, frequency and pricing. An additional benefit was the gain in efficiency through the optimisation of networks. According to some studies, examples of liberalisation increased traffic by 12-35% when compared to the preceding years. In some exceptional cases even doubling traffic. In May 2004, eight Central and Eastern European countries became members of the EU, and also members of the Single European Aviation Market, a liberalised market. This resulted in a rapid entry of Low Cost Carriers (LCCs), with these new entrant countries quickly becoming a key growth area for air traffic in Europe. The growth generated can be demonstrated by examining traffic between the UK and new members. It can be seen that by 2006, traffic was more than two times higher than before CEE enlargement. Future liberalisation is expected to drive traffic growth in parts of Asia and Africa in the coming years. Something that forecasters will need to consider, in order not to underestimate growth in these regions. Number of passengers in a year on routes between UK and CEE-8 UK and EU-15 9,000 8,000 7,000 Passengers (x1000) 120,000 100,000 Passengers (x1000) 6,000 80,000 5,000 4,000 60,000 3,000 40,000 2,000 1,000 20,000 0 Source: Airbus 1996 2001 2006 0 Source: Airbus 1996 2001 2006
Page 1: delivering the future Global Market
Page 5 and 6: 12 16 42 60 124 Executive Summary D
Page 7 and 8: the expression the “miracle of fl
Page 9 and 10: today, whilst having an aviation in
Page 11: 4 Very Large Aircraft connecting th
Page 14 and 15: Executive summary ExEcutivE suMMary
Page 16 and 17: Executive summary The Fleet and Del
Page 19 and 20: Demand for air travel
Page 21 and 22: China, India and the USA - the most
Page 23 and 24: The world is moving toward better s
Page 25 and 26: Long-haul traffi c 500% 400% Year-o
Page 27 and 28: There are cities that traditionally
Page 29 and 30: A large portion of long-haul traffi
Page 31: Long-haul traffi c by regional flow
Page 35 and 36: Impact on air transport according t
Page 37 and 38: Fuel efficiency is the key Greater
Page 39 and 40: Airport capacity constraints - barr
Page 41 and 42: Technological innovation Inspiratio
Page 43 and 44: • Neural Technology the cabin ele
Page 46 and 47: Defi ning demand PassENGEr traFFic
Page 48 and 49: PassENGEr traFFic Air travel has pr
Page 50 and 51: PassENGEr traFFic Air transport fro
Page 52 and 53: PassENGEr traFFic Over the next 20
Page 54 and 55: Passenger Traffic Largest 20 traffi
Page 56 and 57: Passenger Traffic Airlines domicile
Page 58 and 59: Share and volume of 2010 RPKs Passe
Page 61 and 62: Demand for passenger aircraft
Page 63 and 64: the twin-aisle segment, combining,
Page 65 and 66: Load factor, or the efficiency with
Page 67 and 68: Large replacement opportunity for p
Page 69 and 70: Capacity growth accomodated by bigg
Page 71 and 72: Single-aisle 2011-2030 new passenge
Page 73 and 74: Number of new aircraft 2500 2,362 2
Page 75 and 76: In 2010, the A380 served 12 of the
Page 77 and 78: More fl ying Asia and emerging mark
Page 79 and 80: 2010 Mainland China traffic at 260%
Page 81 and 82: Significant growth maintained in As
Page 83 and 84:
With the asia-Pacifi c fl eet conta
Page 85 and 86:
100 years of supply Strong and imme
Page 87 and 88:
International consolidation As well
Page 89 and 90:
GMF results for Europe Globally, we
Page 91 and 92:
ecent economic upheaval has also mo
Page 93 and 94:
with only 25% delivered to lccs. Wh
Page 95 and 96:
LCC 10% 7% Other 37% 25% 1991-2010
Page 97 and 98:
Middle Eastern airlines are still e
Page 99 and 100:
2022: Qatar to be center of the foo
Page 101 and 102:
Percentages of Arab and non-Arab wo
Page 103 and 104:
The region will sustain very strong
Page 105 and 106:
according to the iMF, latin america
Page 107 and 108:
Strong growth of Latin America int
Page 109 and 110:
Fleet and deliveries the average ai
Page 111 and 112:
Brazil: football, now aviation, dyn
Page 113 and 114:
GDP and passenger traffic developme
Page 115 and 116:
in order to accommodate strong dema
Page 117 and 118:
a growing regional economy, improvi
Page 119 and 120:
Aviation connecting the African con
Page 121 and 122:
Year-on-year growth rate of the wor
Page 123 and 124:
Intra-regional air traffic below it
Page 125 and 126:
GMF Results for Africa RPK growth:
Page 128 and 129:
summary results Passenger traffic f
Page 130 and 131:
Aircraft segmentation and in servic
Page 132 and 133:
suMMary rEsults GMF Methodology the
Page 134 and 135:
suMMary rEsults Regional & Affiliat
Page 136:
summary results Airline fleet build
show all

Global Market Forecast 2011-2030 - EADS

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?