Global Market Forecast 2011-2030 - EADS

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2 More People will have access to the benefits of flight One component of traffi c growth, as always, will be the existing travellers who will simply need to fl y more. in a survey airbus conducted recently on the future of fl ying, respondents suggested they expected to nearly double the number of times they fl ew each year in the future. However, with emerging economies around the world rapidly growing their economies and as a result growing the wealth of their citizens, more and more people will be able to benefi t from aviation and fl y for the fi rst time. this effective and continuing democratisation of aviation, and something that is happening every day. Trips* per capita - 2010 Bahamas Maldives St Lucia Samoa Fiji Mauritius Malaysia Cape verde Costa Rica Chile Jordan Brazil Bolivia China Russia Uruguay Equatorial Guinea Senegal India Belarus Angola Liberia Swaziland Bangladesh Iraq Lesotho Seychelles Malta Cyprus Barbados Bahrain Spain Portugal Trinidad Latvia Oman Saudi Arabia South Korea Czech rep. Hungary Slovenia Slovakia World average Greece Brunei Israel Chad *Passengers originating from respective country Note: GDP in 2005 US$ Source: IATA PaxIS, Global Insight, Airbus 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 Global Market Forecast 6
today, whilst having an aviation infrastructure that is already large and growing fast, the people of china take just 0.2 trips per person per year. this compared to the largest domestic aviation market in the world in the us, where their fl ying citizens take on average nearly 2 trips per person per year. increasing wealth will however move these countries along the fl ight curve, fl ying more and helping to drive our forecast passenger traffi c growth at a 4.8% average annual growth rate per annum over the next 20 years. Forty years ago, 76% of the world’s traffi c fl ew from, to or between North america, Western Europe and Japan. today, as more of the world has embraced fl ight and been able to take advantage of its benefi ts this share has dramatically reversed. some 57% is now centered in other parts of the world. this is not to say that these original regions will not also grow, they will, almost doubling their traffi c over our forecast period. 70% of 2030 traffic volumes will be between expanding regions RPK (trillion) 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0 57% 37% 30% 24% 43% 76% 63% 1970 1990 2010 2030 Rest of world Traffic within & between USA, Canada, Western Europe and Japan 70% Source: Airbus GMF 2011 10 New Zealand Singapore Macao HK Australia Ireland Iceland UAE Italy Kuwait France Canada UK Finland Germany Belgium Japan Sweden USA Netherlands Denmark Switzerland 1 0.1 0.01 2010 Real GDP per Capita 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000
Page 1: delivering the future Global Market
Page 5 and 6: 12 16 42 60 124 Executive Summary D
Page 7: the expression the “miracle of fl
Page 11: 4 Very Large Aircraft connecting th
Page 14 and 15: Executive summary ExEcutivE suMMary
Page 16 and 17: Executive summary The Fleet and Del
Page 19 and 20: Demand for air travel
Page 21 and 22: China, India and the USA - the most
Page 23 and 24: The world is moving toward better s
Page 25 and 26: Long-haul traffi c 500% 400% Year-o
Page 27 and 28: There are cities that traditionally
Page 29 and 30: A large portion of long-haul traffi
Page 31 and 32: Long-haul traffi c by regional flow
Page 33 and 34: Passed and future liberalisation dr
Page 35 and 36: Impact on air transport according t
Page 37 and 38: Fuel efficiency is the key Greater
Page 39 and 40: Airport capacity constraints - barr
Page 41 and 42: Technological innovation Inspiratio
Page 43 and 44: • Neural Technology the cabin ele
Page 46 and 47: Defi ning demand PassENGEr traFFic
Page 48 and 49: PassENGEr traFFic Air travel has pr
Page 50 and 51: PassENGEr traFFic Air transport fro
Page 52 and 53: PassENGEr traFFic Over the next 20
Page 54 and 55: Passenger Traffic Largest 20 traffi
Page 56 and 57: Passenger Traffic Airlines domicile
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Share and volume of 2010 RPKs Passe
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Demand for passenger aircraft
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the twin-aisle segment, combining,
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Load factor, or the efficiency with
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Large replacement opportunity for p
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Capacity growth accomodated by bigg
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Single-aisle 2011-2030 new passenge
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Number of new aircraft 2500 2,362 2
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In 2010, the A380 served 12 of the
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More fl ying Asia and emerging mark
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2010 Mainland China traffic at 260%
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Significant growth maintained in As
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With the asia-Pacifi c fl eet conta
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100 years of supply Strong and imme
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International consolidation As well
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GMF results for Europe Globally, we
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ecent economic upheaval has also mo
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with only 25% delivered to lccs. Wh
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LCC 10% 7% Other 37% 25% 1991-2010
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Middle Eastern airlines are still e
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2022: Qatar to be center of the foo
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Percentages of Arab and non-Arab wo
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The region will sustain very strong
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according to the iMF, latin america
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Strong growth of Latin America int
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Fleet and deliveries the average ai
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Brazil: football, now aviation, dyn
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GDP and passenger traffic developme
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in order to accommodate strong dema
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a growing regional economy, improvi
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Aviation connecting the African con
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Year-on-year growth rate of the wor
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Intra-regional air traffic below it
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GMF Results for Africa RPK growth:
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summary results Passenger traffic f
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Aircraft segmentation and in servic
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suMMary rEsults GMF Methodology the
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suMMary rEsults Regional & Affiliat
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summary results Airline fleet build
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Global Market Forecast 2011-2030 - EADS

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