Global Market Forecast 2011-2030 - EADS

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1 People value flight, but not at any cost Global Market Forecast 4
the expression the “miracle of fl ight” is seldom heard these days, it is taken for granted that if we want to visit a client in the us, Europe or the emerging markets in asia, we can affordably get on an aircraft and be there the next day. if we want to visit our friends or relatives who have moved away with their jobs for example, it’s easy, no more diffi - cult than a few clicks of a mouse and a trip to the airport. But just because we don’t say it much in today’s modern world, it doesn’t mean that fl ying is no longer a man-made miracle. if someone were to say that they were going to take you to an altitude where you couldn’t breathe, where you would experience temperatures around -50 degrees, and then leave you there for anything between one and fourteen hours, you wouldn’t be very keen to go with them. yet that is exactly what 2 billion passengers do every year, without even a second thought, as they fl y to every corner of the world. Even when economic crises or other events serve to dampen demand, as we have seen from time to time, people still need to fl y, with air traffi c quickly returning to more normal growth levels. Even during a period when aviation had three of its severest tests following 9/11, sars, and the recent fi nancial crisis, aviation still managed to grow 45%, a fact that can only mean people really do need and want to fl y. What about the future? airbus commissioned an international study of over 10,000 people around the world, who will be the passengers of 2050, and what they expect from air travel in the future. From these respondents, 69% said they expected to fl y more, with the reasons in order of importance being, 1 economic growth, 2 a desire to see more of the world, 3 the need to see friends and family spread across the globe, and 4 greater flexibility between home and the workplace. However, signifi cantly, they also stated that reducing cO 2 emissions was one of the top two areas where they would like and expect to see technological advances. the good news is, so do we. in the last 40 years, manufacturers have reduced the fuel burn of aircraft and therefore cO 2 emissions by 70%, noise by 75%, with work continuing to deliver further improvements. in the last ten years the demand for jet fuel has increased 3%, whilst traffi c in terms of rPKs (revenue Passenger Kilometres) has increased 45%. aviation will continue to strive to become ever more eco-effi cient, reducing fuel burn per aircraft to the benefi t of the environment and airlines, who face the prospect of fuel being a signifi cant portion of their operating costs in the years to come. Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions) 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Oil Crisis 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: ICAO, Airbus Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis Asian Crisis WTC Attack SARS Financial Crisis +45%
Page 1: delivering the future Global Market
Page 5: 12 16 42 60 124 Executive Summary D
Page 9 and 10: today, whilst having an aviation in
Page 11: 4 Very Large Aircraft connecting th
Page 14 and 15: Executive summary ExEcutivE suMMary
Page 16 and 17: Executive summary The Fleet and Del
Page 19 and 20: Demand for air travel
Page 21 and 22: China, India and the USA - the most
Page 23 and 24: The world is moving toward better s
Page 25 and 26: Long-haul traffi c 500% 400% Year-o
Page 27 and 28: There are cities that traditionally
Page 29 and 30: A large portion of long-haul traffi
Page 31 and 32: Long-haul traffi c by regional flow
Page 33 and 34: Passed and future liberalisation dr
Page 35 and 36: Impact on air transport according t
Page 37 and 38: Fuel efficiency is the key Greater
Page 39 and 40: Airport capacity constraints - barr
Page 41 and 42: Technological innovation Inspiratio
Page 43 and 44: • Neural Technology the cabin ele
Page 46 and 47: Defi ning demand PassENGEr traFFic
Page 48 and 49: PassENGEr traFFic Air travel has pr
Page 50 and 51: PassENGEr traFFic Air transport fro
Page 52 and 53: PassENGEr traFFic Over the next 20
Page 54 and 55: Passenger Traffic Largest 20 traffi
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Passenger Traffic Airlines domicile
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Share and volume of 2010 RPKs Passe
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Demand for passenger aircraft
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the twin-aisle segment, combining,
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Load factor, or the efficiency with
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Large replacement opportunity for p
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Capacity growth accomodated by bigg
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Single-aisle 2011-2030 new passenge
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Number of new aircraft 2500 2,362 2
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In 2010, the A380 served 12 of the
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More fl ying Asia and emerging mark
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2010 Mainland China traffic at 260%
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Significant growth maintained in As
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With the asia-Pacifi c fl eet conta
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100 years of supply Strong and imme
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International consolidation As well
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GMF results for Europe Globally, we
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ecent economic upheaval has also mo
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with only 25% delivered to lccs. Wh
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LCC 10% 7% Other 37% 25% 1991-2010
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Middle Eastern airlines are still e
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2022: Qatar to be center of the foo
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Percentages of Arab and non-Arab wo
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The region will sustain very strong
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according to the iMF, latin america
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Strong growth of Latin America int
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Fleet and deliveries the average ai
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Brazil: football, now aviation, dyn
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GDP and passenger traffic developme
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in order to accommodate strong dema
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a growing regional economy, improvi
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Aviation connecting the African con
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Year-on-year growth rate of the wor
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Intra-regional air traffic below it
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GMF Results for Africa RPK growth:
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summary results Passenger traffic f
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Aircraft segmentation and in servic
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suMMary rEsults GMF Methodology the
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suMMary rEsults Regional & Affiliat
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summary results Airline fleet build
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Global Market Forecast 2011-2030 - EADS

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