Global Market Forecast 2011-2030 - EADS

dEMaNd FOr air travEl
Most urban growth is projected to take place
in the southern part of the world, with different
degrees of urbanisation. already, nearly threequarters
of the population of latin america live in
urban areas, close to the same level of urbanisation
as in developed countries. Whereas, urban
populations are expected to grow signifi cantly in
india, china and indonesia. By 2030, more than
half of the population of china and indonesia and
about 40% of the indian population will live in
cities. as new mega cities develop in the heart of
china, they will need to be quickly and effi ciently
connected. air transport is the ideal solution,
minimizing time, the impact on land use and cost
to government.
We are now living in a global economy, where not
only capital fl ows but the fl ow of people across
continents has become essential. air transport
has therefore become a vital part of this global
system by providing access to global markets
and facilitating the connection of people worldwide,
enabling increased foreign migration and
international tourism to many cities. according
to the World Bank, more than 200 million people
were living outside their country of birth in 2010.
the growth in migration and globalization has
been benefi cial to the travel and tourism industry
as immigrants tend to return home regularly to
visit friends and family. additionally, according to
the united Nations World tourism Organisation,
40% of international tourists now travel by air,
with air and international tourism arrivals expected
to reach nearly 1.6 billion by the year 2020,
1.2 billion will be intra-regional and 378 million will
be long-haul travelers. the age of populations
will also affect the amount and type of travel in
the future, for example statistically, older, more
affl uent retired people in developed countries
take the longest trips.
For decades, air traffi c has been led by urban
areas representing centers of production, distribution,
services and culture. today, most of cities
in developed countries are economic giants.
For example, london, New york and tokyo’s
economies are already larger than those of some
nation-states.
as globalization blurs national borders and intensifi
es competition, cities from the developing
world, such as shanghai, Beijing, seoul, Mumbai,
delhi, dubai are also quickly becoming economic
giants, inturn attracting a high number of air traffi
c passengers. the emergence of global cities
and global companies will increases the demand
and connectivity between cities and will drive the
shape and development of the air transport in
the future and in turn the numbers and types of
aircraft which will be needed.
Global Market Forecast 20