Global Market Forecast 2011-2030 - EADS

Recovery much stronger than anticipated
one year before
5%
4%
World real GDP growth (%)
4.0%
4.0%
3.5% 3.6%
3%
2%
1.6%
2.7%
3.1%
3.4%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
Source: Airbus, IMS Global Insight
-2.0%
January 2011 forecast
January 2010 forecast
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
therefore with better than expected economic
activity, traffi c and lower fuel prices, 2010
became a record year in terms of airline profi -
tability with a us$30 billion cumulated airline
operating profi t.
Over the past forty years, worldwide air travel
has been characterised by periods of strong
growth interspersed with slowdowns caused by
a series of economic and fi nancial issues and
at times made worse by war, diseases or other
events. Having gone through one of the most
severe economic crisis in its history, demand for
air transport has again proved its extraordinary
resilience. in 2010, worldwide air travel measured
in rPKs was more than ten times higher
than in 1970, forty years earlier, and surprisingly
45% above the 2000 levels despite having two
of the worst downturns the industry has experienced
in the intervening years.
2010: Airline profi tability at record high level
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
World airline operating
profit (US$ billions)
-5
-10
-15
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: IATA, Airbus