Shell energy scenarios to 2050 - Manicore

1An era ofrevolutionarytransitionsThe world can no longeravoid three hard truths aboutenergy supply and demand.1: Step-change in energy useDeveloping nations, including population giants China and India, are enteringtheir most energy-intensive phase of economic growth as they industrialise, buildinfrastructure, and increase their use of transportation. Demand pressures willstimulate alternative supply and more efficiency in energy use — but these alonemay not be enough to offset growing demand tensions completely. Disappointingthe aspirations of millions by adopting policies that may slow economic growthis not an answer either — or not one that is politically feasible.2: Supply will struggle to keep paceBy 2015, growth in the production of easily accessible oil and gas will not matchthe projected rate of demand growth. While abundant coal exists in many partsof the world, transportation difficulties and environmental degradation ultimatelypose limits to its growth. Meanwhile, alternative energy sources such as biofuelsmay become a much more significant part of the energy mix — but there is no“silver bullet” that will completely resolve supply-demand tensions.3: Environmental stresses are increasingEven if it were possible for fossil fuels to maintain their current share of theenergy mix and respond to increased demand, CO 2emissions would then beon a pathway that could severely threaten human well-being. Even with themoderation of fossil fuel use and effective CO 2management, the path forward isstill highly challenging. Remaining within desirable levels of CO 2concentrationin the atmosphere will become increasingly difficult.8