Shell energy scenarios to 2050 - Manicore

DriversScrambleBlueprintsChoicePricesEfficiency technologyEfficiency behaviour• Mandates• Externalities not included• Mandates• Necessity• Market driven but incentivised• Externalities included• Economic incentives & standards• Designed inOil & gasCoalNuclearElectric renewablesBiomass• Constrained growth• Flight into coal• Modest uptake• Sequential - wind, solar• Strong growth• Long plateau• Coal not wanted unless “clean”• Continued growth• Incentivise early stage technologies• Complements alternative fuel mixInnovationImplementationMobilityPowerIT• Strongly guarded• National “docking points”• Hybrids & downsizing• Efficiency• Supply optimisation• Extensively shared• International “tipping points”• Hybrids & electrification• Carbon capture & storage• Demand load management systemsLand usePollutionClimate / BiodiversityWater• Energy vs. food principle• Important locally• Background global concern• Energy production & climatechange impact• Sustainability principle• Important• Prominent local & global concern• Factored into developmentframeworks41