Shell energy scenarios to 2050 - Manicore

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2.6 Necessity – the mother of inventionAlthough change must and does occur, the turnaround takes a decade becauselarge-scale transformations of the energy system are required. High domesticprices and exceptionally demanding standards imposed by governmentsprovoke significant advances in energy efficiency. Eventually, locally developedalternative supplies -- biofuels, wind, and thermal solar -- also contribute on amuch greater scale than before. By 2030, healthy economic growth is restored,with particular vibrancy in the new energy sector that has received a massivestimulus to innovation through this difficult period.The declining share of hydrocarbon fuels in the overall energy mix, the growingcontribution from alternative energy sources, and greater energy efficiencyall moderate the rate of growth of CO 2in the atmosphere. But the subsequentrestoration of economic growth means that vigorous energy consumption resumeswith its accompanying rebound in CO 2emissions – and concentrations are alreadyhigh. A consensus develops around the need for a new international approachto energy security and climate change mitigation – but the world is twenty yearsbehind where it would have been had it set up such a system by 2015. Economicgrowth continues to deliver increasing prosperity to many, but market responsesto greenhouse gas challenges have been delayed by the absence of regulatorycertainty or international agreements. An increasing fraction of economic activityand innovation is ultimately directed towards preparing for the impact of climatechange. Having avoided some hard choices early on, nations now recognisethey are likely to face expensive consequences beyond 2050.22
nieuwe grafieken.pdf 28-02-2008 11:32:54China is already the largest emitter of CO 2and by 2035 China’stotal carbon emissions represent 30% of the world’s total.p23 (key Direct stays CO the 2same) emissions from energy in 203515tonne CO 2 per capita per year10500 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Population (billion)RussiaNorth AmericaAsia China& Oceania - DevelopedChina Asia & Oceania - DevelopedEuropeEuropeMiddle East N AfricaMiddle East & N. AfricaIndiaIndiaLatin AmericaLatin AmericaAsia & Oceania - DevelopingSub-SaharanAsia & OceaniaAfrica- DevelopingSub-Saharan Africap29 Note changes incl keyGrowth of atmospheric CO 2and other GHGsThe releaseGJ per capita (primary energy)400 of carbon dioxide (CO 2) into the atmosphere due to the use of fossilfuels since the start of the industrial revolution, and the large-scale deforestation ofthe planet that began in the Middle Ages, has changed the carbon balance of the300 planet. The increasing concentration of CO 2and other greenhouse gases (GHGs)in the atmosphere is almost universally accepted as responsible USA for global warming.CO 2has risen from 280 parts per million by volume (ppm) Europe in pre-industrial EU 15 times200 to 380 ppm today and is set to rise rapidly as world economicJapandevelopmentaccelerates. This trend is not sustainable if climate change is to be moderated.South Korea100ChinaIndia00 40 80 12023GDP per capita (PPP, '000 2000 USD)
Page 4: AcknowledgementsOur thanks go to Sh
Page 8 and 9: ?IntroductionHow can I prepare for,
Page 10 and 11: 1An era ofrevolutionarytransitionsT
Page 12 and 13: Preparing for the futureWhen all th
Page 15 and 16: 2ScrambleScramble - overview at a g
Page 17 and 18: higher energy prices relatively eas
Page 19 and 20: First coal, then biofuels followed
Page 21 and 22: Biomass represents around 15% of pr
Page 23: 2.5 The bumpy road to climate chang
Page 28 and 29: The unfolding story3.1 Starting at
Page 30 and 31: 3.2 Paths to alignmentThis critical
Page 32 and 33: 3.3 Developments benefit the energy
Page 34 and 35: 3.4 Both disaggregation and integra
Page 36 and 37: Closer cross-border cooperation inc
Page 38 and 39: 3.5 Blueprints for climate change r
Page 40 and 41: Three Hard Truths4Scenariotimeline1
Page 42 and 43: 4ScenariocomparisonsWhat are the en
Page 44 and 45: !Shell energy scenarios:concluding
Page 46 and 47: GlossaryAbbreviationsboe = barrel o
Page 48 and 49: Summary quantification2000 2010 202
Page 50 and 51: Disclaimer statementThis document c

Shell energy scenarios to 2050 - Manicore

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