Shell energy scenarios to 2050 - Manicore

2.6 Necessity – the mother of inventionAlthough change must and does occur, the turnaround takes a decade becauselarge-scale transformations of the energy system are required. High domesticprices and exceptionally demanding standards imposed by governmentsprovoke significant advances in energy efficiency. Eventually, locally developedalternative supplies -- biofuels, wind, and thermal solar -- also contribute on amuch greater scale than before. By 2030, healthy economic growth is restored,with particular vibrancy in the new energy sector that has received a massivestimulus to innovation through this difficult period.The declining share of hydrocarbon fuels in the overall energy mix, the growingcontribution from alternative energy sources, and greater energy efficiencyall moderate the rate of growth of CO 2in the atmosphere. But the subsequentrestoration of economic growth means that vigorous energy consumption resumeswith its accompanying rebound in CO 2emissions – and concentrations are alreadyhigh. A consensus develops around the need for a new international approachto energy security and climate change mitigation – but the world is twenty yearsbehind where it would have been had it set up such a system by 2015. Economicgrowth continues to deliver increasing prosperity to many, but market responsesto greenhouse gas challenges have been delayed by the absence of regulatorycertainty or international agreements. An increasing fraction of economic activityand innovation is ultimately directed towards preparing for the impact of climatechange. Having avoided some hard choices early on, nations now recognisethey are likely to face expensive consequences beyond 2050.22