Shell energy scenarios to 2050 - Manicore

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3.5 Blueprints for climate change responsesAgreements on how to address climate concerns are not the result of a miraculouschange in the behaviour of political leaders. They reflect the way that grassrootsvalues are now imprinting themselves on political agendas through the mediaand international pressure groups. They also stem from pressure exerted byindustry eager for regulatory clarity and consistency. Such pressure results inbreakthroughs in an international architecture for managing energy securityconcerns in parallel with options for climate change mitigation and adaptation.After the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012, a meaningful international carbontradingframework with robust verification and accreditation emerges from thepatchwork of regional and city-city schemes. Consistent U.S. policy support fortechnology investment and deployment pays dividends in providing tangiblebreakthroughs for effective change. More reliable energy statistics and betterinformed market analysis allow carbon-trading futures markets to reflect clearerlong-term price signals. Because of these frameworks, markets can anticipatetightness in CO 2emission allocations and plan for them.By 2055, the U.S. and the EU are using an average of 33% less energy per capitathan today. Chinese energy use has also peaked. India is still climbing its energyladder, but as a relative latecomer, it has to be resourceful in following a lowerenergy-intensive development path. The political and bureaucratic effort to harmoniseand align energy policies is difficult and requires a great deal of up-front investment —but in Blueprints, in a critical mass of countries, people support national leaderswho promise not only energy security but also a sustainable future. Initial pain hasreduced uncertainty and prepared the way for long-term gain.36
Concerted global efforts reduce CO 2emissions but do not preventeconomic growth. Nevertheless, stabilising GHG levels in theatmosphere at or below 450 ppm of CO 2-equivalent - a levelscientific evidence suggests is necessary to significantly reducethe risks of climate change - remains a significant challenge.P37Direct CO 2emissions from energyGt CO Gt 2 CO per 2 yearper year50 5040 40302010302010Sub-Saharan AfricaAfricaMiddle Middle East East & N N. & Africa N AfricaLatin Latin AmericaAmericaAsia Asia & Oceania & - Developing- Asia Asia & Oceania & - Developed- North North AmericaEuropeEurope0 02000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 20502050Reducing the growth of atmospheric GHGsToday, more attention is being paid to all GHGs, not just CO 2. Methane, for instance, isanother important GHG and its levels are rising. Limiting the increase of total GHG levelsin the atmosphere is expected to reduce the probability of dangerous climate change.Reversing the growth of emissions requires meaningful carbon pricing to shape choicesand encourage greater efficiency in energy use, and effective policies to acceleratethe demonstration and deployment of low-emission technologies. Energy-related CO 2emissions today account for around two-thirds of all GHG emissions from humanactivity, so transforming our use of energy is a major priority. This will require early andwidespread implementation of CCS, large-scale development of renewable electricity,second-generation biofuels and rapid penetration of electric vehicles after 2020.Limiting GHG concentrations to 450 ppm CO 2-equivalent is expected to limit temperaturerises to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This would be extremely challengingto achieve, requiring an explosive pace of industrial transformation going beyond eventhe aggressive developments outlined in the Blueprints scenario. It would require globalGHG emissions to peak before 2015, a zero-emission power sector by 2050 and anear zero-emission transport sector in the same time period, complete electrification ofthe residential sector, with remaining energy-related emissions limited to niche areas oftransport and industrial production (of cement and metals for example).37
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Page 10 and 11: 1An era ofrevolutionarytransitionsT
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Page 23 and 24: 2.5 The bumpy road to climate chang
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Page 28 and 29: The unfolding story3.1 Starting at
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Page 36 and 37: Closer cross-border cooperation inc
Page 40 and 41: Three Hard Truths4Scenariotimeline1
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Shell energy scenarios to 2050 - Manicore

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