Shell energy scenarios to 2050 - Manicore

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3.4 Both disaggregation and integrationBy 2050, one of the key revolutionary transitions observable in Blueprints is thateconomic growth no longer mainly relies on an increase in the use of fossil fuels.It is increasingly a world of electrons rather than molecules. Electric vehiclesare becoming the norm in the transport sector because of their attractiveness toconsumers and cost-effectiveness once governments have incentivised the buildupto mass production. Power generation from renewable energy sources isgrowing rapidly, while utilities that still rely on coal and gas are required toimplement strict carbon abatement technologies. In the developed world, almost90% of all coal-fired and gas-fired power stations in the OECD and 50% in thenon-OECD world have been equipped with CCS technologies by 2050. Thisreduces overall CO 2emissions by 15 to 20% compared to what they wouldhave been without CCS. New financial, insurance, and trading markets arealready emerging that help finance the major investments necessary to build thisnew infrastructure. Europe’s lack of indigenous fossil fuels does not place it at adisadvantage, thanks to the emergence of these new renewable technologies.It does well economically in spite of its shrinking population and the fact thatcapital stock was replaced earlier to meet tightening efficiency requirements.In Blueprints, a second, more profound transition occurs at the political level,where there is increased synergy between national policies and those undertakenat the sub-national and international levels. While details may differ from nationto nation, international organisations – concerned with the environment, globaleconomic health and energy – increasingly agree on what works and whatdoes not. This makes “big-picture” action more possible than ever. Unlikelypartnerships begin to form across political divides. Cities across the worldcontinue to share experience and create broader partnerships. The C-40 groupof leading cities, which continue to grow in number, identifies best practices inurban development and eventually rural areas begin to join these coalitions – inpart to avoid becoming the dumping grounds for old technologies.32
Reducing CO 2emissions through electrification triggers stronggrowth in the power sector and pulls in renewable energies.By 2050, over 60% of electricity is generated by non-fossil sources.Carbon capture and storage can make an important contributionto reduce emissions but is not a silver bullet.P31New chart to comeFinal energy consumption of electricityP33EJ per year r2001501005002000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Other RenewablesOtherWindRenewablesWindSolarSolarBiomass + WasteBiomass + + WWasteHydroelectricityHydroelectricityNuclearNuclearCoalCoalGasGasOil OilOilCarbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)There are many technical options for capturing CO 2. Once captured, CO 2can bestored underground (in aquifers or in certain oil and gas fields), or used in someindustrial processes. However, capturing and storing CO 2is energy intensive andexpensive. CCS is technically feasible with today’s technologies but has not yetbeen deployed on a large scale. Its development will require the creation of asubstantial CCS infrastructure, incentives for greenhouse gas emission control(e.g. CO 2pricing or emission intensity targets), and the addressing of regulation,permitting, safety and liability issues.Given these requirements, large-scale deployment of CCS is not expected to take placeuntil at least 2020. Even then, CCS is not without drawbacks: its use inevitably reducesthe efficiency of power stations and so increases the pressure on the energy system.Reaching an annual storage capacity of 6 gigatonnes of CO 2– a substantial contributionto efforts to lower emissions – would require an enormous transportation and storage siteinfrastructure twice the scale of today’s global natural gas infrastructure. Nevertheless,by 2050 CCS can make an important contribution to CO 2management.33
Page 4: AcknowledgementsOur thanks go to Sh
Page 8 and 9: ?IntroductionHow can I prepare for,
Page 10 and 11: 1An era ofrevolutionarytransitionsT
Page 12 and 13: Preparing for the futureWhen all th
Page 15 and 16: 2ScrambleScramble - overview at a g
Page 17 and 18: higher energy prices relatively eas
Page 19 and 20: First coal, then biofuels followed
Page 21 and 22: Biomass represents around 15% of pr
Page 23 and 24: 2.5 The bumpy road to climate chang
Page 25: nieuwe grafieken.pdf 28-02-2008 11:
Page 28 and 29: The unfolding story3.1 Starting at
Page 30 and 31: 3.2 Paths to alignmentThis critical
Page 32 and 33: 3.3 Developments benefit the energy
Page 36 and 37: Closer cross-border cooperation inc
Page 38 and 39: 3.5 Blueprints for climate change r
Page 40 and 41: Three Hard Truths4Scenariotimeline1
Page 42 and 43: 4ScenariocomparisonsWhat are the en
Page 44 and 45: !Shell energy scenarios:concluding
Page 46 and 47: GlossaryAbbreviationsboe = barrel o
Page 48 and 49: Summary quantification2000 2010 202
Page 50 and 51: Disclaimer statementThis document c

Shell energy scenarios to 2050 - Manicore

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