Shell energy scenarios to 2050 - Manicore

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!Shell energy scenarios:concluding remarksThe Scramble and Blueprints outlooksare both rooted in detailed analysesof energy supply, demand, andtechnology fundamentals. Of course,it is impossible to condense the fullrichness of scenarios into a briefoverview, but we trust this booklethas given you a good flavour of themain insights of Shell’s latest energyscenarios, along with the choices to befaced and their key implications.Neither of the scenarios is comfortable,which is to be expected given thehard truths we are facing. Whileboth portray successful economicdevelopment and the globalisationthat accompanies this, both also havebranching points that could potentiallylead towards escalating geopoliticalchaos. They create different legaciesfor future generations, with both goodand disturbing features. Together,however, they sketch the landscape ofpossibilities, constraints, opportunitiesand choices for this era of revolutionarytransitions in the global energysystem.Some readers may find one scenariopreferable to the other, or one moreplausible than the other. This should notbe surprising as readers will approachthese outlooks with their own uniqueexperience and interests. In truth, wehave found all possible combinationsof reactions to the two storylines aswe have developed and discussed thescenario material with specialists andgroups from different backgroundsacross the globe. This has confirmedto us that both are realistic and bothare challenging.To get the most out of the storylines,we recommend reviewing them witha number of specific questions inmind such as: “what are the potentialmilestones or events that couldparticularly affect us?”; “what are42
ThereAreNoIdealAnswersthe most significant factors that willinfluence our environment and howcould these play out?”; and “whatshould we do in the next five yearsto help prepare for, or shape, theturbulent times ahead?”We are pleased to share our thinkingwith you. Together, we all face thefuture of TANIA over the next fifty years.Though there are no ideal answersto the coming challenges we will,however, be required to address manydifficult questions. The more clearlywe can see the complex dynamicsof tomorrow’s world, the better wemight navigate through the inevitableturbulence. We hope these scenarioswill make a modest contribution tohelping us all do so.“If historians now seethe turn of the 19 thcentury as the dawno f t h e i n d u s t r i a lrevolution, I hopethey will see the turnof the 21 st centuryas the dawn of theenergy revolution.Rob RoutsExecutive DirectorDownstreamRoyal Dutch Shell plcApeldoorn, June 2007“Jeremy B. BenthamShell International B.V.43
Page 4: AcknowledgementsOur thanks go to Sh
Page 8 and 9: ?IntroductionHow can I prepare for,
Page 10 and 11: 1An era ofrevolutionarytransitionsT
Page 12 and 13: Preparing for the futureWhen all th
Page 15 and 16: 2ScrambleScramble - overview at a g
Page 17 and 18: higher energy prices relatively eas
Page 19 and 20: First coal, then biofuels followed
Page 21 and 22: Biomass represents around 15% of pr
Page 23 and 24: 2.5 The bumpy road to climate chang
Page 25: nieuwe grafieken.pdf 28-02-2008 11:
Page 28 and 29: The unfolding story3.1 Starting at
Page 30 and 31: 3.2 Paths to alignmentThis critical
Page 32 and 33: 3.3 Developments benefit the energy
Page 34 and 35: 3.4 Both disaggregation and integra
Page 36 and 37: Closer cross-border cooperation inc
Page 38 and 39: 3.5 Blueprints for climate change r
Page 40 and 41: Three Hard Truths4Scenariotimeline1
Page 42 and 43: 4ScenariocomparisonsWhat are the en
Page 46 and 47: GlossaryAbbreviationsboe = barrel o
Page 48 and 49: Summary quantification2000 2010 202
Page 50 and 51: Disclaimer statementThis document c

Shell energy scenarios to 2050 - Manicore

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