Shell energy scenarios to 2050 - Manicore

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3.3 Developments benefit the energy poorIn Blueprints, the disorderly but early development of innovative solutions andadoption of proven practices from the grassroots benefit low-income nations aswell. Initially, this stems from the dynamics of the oil market: OPEC raises oilproduction to maintain lower prices and defer the development of more costlysubstitutes. Benefits also begin to emerge from accelerated growth in distributedpower generation from wind and solar energy. New wind turbines and morecost-effective solar panels are easily exported to rural areas, and in a relativelybrief time, many African villages have a wind- or solar-powered energy supply fordrawing water from deeper, cleaner wells — and for later development needs.India, too, invests heavily in wind, while China pioneers new developments insolar energy — and these technological developments in both wind and solarare exported back to the west, accelerating the uptake of solar in particular.Government mandates for vehicles with significantly reduced and zero emissions,fiscal incentives to support the build-up of mass production, and ever-more windand solar power all stimulate a surge in electric transport – powered by battery,fuel-cell or hybrid technologies. This growth in the use of electric vehicles allowsmost nations to enter the plateau of oil production without the shocks that theywould otherwise have experienced. In Blueprints, the more efficient end-use ofelectricity and the resulting slower growth in primary energy demand mean thatthe former energy poor enjoy an additional boost in their standard of livingmade possible by the resulting affordable energy prices.30
Chart for page 31High overall efficiency of electric cars reduces demand in theDelete transport Final energy sector and consumption changes the for transport fuel mix.AddGrowth of electricity in transportGrowth of electricity in transport3503503003002502001501005000Passenger distance travelled travelled (world), (world), index index 2000 2000 = = 100 100200020252050Electric transportElectric transportLiquid fuelsLiquid fuelsReplace chart with above, key should be round bullets and text etc should be as per o31
Page 4: AcknowledgementsOur thanks go to Sh
Page 8 and 9: ?IntroductionHow can I prepare for,
Page 10 and 11: 1An era ofrevolutionarytransitionsT
Page 12 and 13: Preparing for the futureWhen all th
Page 15 and 16: 2ScrambleScramble - overview at a g
Page 17 and 18: higher energy prices relatively eas
Page 19 and 20: First coal, then biofuels followed
Page 21 and 22: Biomass represents around 15% of pr
Page 23 and 24: 2.5 The bumpy road to climate chang
Page 25: nieuwe grafieken.pdf 28-02-2008 11:
Page 28 and 29: The unfolding story3.1 Starting at
Page 30 and 31: 3.2 Paths to alignmentThis critical
Page 34 and 35: 3.4 Both disaggregation and integra
Page 36 and 37: Closer cross-border cooperation inc
Page 38 and 39: 3.5 Blueprints for climate change r
Page 40 and 41: Three Hard Truths4Scenariotimeline1
Page 42 and 43: 4ScenariocomparisonsWhat are the en
Page 44 and 45: !Shell energy scenarios:concluding
Page 46 and 47: GlossaryAbbreviationsboe = barrel o
Page 48 and 49: Summary quantification2000 2010 202
Page 50 and 51: Disclaimer statementThis document c

Shell energy scenarios to 2050 - Manicore

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