Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability of Breeding Birds in Arctic ...

CCVI Modification #1: Temperature Exposure CategoriesThe CCVI tool uses projected changes in the magnitude of atmospheric temperature and moisture (HamonAET:PET reflecting the interaction of precipitation and temperature as the potential for drying; see Appendix A fordetail) to assess climate exposure for each species. The magnitude of change categories in the CCVI are based on +/-standard deviations from the average change in temperature/moisture projected for the conterminous United States(i.e., did not include Alaska). Due to the high magnitude of temperature change projected for Alaska, the exposureinputs for all species fell in the highest magnitude category. Because the CCVI provides information about relativevulnerability within a specific assessment area (here the BCR3/Arctic LCC region), we re-scaled the temperaturecategories to reflect the standard deviations from the average projected change in temperature for the state of Alaskato offer the potential for some differentiation between species we reviewed.Table 2.3. Summary of the multiple climate projections used in different runs of the CCVI tool to compareinfluence on species’ vulnerability in the Arctic LCC (CW indicates Climate Wizard data).EmissionScenarioModel (GCM)1. A1B Temp: SNAP 5-model composite*/Moisture: CW 5-model average (SNAP models)2. A1B Temp: SNAP CCCMA model/Moisture: CW CCCMA model3. A1B Temp: SNAP ECHAM5 model/Moisture: CW 5-model average (SNAP models)4. A1B Temp: SNAP 5-model composite* /Moisture: TWS/SNAP-PET 5-model average5. A2 Temp: SNAP 5-model composite* /Moisture: CW 5-model average (SNAP models)6. A2 Temp: CW 5-model average (SNAP models) /Moisture: CW 5-model average (SNAP models)*Output of 5 climate models downscaled to 2 km by SNAP based on performance assessment for north: ECHAM5, GFDL21,MIROC, HAD, CCCMAArctic coastal plain of Alaska (Photo: S. Zack @ WCS)14