Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability of Breeding Birds in Arctic ...

egion since they sometimes prey on theeggs and young of nesting birds.The results also do not speak to theresponse of species to climate changeoutside of the Arctic LCC region of Alaska.The 54 species we considered in theassessment reflect a representative crosssectionof species in the Alaskan Arctic;however, species that currently do not occur(or barely occur) within the assessment areacould move into the region and subsequentlyaffect other species. For example, CommonLoons could expand their range northwardfrom interior Alaska and compete withYellow-billed Loons for resources.Similarly, some dabbling duck species thatare currently present but are more commonbreeders to the south (e.g. Mallard, NorthernShoveler) may increase and compete withspecies occupying similar niches to thenorth.It is appropriate to interpret ourassessment and other efforts to understandclimate change vulnerability in combinationwith existing conservation rankings (see alsoYoung et al. 2010), as climate change mayexacerbate stressors that are alreadyaffecting many bird species (e.g., Gardali etal. 2012). Three of the four species currentlylisted under the US Endangered Species Actor recently considered for such listing inArctic Alaska were ranked as vulnerable inour assessment (e.g., Steller’s Eider, BuffbreastedSandpiper, Yellow-billed Loon;Figure 4.1). Spectacled Eiders, another listedspecies, was near the vulnerability threshold.For these species, our results reinforceconsiderations for continued protections. Atthe same time, our assessment might raiseconcerns about climate changevulnerabilities for species otherwiseconsidered stable with respect to the effectsof non-climate stressors (e.g. Gyrfalcon,Common Eider).It may also be prudent to morethoroughly consider the key sources ofsensitivity identified for species that arepresumed stable but near the moderatelyvulnerable threshold. While from a relativeperspective these species may not be ofgreatest concern, a single key climaterelatedsensitivity has the potential to bedetrimental. It may be useful to focusresearch agendas and proactively developresponse strategies and monitoring plansthat can be integrated into relevantmanagement plans.Conservation and management activitiesIt should be acknowledged that tools forreducing climate change vulnerabilities maybe somewhat limited in Arctic Alaska. Theregion’s vast size and remoteness, and thesensitivity of its habitats to change, make itdifficult to contemplate actionscommensurate with the potential impacts(Zack and Liebezeit 2012). The results ofthis assessment enhance our understandingof the potential responses of particularspecies to climate change and maycontribute to thinking about futureconservation actions and land protection inthe context of energy and other developmentissues. Attempting to identify climaterefugia and enhancing the protection of largeunits of land may, at present, be the beststrategy for conserving species as climatedrives changes in the region. Our assessmentsuggests several species for which climateinducedlandscape changes might reduce thequality or availability of suitable habitat incurrently utilized locations.30