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Species sensitivityWe included several bird groups in ourassessment, ranging from terrestrial tofreshwater aquatic and marine species, and,not surprisingly, the species within thesegroups often shared similar scores for thesensitivity factors. Many of the species haveextensive ranges, whether migratory orresident, and experience varying climateconditions throughout their annual life cycle.As a result, temperature was indicated as aphysiologically limiting factor for only afew species and, even in those cases, onlyslightly increased vulnerability. However,due to dependencies on different types ofwetland or marine settings, physiologicalhydrological niche was thought to have thegreatest potential of all the sensitivity factorsto influence vulnerability (“Increase” and“Greatly increase”). All but two speciesreceived scores indicating this sensitivitymight lead to at least a slight increase invulnerability. For roughly half of the birds,some type of interspecific interaction (e.g.,predator-prey relationships) was identifiedas possibly shaping the species’ response toclimate change.The remaining sensitivity factorstypically had either neutral to potentiallypositive or ambiguous influence on thebreeding birds we assessed. There were fewspecies for which either restrictions tophysical habitat elements or limited dietmight limit their ability to respond tochanging climate. The net effect of changesto important disturbance regimes wasuniversally considered difficult to determinesince different disturbances might shiftpopulation abundance and/or range inopposite directions. In addition, mostexperts expressed low confidence in theirassessment of the effects of climate changeon disturbances and the subsequent effectsto species (Figure 3.1). Much of theinformation needed to score the genetic andphenological response factors was alsounknown. Of the 18 species for whichinformation about their documented ormodeled response to climate change wasavailable, all but two (Gyrfalcon and KingEider) showed little to no associated shifts indistribution or abundance and received“neutral” scores in this optional section ofthe CCVI tool.The PCA scatter-plot in Figure 3.2illustrates some of the similarities anddifferences between the 54 bird species inthe factors contributing to their overallclimate change vulnerability. The axisloadings (Figure 3.2.b.) indicate which ofthe sensitivity factors most stronglyinfluence the species’ patterns. Historicaland physiological hydrological niche, and toa lesser degree sensitivity to SLR, humanresponse to climate change, and dispersalbarriers, separate species along axis 1 (xaxis),with the more sensitive species on thepositive end. Birds are grouped along axis 2(y-axis) primarily with regard to physicalhabitat restrictions (e.g., geologicalsubstrates and cliffs). Most of the specieswith habitat restrictions are located nearestthe top of the plot (e.g., Gyrfalcon, SnowBunting, Common Eider). Physiologicalhydrological niche also contributes to theaxis 2 patterns. Therefore, all of the speciessensitive to either historical or physiologicalhydrological niche are in the lower or upperright quadrant of the scatter-plot. Notsurprisingly, this includes many of thewaterfowl and shorebirds that are dependenton water to varying degrees during thebreeding season.19
Figure 3.1. Categorical “confidence” assigned to the factor scores by the expert sub-group (6 reviewers and theirresponses for the 54 species) that re-evaluated the sensitivity responses of the original group of individual species’experts. Bars represent the relative proportions of “high”, “medium”, and “low” confidence ratings for each factor.A male Pectoral Sandpiper. A common breeder inArctic Alaska. (Photo: S. Zack @ WCS)20
Page 1 and 2: Assessing Climate Change Vulnerabil
Page 3 and 4: CONTENTSExecutive Summary..........
Page 5 and 6: have the greatest potential to infl
Page 7 and 8: al. 2012). Over 90 species of birds
Page 9 and 10: elative vulnerabilities of habitats
Page 11 and 12: Section 2. MethodsThere are numerou
Page 14 and 15: esults by assuming that each level
Page 16 and 17: Table 2.3. Numerical index score th
Page 18 and 19: Emission Scenarios and Climate Proj
Page 20 and 21: data, interpretations of scatter-pl
Page 24 and 25: Figure 3.2. (a) The sensitivity “
Page 26 and 27: Figure 3.4. The proportion of the M
Page 28 and 29: Figure 3.6. Contribution of the dif
Page 30 and 31: would be more vulnerable lacking cu
Page 32 and 33: ut there are great challenges to co
Page 34 and 35: Figure 4.1. The vulnerability resul
Page 36 and 37: ReferencesAlaska Shorebird Group (A
Page 38 and 39: Morrison, R.I.G., B.J. McCaffery, R
Page 40 and 41: AcknowledgmentsWe thank the Arctic
Page 42 and 43: Appendix BSpecies AccountsPhotos: S
Page 44 and 45: Tundra Swan (Cygnus columbianus)Vul
Page 46 and 47: Greater White-fronted Goose (Anser
Page 48 and 49: Snow Goose (Chen Caerulescens)Vulne
Page 50 and 51: Brant (Branta bernicla)Vulnerabilit
Page 52 and 53: Cackling/Canada Goose (Branta hutch
Page 54 and 55: Northern Pintail (Anas acuta)Vulner
Page 56 and 57: Greater Scaup (Aythya marila)Vulner
Page 58 and 59: Steller’s Eider (Polysticta stell
Page 60 and 61: Spectacled Eider (Somateria fischer
Page 62 and 63: King Eider (Somateria spectabilis)V
Page 64 and 65: Common Eider (Somateria mollissima)
Page 66 and 67: Long-tailed Duck (Clangula hyemalis
Page 68 and 69: Willow Ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus)V
Page 70 and 71: Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus mutus)Vulne
Page 72 and 73:
Red-throated Loon (Gavia stellata)V
Page 74 and 75:
Pacific Loon (Gavia pacifica)Vulner
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Yellow-billed Loon (Gavia adamsii)V
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Rough-legged Hawk (Buteo lagopus)Vu
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Gyrfalcon (Falco rusticolus)Vulnera
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Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrinus)
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Black-bellied Plover (Pluvialis squ
Page 86 and 87:
American Golden-plover (Pluvialis d
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Whimbrel (Numenius phaeopus)Vulnera
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Bar-tailed Godwit (Limosa lapponica
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Ruddy Turnstone (Arenaria interpres
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Red Knot (Calidris canutus)Vulnerab
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Semipalmated Sandpiper (Calidris pu
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Western Sandpiper (Calidris mauri)V
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White-rumped Sandpiper (Calidris fu
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Baird’s Sandpiper (Calidris baird
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Pectoral Sandpiper (Calidris melano
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Dunlin (Calidris alpina)Vulnerabili
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Stilt Sandpiper (Calidris himantopu
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Buff-breasted Sandpiper (Tryngites
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Long-billed Dowitcher (Limnodromus
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Red-necked Phalarope (Phalaropus lo
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Red Phalarope (Phalaropus fulicariu
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Glaucous Gull (Larus hyperboreus)Vu
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Sabine’s Gull (Xema sabini)Vulner
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Arctic Tern (Sterna paradisaea)Vuln
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Pomarine Jaeger (Stercorarius pomar
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Parasitic Jaeger (Stercorarius para
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Long-tailed Jaeger (Stercorarius lo
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Snowy Owl (Bubo scandiacus)Vulnerab
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Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus)Vuln
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Common Raven (Corvus corax)Vulnerab
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American Tree Sparrow (Spizella arb
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Savannah Sparrow (Passerculus sandw
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White-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichia
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Lapland Longspur (Calcarius lapponi
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Smith’s Longspur (Calcarius pictu
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Snow Bunting (Plectrophenax nivalis
Page 148 and 149:
Common Redpoll (Acanthis flammea)Vu
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Hoary Redpoll (Acanthis hornemanni)
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• Only one scenario of future cli
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Figure AB.3. An example of the pass
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Figure A2. 5. Cumulative climate ch
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Appendix D (continued)Audrey Taylor
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Appendix E (continued)Climate chang
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Appendix FNatureServe Climate Chang
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5. Significant barriers do not exis
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2. Species is moderately dependent
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3. Required habitat is generated by
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2. Distribution or abundance has un
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Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability of Breeding Birds in Arctic ...

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