Aspects of Disability Decision Making: Data and Materials

16. Ten Year Estimated Federal Savings by Program from Initial CDR Cessations in FiscalYear 2009600500Millions of Dollars400300200MedicaidSMI–DSMI–BHISSIOASDI10002009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018This chart shows the estimated reduction in benefit payments over a ten-year period resulting fromCDR cessations in fiscal year 2009. The estimated reduction is based on a projected total of 52,629 ultimatecessations after all appeals. Of the ultimate cessations, 46,821 are estimated to be from SSI CDRs and5,808 from DI CDRs.Although most CDRs do not result in cessation, SSA’s medical CDR process has been yielding a favorableratio of savings-to-costs. For the period 1996 through 2008, the savings-to-cost ratio averaged about$10.5 to $1. For fiscal year 2009, SSA estimates the ratio of savings-to-administrative costs at approximately$12.5 to $1. This is calculated by dividing the estimated present value of total lifetime benefitssaved with respect to CDR cessations, $4.6 billion, by the $371 million spent on periodic CDRs in fiscalyear 2009. SSA expects year-to-year fluctuations in the savings-to-cost ratio due to changes in the distributionof CDRs processed by program and the percentage of cases in which there is a high likelihood ofmedical improvement.Aspects of Disability Decision Making: Data and Materials 21