14Executive Focus<strong>The</strong> <strong>Economist</strong> <strong>April</strong> <strong>19</strong>th <strong>2014</strong>
Briefing <strong>The</strong> Ukraine crisis<strong>The</strong> <strong>Economist</strong> <strong>April</strong> <strong>19</strong>th <strong>2014</strong> 15Boys from the blackstuffMOSCOW, RUSSIA, AND SLOVIANSK, UKRAINE<strong>The</strong> government in Kiev has no obvious counters to Russian-inspired occupationsin the industrial eastAT A strangely stilted press conferencesix weeks ago, just after the annexationof Crimea, Vladimir Putin, Russia’spresident, was asked ifRussia would fight awar with Ukraine. “I want you to understandme clearly,” he answered. “If wemake that decision, it will only be to protectUkrainian citizens. And let us see if[Ukrainian] troops try to shoot their ownpeople, with us behind them—not in thefront, but behind.”Intended to reassure Russians, hiswords carried a sinister double meaning:Russia was prepared to use Ukrainian civiliansas human shields. Now it is doing so.In the past week it has engineered a situationin which the Ukrainian governmentmust either appear entirely ineffectual orrisk attacking some of its own citizens and,in so doing, provide a pretext for furtherRussian action—even, perhaps, invasion.On <strong>April</strong> 6th armed men seized the administrationbuildings in Donetsk andKharkiv, as well as the security-servicebuildings in Luhansk—the three capitals ofUkraine’s eastern provinces. Barricadeswent up and local enthusiasts gathered onthem, but without massive public support.On <strong>April</strong> 12th, in an apparently co-ordinatedway, the crisis moved to a newphase. Police and security-service buildingsfell to rebels in towns all across the region,many of them situated on road andrail links that would have strategic value inthe event of a Russian invasion. <strong>The</strong>sesmaller, poorer towns where the family ofthe deposed president, Viktor Yanukovych,has strong influence were an easiertarget than the cities.Unidentified, well-equipped soldiersled many of the occupations. <strong>The</strong>y werefollowed bylocal armed separatists and ordinarycivilians. Many police officersswitched sides. Russian television channels,disconnected a few weeks ago becauseof their ceaseless propaganda, havebeen turned back on. Passing through acheckpoint set up by pro-Russian rebels inSloviansk, 100km from Donetsk, a man onthe barricades says cheerfully that the situationunfolding is “just like Crimea”.Also in this section16 Russia’s military might17 <strong>The</strong> scope for new sanctionsAlien invasionRussia denies that the “little green men”who co-ordinated the occupation of Crimea,some of whom have now been seenin Donbas, are its soldiers. But last yearRussia’s defence ministry boasted aboutthe creation of a “special operations” unitcomprising personnel who could act as “illegals”in neighbouring countries, andmany think this has now been seen in action.Ukrainian security forces say theyhave intercepted a telephone conversationbetween pro-Russian forces and their Russianminders in military intelligence.<strong>The</strong> occupations have shown how littleauthority Ukraine’s government has in theeast. Yulia Tymoshenko, a former primeminister and presidential candidate, urgedthe government (which she effectivelycontrols) not to use force. One reason is herlack of confidence in Ukraine’s securityservices. A botched operation would enragethe public and give Russian forces apretext to move deeper into Ukraine. Anotherreason is the presidential electionsscheduled for May <strong>25</strong>th, which Ms Tymoshenkostill hopes to win, despite trailingbehind Petro Poroshenko, a billionairewho supported the February revolution.<strong>The</strong> acting president, Oleksandr Turchinov,pledged large-scale anti-terrorist operations,issued ultimatums and set deadlines—butto little effect so far. On <strong>April</strong> 15thgovernment forces freed a small airport atKramatorsk which had apparently beentaken by militants, but which does notseem to have been defended. “It looks a bitfarcical,” says Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor 1
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