The Economist - 19_25 April 2014

The Economist April 19th 2014 Europe 432 dogan if he runs in the presidential electiondue on August 10th. Hasim Kilic, theconstitutional court’s liberal president(and a devout Muslim) is a possible contender.Another is Meral Aksener, a femaledeputy for the far-right Nationalist ActionParty (MHP) with a reputation for toughnessand probity. Mr Kilicdaroglu is rumouredto favour a different lady: UmitBoyner, an outspoken former president ofTUSIAD, the main business lobby.The one person who might have defeatedMr Erdogan is the incumbent, AbdullahGul, because he can unite voters of allstripes, including Turkey’s14m Kurds. A cofounderof AK, Mr Gul has so far chosen toback Mr Erdogan, perhaps in hopes ofswapping jobs with him. But should Mr Erdogan’sdictatorial outbursts persist, hemight just have second thoughts. 7Italian politicsSilvio Berlusconi,social workerROMEEmbarrassments pile up but the formerprime minister still has political cloutNOT good: but far from the worst outcome.On April 15th a Milan courtruled that Silvio Berlusconi should servehis sentence for tax fraud by helping in anold people’s home in Milan. But the formerprime minister will be free to go to Romefrom Tuesday to Thursday. In practice, the77-year-old is unlikely to spend more thanhalf a day a week pretending to help grannies,and then only for nine months.As often happens in Italy, a dauntingpunishment has been whittled down to amild reproof. Mr Berlusconi’s four-yearsentence was cut to one year because of anamnesty law from a centre-left governmentin 2006. He could not be jailedthanks to another law passed by one of hisgovernments that bans the imprisonmentof most over-70s. Since the court had ruledout house arrest, there is nothing to stophim leading his Forza Italia! party into nextmonth’s European elections. The messagethat Mr Berlusconi was not just any criminal,but the leader ofItaly’s main conservativeparty, was neatly conveyed to thejudges when he spent some hours with theprime minister, Matteo Renzi, discussing aconstitutional reform that requires hisparty’s parliamentary support.Despite this clout, three recent eventshave left the media tycoon and his partybeleaguered. On April 10th a judge sequestered€49m ($68m) of assets said to belongto Roberto Formigoni, who was for18 yearsgovernor ofLombardy and for all but threea leading member ofMr Berlusconi’s party.Mr Formigoni, who has joined AngelinoCulture wars in UkraineHistory lessonsThe conflict in Ukraine spreads to its museumsE WHO controls the past controls the objects to them. But there is no guaranteethat Russia might not pinch the“Hthe future.” Orwell’s dictum nowfaces a new test. Shortly before Russia pieces the moment they arrive.annexed Crimea, the Bakhchisaray museum,north ofSevastopol, lent some Timmermans, does not wish to meddleThe Dutch foreign minister, Fransvaluable artefacts to an exhibition in the but he also wants to avoid being seen toNetherlands. The question as to which accept a new form ofart looting. Thiscountry these (and other objects from may be impossible; whether the goldCrimean museums) should return is returns to Crimea or to Kiev, each sidecreating a diplomatic conundrum. will accuse the Dutch ofpilfering.“Let yourselfbe overwhelmed by the A UNESCO resolution warns ofthegold ofCrimea,” boasts the Allard PiersonMuseum in Amsterdam. Never be-objects from Crimean museums to the“massive transfer ofpriceless culturalfore has Ukraine lent so many mostly Russian capital”. But a rogue Russia isCrimean treasures. The BlackSea peninsulais filled with gems left by invaders to stickto its obligations under interna-hardly going to be deterred by remindersover the centuries. The exhibition includesa Scythian gold helmet from 400tional law relating to cultural property.BC, pottery from Greekcolonisers and alacquered Chinese box that came alongthe SilkRoad. “We have given our verybest objects,” sighs Valentina Mordvintseva,a curator at the Crimean branch ofthe Institute ofArchaeology. She fearsshe may not see them again.Who is the rightful owner? On legalgrounds, Kiev has the upper hand becausethe Allard Pierson signed a loanagreement with the Ukrainian state. Andas the Netherlands does not recogniseRussia’s annexation, Ukraine still ownsthe property. Yet the Dutch also signedcontracts directly with the lending museums.And, says Inge van der Vlies, aprofessor at the University ofAmsterdam,there is an ethical case for returning Whose helmet is it, anyway?Alfano’s breakaway New Centre Right(NCD) party, is to go on trial next monthcharged with corruption and conspiracy.He denies wrongdoing.Then on April 12th police in Lebanon arrestedMarcello Dell’Utri, the man whocreated Forza Italia! from nothing in theearly 1990s, giving Mr Berlusconi the vehiclehe needed for his political career. MrDell’Utri, a Sicilian, remained close, despitecontroversy over his alleged links toCosa Nostra. He disappeared shortly beforethe supreme court could rule on hisseven-year jail sentence for aiding andabetting mobsters. Lower-court judgesruled that his collaboration with the Mafiaceased before he founded Forza Italia! Buthis legal problems and fugitive status areembarrassing for the party and its leader.Lastly, on April 13th, Mr Berlusconi’slong-standing spokesman, Paolo Bonaiuti,confirmed he was leaving Forza Italia!, butnot the centre-right—a hint that he will jointhe NCD. His decision to quit was evidenceof tensions that have multiplied withinForza Italia! as the party has drifted withouta clear direction in recent months.The possibility that Mr Berlusconimight have been under house arrest drewrenewed attention to his lack of a successor.Mr Alfano founded the NCD after MrBerlusconi had handed him the leadership,only to snatch it back again. Butwhether Mr Alfano can build a credible alternativeto Forza Italia! remainsto be seen;five months after its foundation, the NCDaverages less than 5% in the polls.Forza Italia!’s share has slumped from29% at last year’s election to 21%, belowBeppe Grillo’s maverick Five Star Movement(M5S). Unless Mr Berlusconi can finda way to revive his party’s fortunes, it ispossible that the next confrontation in Italianpolitics will not be between right andleft, but between Mr Renzi’s DemocraticParty and an M5S that aspires to replacenot just all the mainstream parties but parliamentarydemocracy itself. 7