The Economist - 19_25 April 2014

42 Europe The Economist April 19th 20142 making low-key speeches about crackingdown on tax evasion, promoting meritocracyand creating jobs for young Greeks.These are soothing sounds for voters fedup with traditional politicians.Some analysts claim that To Potami isbacked by powerful business interests determinedto stop Syriza and, perhaps, toforce Mr Samaras to call an early generalelection later this year. Mr Theodorakis insistshis party is financed by small donations.Questioned by a Pasokdeputy abouthis party’s finances, he snapped back, “Ittakes a lot of chutzpah to ask about ourcampaign when your party has dumped€140m on the Greek taxpayer.” He was referringto unpaid bank loans run up by Pasokwhen Mr Papandreou was in power.Greece’s political landscape is shifting—perhaps for the better. 7French politicsVallsmaniaPARISThe dangerofa prime minister who outshines the invisible presidentWHEN President François Hollandechose Manuel Valls as his newprime minister, he tooka big gamble. Hishope was that some ofthe popularity ofthe tough-talking, action-man Socialistwould rub offon him. Instead, the oppositeseems to be happening. Mr Valls’spopularity rating, at 58%, is the highest fora new mid-term prime minister in theFifth Republic, but Mr Hollande’s hasdropped to a new low ofjust18%.The only previous occasion when amid-term prime minister got close to suchhighs was1997, when Lionel Jospin wasmade head ofa Socialist governmentunder the Gaullist Jacques Chirac, andwon 47% approval. Yet this was duringpolitical cohabitation between the leftand right. Exclude such periods, and thepopularity gap between Mr Hollandeand Mr Valls, at 40 points, sets a modernrecord, according to Ifop, a pollster whoseratings go backto Charles de Gaulle.Mr Hollande has lost support acrossthe political spectrum, including on theleft. Among Socialist voters, his rating hascrumbled from 60% in March to 48%.Another poll this week suggests that, if apresidential election were held today, hewould be beaten into the run-offby theNational Front’s Marine Le Pen. With hisno-nonsense reputation and authoritativeedge, Mr Valls, by contrast, gets ahandsome 79% rating from Socialistvoters—and 58% from those who backthecentre-right UMP. “Le coprésident” read arecent cover of the weekly Le Point.Vallsmania may not last. The dailygrind ofthe job fells most modern primeministers, as it did Mr Jospin. Indeed, theTurkey’s prime ministerErdogan v judges,againISTANBULThe prime minister lashes out at hisopponentsTHE biggest foes of Recep Tayyip Erdoganwere the generals and the judges,who made common cause to try to oustTurkey’s pious prime minister (he wastrained as an imam) on thinly supportedcharges of steering the country towards Islamicrule. But they failed. The army wastamed through a series of court casesagainst alleged coup-plotters. The judiciarywas overhauled after constitutionalFrench refer to l’enfer (the hell) ofMatignon,the Paris mansion that is the primeminister’s office. For a president underthe Fifth Republic, this is part of the point.The head ofstate is meant to rise grandlyabove the rough-and-tumble, leaving hisprime minister to carry the can whenthings go wrong.Yet Mr Valls’s popularity is so broadlybased that he may be insulated for longerthan most. This sets up an awkward,unstable dynamic. Until now, althoughhe is a past rival ofMr Hollande, Mr Vallshas been studiously loyal. He ended uprunning Mr Hollande’s 2012 campaign,keeping a close eye on every detail, downto the knotting ofhis tie. But, as onefriend puts it, Mr Valls “thinks only aboutthe presidency”. The longer the popularitygap lasts, the more dangerous he maybecome. The politician whom Mr Hollandechose to rescue his presidencycould end up being his biggest threat.Valls ties the boss in knotsreforms were approved in a referendum in2010. Turkey’s democracy was at last ontrack, many hoped, until Mr Erdogan begantilting towards unabashed authoritarianismafter winning a third term in 2011.Flush with yet another victory in theMarch 30th local elections, in which hisconservative Justice and Development(AK) party swept up 45% of the vote, Mr Erdoganis now back at war with the judgesand, say many Turks, with democracy itself.On April 11th the constitutional courtoverturned parts of a bill rammed throughin February to give the government greatercontrol over the judiciary. The power grabwas part of a broader campaign to quashcorruption charges levelled against Mr Erdogan’schildren, business cronies andmembers of his cabinet. The campaign includeda ban on a social-media site, Twitter,on which a stream of incriminating recordingsofalleged conversations betweenMr Erdogan and his son Bilal were posted.The court threw out the Twitter ban earlierthis month, and access was restored.But Mr Erdogan fumed that he did not “respect”the ruling and said that the judgeswho issued it “ought to take off theirgowns”. He also called Twitter, Facebookand YouTube “tax dodgers” and said theymust pay Turkish taxes. YouTube remainsoff limits to Turkish users, even though alower court has overruled a separate banon the site. The company has now appealedto the constitutional court.Meanwhile, the main opposition RepublicanPeople’s Party (CHP) is sayingthat AK rigged the March 30th elections.Such claims may be overblown, but someWestern diplomats agree that the CHPprobably won in Ankara, where AKsqueaked in by a mere 30,000 votes. TheHigher Election Board has spurned theCHP’s repeated demands for a recount,while accepting all those lodged by AK.Mr Erdogan blames most of his recenttroubles on his former ally and fellowimam, Fethullah Gulen. He says Mr Gulen,who lives in Pennsylvania, has set up a“parallel state” by putting his followersinto powerful positions in the police,courts and security services (Mr Erdoganhas just passed a law tightening his grip onthe spooks). Their masters are Israel andothers who “cannot digest Turkey’s success”and want to overthrow AK, claimsthe prime minister. Millions of voters unwillingto risk a decade of economic prosperityunder AK apparently believe him.The flow of leaked recordings has stoppedsince the election. Mr Erdogan now vowsto crush Mr Gulen’s network of internationalschools and universities abroad:Gambia has caved in to AK pressure, butthe Iraqi Kurds have politely refused. Noneofthis helps Turkey’s image.The CHP leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, iscalling on the opposition to agree on acompromise candidate to challenge Mr Er-1