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LONG-RUN ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION’S EASTERN ENLARGEMENTRegression results with dummyAdjusted R Square 0.92Standard Error 0.21Observations 12Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-valueIntercept 0.48 0.15 3.23 0.01BNER CEEC-8 0.91 0.08 11.06 0.00Club Med Dummy variable -0.02 0.13 -0.17 0.87We repeat afterwards the same procedure using the quarterly data. With andwithout dummy, the regression equation looks as follows:Regression results with dummy variable using quarterly data184Adjusted R Square 0.85Standard Error 0.47Observations 12Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-valueIntercept 1.14 0.35 3.28 0.01BNER CEEC-8 (Q) 0.91 0.11 8.03 0.00Club Med Dummy variable -0.27 0.30 -0.90 0.39Regression results without dummy variable using quarterly dataAdjusted R Square 0.86Standard Error 0.47Observations 12Coefficients Standard Error t StatIntercept 1.14 0.35 3.30BNER 0.88 0.11 8.20The strong correlation between the nominal and the real exchange rate variabilitycan be seen also from the table below, which contains the correlation coefficientsbetween the bilateral nominal and real exchange rate and the relative CPI.
ANNEXESTable A4Correlation coefficients matrixMonthlyQuarterlyBRER-BNER BNER- CPI BNER-CPI BRER-BNER BNER-CPI BNER-CPICEEC-10Czech Republic 0.97 0.45 0.21 0.95 0.70 0.46Estonia 1.00 1.00Hungary 0.89 0.73 0.35 0.94 0.89 0.68Latvia 0.96 0.55 0.30 0.98 0.84 0.73Lithuania 0.98 0.54 0.35 0.99 0.87 0.79Poland 0.96 0.64 0.41 0.98 0.88 0.75Romania 0.79 0.45 -0.20 0.62 0.36 -0.51Slovak R 0.96 0.23 0.15 0.97 0.32 0.28Slovenia 0.85 0.47 -0.06 0.93 0.58 0.24Club MedGreece 0.36 0.83 -0.21 0.65 0.67 -0.12Italy 0.98 0.27 0.08 0.98 0.46 0.28Spain 0.94 0.42 0.10 0.98 0.38 0.18Portugal 0.92 0.61 0.24 0.95 0.79 0.56The table below show variability of the bilateral (real and nominal) exchange rateof the candidate countries currencies compared to that of the Club Med currencies.185
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WORKING DOCUMENTS W 109LONG-RUN ECO
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CONTENTSCONTENTSPreface 3Summary 91
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CONTENTSAnnexes1 The Balassa-Samuel
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LONG-RUN ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE EU
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INTRODUCTION1 INTRODUCTIONThe Europ
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INTRODUCTION4 To what extent do the
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INTRODUCTIONefficiency-based (first
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INTRODUCTIONThe exercise is not so
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INTRODUCTIONsome suggestions to min
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PROBLEMS OF ACCESSION TO THE INTERN
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A SOUND AND DYNAMIC ECONOMIC UNION5
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A SOUND AND DYNAMIC ECONOMIC UNION5
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A SOUND AND DYNAMIC ECONOMIC UNIONc
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A SOUND AND DYNAMIC ECONOMIC UNIONW
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A SOUND AND DYNAMIC ECONOMIC UNION
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EMU, EURO AND ENLARGEMENT6 EMU, THE
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EMU, EURO AND ENLARGEMENTTable 6.1
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EMU, EURO AND ENLARGEMENTDepositsDe
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EMU, EURO AND ENLARGEMENTEmployment
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EMU, EURO AND ENLARGEMENTwhich is s
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EMU, EURO AND ENLARGEMENT• The sa
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EMU, EURO AND ENLARGEMENTenues. Mea
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EMU, EURO AND ENLARGEMENTany ‘cle
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EMU, EURO AND ENLARGEMENTTable 6.6D
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EMU, EURO AND ENLARGEMENTDeposit mo
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EMU, EURO AND ENLARGEMENTIf the ECB
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EMU, EURO AND ENLARGEMENTBox 6.1The
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EMU, EURO AND ENLARGEMENTexchange r
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EMU, EURO AND ENLARGEMENTvariabilit
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EMU, EURO AND ENLARGEMENTFigure 6.1
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EMU, EURO AND ENLARGEMENT• The lo
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EMU, EURO AND ENLARGEMENTwill remai
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Page 157 and 158: LITERATURELITERATUREAlberolo-Ila, E
Page 159 and 160: LITERATURECommission (1998i) Twenty
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Page 175 and 176: ANNEXESANNEX 2WHY IT PAYS TO JOIN T
Page 177 and 178: ANNEXESThe key item in equation (4)
Page 179 and 180: ANNEXEScommon reserve pool of the E
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Page 187 and 188: ANNEXESVariability of relative CPIM
Page 189 and 190: ANNEXESANNEX 4AVERAGE FARM NET VALU
Page 191 and 192: ANNEXESANNEX 5EU BUDGET 1997 COMPAR
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Page 195 and 196: ANNEXESANNEX 6 EFFECTS OF THE BERLI
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Page 203 and 204: ANNEXESANNEX 8TECHNICAL ASPECTS AND
Page 205 and 206: ANNEXESreasons the Commission (1998
Page 207: ANNEXESOwn resourcesThe amount reta
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