LONG-RUN ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION’S EASTERN ENLARGEMENT78common trade policy implies (at minimum) a shift from a free trade area to acustoms union (without agriculture). It would bring <strong>the</strong> ‘partial-members’ to astatus already accomplished by Turkey. Even without agriculture, such a customsunion is GATT-compatible because it is explicitly meant to be completed withagriculture later on. But it would create enormous complications during a decadeor so. It is clear that partial membership is meant for a second tier <strong>of</strong> applicantcountries, which are behind in acquis adoption and enforcement and which haveproblems <strong>of</strong> transition, stabilisation and competitive performance. This <strong>the</strong>reforeimplies that an EU -20 or EU -21, would be subjected to complex agricultural transitionperiods, resulting in higher protection against <strong>the</strong> export from <strong>the</strong> ‘secondtier’countries to <strong>the</strong> ‘first-tier’ countries. In any event, <strong>the</strong> first tier will obtainaccess to <strong>the</strong> agricultural market <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> EU -15, thus rendering it far more difficultfor <strong>the</strong> second tier to export to <strong>the</strong> EU -15. To prevent this, <strong>the</strong> EU-15 would have toextend <strong>the</strong> free trade areas with all <strong>the</strong> CEECs to agriculture, so that <strong>the</strong> second tieris not grossly disadvantaged. For industrial goods a customs union can <strong>the</strong>n beagreed. Yet a free trade area in agriculture, with <strong>the</strong> EU -15 (or perhaps <strong>the</strong> EU -20)applying <strong>the</strong> CAP, is nothing less than a nightmare scenario, due to its complexityand incentives for fraud. And all <strong>of</strong> this would apply for only a limited period <strong>of</strong>time, until graduation to full membership. More likely, <strong>the</strong>refore, <strong>the</strong> EU wouldra<strong>the</strong>r opt for compensations in terms <strong>of</strong> market access on a case by case basis, inanalogy to what Tunisia and Morocco obtained with <strong>the</strong> accession <strong>of</strong> Spain andPortugal. Such compensatory negotiations would in any event be inescapable oncea first group will enter <strong>the</strong> Union.Ano<strong>the</strong>r non-trivial issue related to <strong>the</strong> customs union for a group <strong>of</strong> 28 states is<strong>the</strong> establishment <strong>of</strong> a common competition policy. The Europe Agreements entaila commitment to introduce national competition policies (based on Articles 81, 82and 86, EC) as well as some kind <strong>of</strong> self-discipline in state aids. Merger control hasbeen introduced in Central Europe, although it is not in <strong>the</strong> Europe Agreements. Itwould require ei<strong>the</strong>r a treaty change or a kind <strong>of</strong> EEA arrangement for a commoncompetition policy to be possible.The institutional box in figure 4.1 suggests <strong>the</strong>re is access to <strong>the</strong> European Court <strong>of</strong>Justice (ECJ), presumably limited to <strong>the</strong> areas falling under <strong>the</strong> scope <strong>of</strong> partialmembership. The legal complications here are enormous. Probably <strong>the</strong> least complicatedsolution would be a special court (similar to that <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> EEA) for relationswith <strong>the</strong> partial members, subject to a treaty, with full ratification procedures, yetwithout touching <strong>the</strong> institutional EU acquis itself. The SER proposal entails threenon-IM elements: decision-making, foreign and security policy and structural andcohesion policy. It is unclear what <strong>the</strong> participation in decision-making (Council,EP) exactly means; participation without votes (as sometimes occurs in EMUissues), full participation or something complex in-between? The political implications<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se variants differ ra<strong>the</strong>r drastically, both for Brussels/Strasbourg andfor <strong>the</strong> domestic politics <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> partial members. This is important because itshould accentuate <strong>the</strong> difference between <strong>the</strong> EEA route and <strong>the</strong> membership route.
THE RELEVANCE OF A CORE INTERNAL MARKET ACQUISThus, <strong>the</strong> distinction between having Council and EP representatives without votesand intensive co-operation without actually having seats in <strong>the</strong> Council and <strong>the</strong> EPmay not nearly be radical enough to satisfy <strong>the</strong> applicant countries. But if it is, itwould mean that partial membership should include some degree <strong>of</strong> voting power,probably related to <strong>the</strong> scope <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> acquis adopted.The icing on <strong>the</strong> cake is no doubt <strong>the</strong> eligibility for <strong>the</strong> Structural and CohesionFunds. Thus far, <strong>the</strong> Union has strictly maintained <strong>the</strong> strategy that such hugetransfers move between Union members. In <strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> Central Europe this has ledto <strong>the</strong> perverse result that <strong>the</strong> greater <strong>the</strong> difficulties and <strong>the</strong> lower <strong>the</strong> per capitaincome <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> country concerned, <strong>the</strong> lower <strong>the</strong> funds it would receive. The SERproposal can be interpreted as an attempt to break through this dysfunctionalapproach which causes a lot <strong>of</strong> resentment. Partial membership would permit <strong>the</strong>full benefits <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> funds to go to all candidate countries – provided <strong>the</strong>y fulfil <strong>the</strong>criteria <strong>of</strong> figure 4.1 – which should help to overcome bottlenecks in infrastructure,environment, technology and to finance re-training precisely for those whoare behind. In turn, it can be expected to facilitate catch-up growth as well as <strong>the</strong>adoption <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> more costly elements <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> IM acquis, including testing and certification.Unfortunately, <strong>the</strong> (net) paying EU Member States are likely to defend <strong>the</strong>view that full eligibility <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> second-tier for transfers would reduce incentives foradopting and enforcing <strong>the</strong> IM acquis as quickly as possible. Hence, it would becounterproductive. That this argument is ra<strong>the</strong>r opportunistic, should surprise noone who has studied <strong>the</strong> highly politicised and dysfunctional budgetary politics <strong>of</strong><strong>the</strong> Union, or ra<strong>the</strong>r its Member States (see chapter seven). That <strong>the</strong> Ne<strong>the</strong>rlandsshould be expected to join this opportunistic choir cannot be surprising ei<strong>the</strong>r,after <strong>the</strong> 1999 precedent <strong>of</strong> giving priority to juste retour to The Hague (in a year<strong>of</strong> national budget surplus!) over <strong>the</strong> <strong>long</strong>-standing Dutch policy preference toreform <strong>the</strong> CAP. The latter aim was dropped, even though <strong>the</strong> same Dutch governmentavowedly continues to regard such reform ‘critical’ for <strong>the</strong> enlargementprocess.79Altoge<strong>the</strong>r, <strong>the</strong> SER proposal is welcome because it represents a constructive andoriginal attempt to address <strong>the</strong> widespread fears <strong>of</strong> a distorted functioning orerosion <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> IM upon early accession by <strong>the</strong> CEECs. However, closer analysisreveals serious drawbacks <strong>of</strong> this alternative. Some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se have less to do with<strong>the</strong> notion <strong>of</strong> a core acquis than with <strong>the</strong> idea <strong>of</strong> partial membership: amendment<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> treaty (with ratification), <strong>the</strong> complicated institutional and judicial arrangementsand <strong>the</strong> full eligibility for transfers. There are also severe disadvantages in<strong>the</strong> practical implementation <strong>of</strong> this core acquis proposal. The combination <strong>of</strong>agricultural free trade areas with second-tier countries and an industrial customsunion (or bilateral customs unions) would be extremely complicated and wouldperpetuate for perhaps a total <strong>of</strong> fifteen years a patchwork <strong>of</strong> product and countryspecific transition periods for market access. In addition, it would complicatearrangements for CAP floor and intervention prices, EU export subsidies and <strong>the</strong> socalled‘compensations’ 9 . If one were to ignore this somehow and focus solely on a
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CONTENTSCONTENTSPreface 3Summary 91
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CONTENTSAnnexes1 The Balassa-Samuel
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INTRODUCTION1 INTRODUCTIONThe Europ
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LITERATURELITERATUREAlberolo-Ila, E
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LITERATURECommission (1998i) Twenty
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ANNEXESANNEX 2WHY IT PAYS TO JOIN T
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ANNEXESThe key item in equation (4)
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ANNEXEScommon reserve pool of the E
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ANNEXESTable A4Correlation coeffici
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ANNEXESVariability of relative CPIM
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ANNEXESTable A10Estimated expenditu
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ANNEXESANNEX 8TECHNICAL ASPECTS AND
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ANNEXESreasons the Commission (1998
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ANNEXESOwn resourcesThe amount reta