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illion cubic metres annually will be sourced
from the Caspian Sea by each of those
two nations, points out Central Asian researcher
and energy expert, Roland Götz.
That would mean the Europeans will be left
with »just 10 to 20 billion cubic metres« –
yet the plan was for ITGI, TAP and Nabucco
to have a total capacity of around 62
billion cubic metres. That will now have to
come from other sources. Another partnership
is also proving more difficult than
expected. In late November, when Iran
opened up a new supply route, it doubled its
gas imports from Turkmenistan. Like Turkey,
Iran is trying to expand its pipeline
network, despite the on-going sanctions,
and promote itself as an attractive transit
nation.
»Turkmenistan is still a key partner for
the EU«, says Nicole Bockstaller, spokeswoman
for the Energy Commissioner’s
Office in Brussels, in an attempt at reassurance,
adding that they fully expect to get
that supply. But criticism is already being
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aired. Bulgaria’s Minister of Economics,
Traicho Traikov, told the Viennese Standard
that Nabucco would fail if the Commission
did not do more to support it.
Botas wants to be
another Gazprom
It is a bonus for the politicians that all of
these pipeline projects will be operated by
private enterprises. If one operator does
not manage to secure the necessary contracts,
the relevant line will be relinquished.
The first such indications started coming
last September from the operator of
the ITGI, the Italian electricity giant Edison.
They were not ruling out the idea of a
tie-in with the Turkish section of Nabucco,
as it would »make economic sense,« according
to one company representative. Nabucco
headquarters denied ever having
such discussions with the competition
when questioned by zenith, although »eco-
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TuRkEy
nomic factors will ultimately define the
route of the pipeline network«, according
to Gabriele Egartner. The EU Commission
claims to support all three ventures equally.
The Turkish state-owned enterprise Botas,
which wants to invest billions in both Nabucco
and ITGI, is at the heart of the negotiations,
in Roland Götz’s view. »Botas will
probably not be content with being a natural
gas transporter, as it would rather play
the role of gas distributor.« In the past, Turkey
has shown an interest in having up to
15 percent of the pipeline gas – an option
firmly rejected by Europe to date. »The Nabucco
Consortium has been unable to make
the Turks an acceptable offer,« according
to Götz. But he thinks a »southern gas
transmission corridor« in the form of a
pipeline network via Turkey would be a
possibility. In that case, Botas would play a
central role in the supply of gas and be able
to show the door to the Russian Gazprom
group, from which Europe has long been
wanting to extricate itself. metz
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