dementia estimates and projections: australian states and territories

Dementia estimates and projections:Australian States and Territoriesgiven its distribution by age and gender, and the Northern Territory anunder-representation relative to the national average. The Territorydifferences may be due to different rates of diagnosis and/or to the smallsample size which, as highlighted in Table 2, remained a problem at theaggregated “persons” level for the Australian Capital Territory, NorthernTerritory and Tasmania.The DAC prevalence data were, as in Access Economics (2003), compared with thelatest meta-analyses by Jorm et al (in press), which include Jorm et al (1987), Hofmanet al (1991), Ritchie and Kildea (1995) and Lobo et al (2000). From these studies weestimated prevalence rates for those over 60 as shown in Table 3, by averaging therates from the source studies for each age-gender group. The averages derived arealso depicted graphically in Figure 2 for comparative purposes.TABLE 3 META-ANALYSIS PREVALENCE RATES, BY 60+ AGE GROUP & GENDER (%)AgeBandJorm etal.(1987)Hofman et al(1991)Ritchie&Kildea(1995)Lobo et al (2000)AverageF+M F M F+M F M F M60-64 0.7 0.5 1.6 - - - 0.6 1.265-69 1.4 1.1 2.2 1.5 1 1.6 1.3 1.770-74 2.8 3.9 4.6 3.5 3.1 2.9 3.3 3.575-79 5.6 6.7 5 6.8 6 5.6 6.3 5.880-84 10.5 13.5 12.1 13.6 12.6 11 12.6 11.885-89 20.8 22.8 18.5 22.3 20.2 12.8 21.5 18.690-94 38.6 32.2 32.1 31.5 30.8 22.1 33.3 31.195+ - 36 31.6 44.5 - - 40.3 38.1FIGURE 2 PREVALENCE RATES FOR CURRENT ESTIMATES, BY AGE GROUP & GENDER (%)4540% population3530252015MalesFemales10500-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95+Age groupApplying these average rates to the Australian population generates estimates of thenumber of people with dementia, by age group and gender, for the years shown inTable 4 over the page.4