dementia estimates and projections: australian states and territories

Dementia estimates and projections:Australian States and Territories[projections] may be conservative as diagnoses may occur earlier in thefuture in line with the current trend.”This indeed appears to be the case, as revealed in the new data.2.2 CURRENT ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS, AUSTRALIAFor this study, Access Economics acquired by special request new data (from theSurvey of Disability, Ageing and Carers released by the ABS in 2004) for dementiaprevalence rates as well as revised ABS demographic projections by States, Territoriesand Victorian regions. The raw self-reported prevalence data provided – whichcomprise much lower estimates than the true number of people with dementia for thereasons explained in Access Economics (2003) – are shown, by age and gender, inTable 2.TABLE 2 DAC SURVEY PREVALENCE ESTIMATES, BY AGE AND GENDER, 2003Age group (years) NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas ACT Australia (a)'000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000MALES0-59 np **0.1 np np - - np **1.160 and over *8.6 *6.6 *5.5 *2.8 *3.2 **0.8 **0.3 27.8Total *9.5 *6.7 *5.5 *2.8 *3.2 **0.8 **0.3 28.9FEMALES0-59 **0.2 **0.1 np - **0.1 np np **0.660 and over 23.4 23.1 12.3 *5.5 *5.5 *1.5 *0.9 72.4Total 23.6 23.2 12.3 *5.5 *5.6 *1.5 *1.1 73.0PERSONS0-59 **1.0 **0.2 **0.1 np **0.1 np **0.2 **1.760 and over 32.0 29.7 17.8 8.3 8.7 *2.3 *1.2 100.2Total 33.0 29.9 17.8 8.4 8.8 *2.3 *1.4 101.9- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)np not available for publication but included in the totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated* estimate has a relative standard error of between 25% and 50% and should be used with caution.** estimate has a relative standard error greater than 50%; considered too unreliable for general use.(a) Northern Territory data is not available for publication but is included in the totals.The DAC data were useful in two respects:As previously, they provide (the only) estimate of the number of people withdementia in the population under 60, showing an estimated 1,700 Australiansunder 60 with dementia in 2003 (0.01% of Australians under 60), albeit with avery high standard error.The data for the population aged 60 and over show that there are no significantdifferences between State prevalence rates after standardising for age andgender distributions. There were, however, significant differences for the Territories, with theAustralian Capital Territory showing an over-representation of dementia3