dementia estimates and projections: australian states and territories

Dementia estimates and projections:Australian States and Territories2. PREVALENCE ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS2.1 PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS, AUSTRALIAAccess Economics (2003) presented age-specific dementia prevalence rates as shownin Table 1, resulting in estimates of 162,300 Australians with dementia in 2002, 0.8% ofthe population.TABLE 1 PREVALENCE OF DEMENTIA BY AGE AND GENDER, 2002 ESTIMATESAgeGroupMales 2002 Females 2002 People 2002'000 % agegroup'000 % agegroup'000 % agegroup1993% agegroup0-24 - - - - - - -25-64 4.3 0.2% 2.3 0.1% 6.6 0.1% 0.1%65-74 12.1 1.9% 7.6 1.1% 19.7 1.5% 1.2%75-84 20.7 5.7% 34.1 6.8% 54.8 6.3% 6.0%85+ 19.1 22.8% 62 33.6% 81.1 30.2% 23.4%Total 56.3 0.6% 106.0 1.1% 162.3 0.8% 0.6%Source: Access Economics (2003), p31.Applying these prevalence rates to estimates at that time of the growing Australianfuture population showed dementia reaching the half-million mark around 2041 andgrowing to 581,300 people by 2051, 2.3% of the then projected population (Figure 1).FIGURE 1 PREVIOUS (2002) PROJECTION OF DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, 2002-2051index number relative to 2002=10040035030025020015010050-Dementia growthPopulation growth2002 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051YearSource: Access Economics (2003), p32.The report (p88) noted that these projections were likely to be conservative, sincecomparison of the 1993 and 1998 data showed an increase in the age prevalence ofdementia over time (see final columns of Table 1), as diagnostics continue to improve:“The prevalence estimates will be conservative as they will not capturepeople whose dementia has not been diagnosed….The prevalence2