dementia estimates and projections: australian states and territories

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Dementia estimates and projections:Australian States and TerritoriesTable 17 Dementia incidence by age & gender, New South Wales, 2001-2050 22Table 18 Dementia incidence by age & gender, Victoria, 2001-2050 23Table 19 Dementia incidence by age & gender, Queensland, 2001-2050 24Table 20 Dementia incidence by age & gender, South Australia, 2001-2050 25Table 21 Dementia incidence by age & gender, Western Australia, 2001-2050 26Table 22 Dementia incidence by age & gender, Tasmania, 2001-2050 27Table 23 Dementia incidence by age & gender, Northern Territory, 2001-2050 28Table 24 Dementia incidence by age & gender, Australian Capital Territory, 2001-2050 29ACKNOWLEDGEMENT AND DISCLAIMERAccess Economics would like to acknowledge with appreciation the comments,previous research and expert input from Professor Anthony Jorm and his colleagues atthe Centre for Mental Health Research, Australian National University.While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this document, theuncertain nature of economic data, forecasting and analysis means that AccessEconomics Pty Limited is unable to make any warranties in relation to the informationcontained herein. Access Economics Pty Limited, its employees and agents disclaimliability for any loss or damage which may arise as a consequence of any personrelying on the information contained in this document.
Dementia estimates and projections:Australian States and TerritoriesEXECUTIVE SUMMARYAnalysis in this report suggests that the number of people with dementia will be 25%higher by mid-century than projected in 2003. There are three main reasons for this.Higher rates of diagnosis of dementia.More precise (and higher) prevalence rates of dementia for the oldest old.Revision of ABS demographic projections yielding higher forecasts of the futureAustralian population, particularly in the older age groups.The higher estimates and projections for dementia incidence and prevalence acrossAustralia since 2003 show the sensitivity of the projections to relatively minor changes.While this means that such forecasts should be used with caution, it also indicates thatany actual delay in the onset of dementia – as a result, for example, of dementiaresearch and medical breakthroughs – would have a dramatic impact on the futurenumber of cases and the real costs of dementia.The new data indicate that in 2005, the number of Australians with dementiawill pass the 200,000 mark (and reach 1.0% of the population). By 2050, the total number will exceed 730,000 (2.8% of the projectedpopulation) – a fourfold increase since 2000.In 2005 we project there will be nearly 52,000 Australians newly diagnosed withdementia.By 2050, there are projected to be over 175,000 new cases every year,more than the total number of people with dementia in Australia in 2000.1 in 3 Australians with dementia (around 70,000 people) live in New SouthWales, projected to increase to 227,200 by 2050.1 in 4 Australians with dementia are Victorian (around 50,000 people), projectedto increase to 176,000 by 2050.The States with the oldest populations – South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria andNew South Wales – have the highest incidence rates and thus prevalenceburden of dementia, as a percentage of their populations.However, it is the younger States who will experience the faster growth, as theirpopulation distributions age into the dementia-prevalent years. The fastest growth is in the Northern Territory – a sixfold increase over 2000-2050. The slowest relative growth is in Tasmania, a ‘mere’ trebling.The Northern Territory, Queensland and Western Australia will experience rapidrises in dementia numbers in the near future. There will be around as many Queenslanders with dementia by 2050(over 171,000) than there were in the whole of Australia in 2000.The analysis has shown no significant difference in the prevalence rates, afterstandardising for age and gender, between the States.The report reinforces the critical importance of prevention activities, particularlyresearch, in order to make the advances necessary to delay the onset of dementia.This will lead to a better quality of life for Australians and make significant savings inthe future cost burden of dementia.i
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