dementia estimates and projections: australian states and territories

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Dementia estimates and projections:Australian States and TerritoriesThe data show that dementia prevalence increases from 171,220 people in 2000 andaround 197,900 in 2004, to 731,030 by 2050.The share of males is forecast to rise from 38% to 42% of all people withdementia over the period.This year (2005), the year when the first of the baby boomers turn 60, the numberof Australians with dementia will pass the 200,000 mark.By 2050 there are projected to be over 420,000 Australian women with dementia(3.2% of all women), and over 310,000 Australian men (2.4% of men). Overall, 2.8% of the population are projected to have dementia by 2050.This number (731,030) is substantially (25%) larger than the 581,300 (2.3%) forecastusing the data available in 2002. There are three main reasons for this.Higher rates of diagnosis from the new data: when applied to the populationdata for earlier in this decade, generate a much higher start point. Thus, for 2002, the previous estimate of 162,300 becomes 184,800. For people aged 65-74, we see from Table 1 that 1.5% of people wereformerly estimated to have dementia; Table 3 shows that this is consistentonly with the 65-69 year olds now (1.3%-1.7%) with the 70-74 year oldprevalence rate now estimated to be 3.3%-3.5%.More precise (higher) prevalence rates for the oldest old: the previous reportestimated prevalence of 6.3% in the 75-84 age band and 30.2% in the 85+ band,while the new prevalence estimates allow for narrower splits – five five-yearbands from age 75 to 95+. In the oldest group (95+) the prevalence rate is around 40%, and is alsohigher in the 90-94 and 80-84 bands (double for the latter group), where themost rapid population growth is forecast (the baby boomers start to turn 80in 2025). New demographic data: the ABS population data projection revisions of 2003-04 yield slightly higher future forecasts of the Australian population. The oldest old groups are revised upwards, largely reflecting lifeexpectancy gains.The significant change in prevalence estimates as a result of these factors underscoresthe sensitivity of the projections to such changes, lending caution to the interpretationand use of the forecasts. Indeed, more substantial events, such as research ortreatment breakthroughs that enabled the delay of dementia onset, would producesubstantial reductions in the future number of cases and in the real costs of dementia(Access Economics, 2004).Figures 3 and 4 illustrate the growth over the forecast period in the estimated numberof Australian men and women with dementia.6
Dementia estimates and projections:Australian States and TerritoriesFIGURE 3 DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, AUSTRALIA, BY GENDER, 2000-2010300250FemalesMales'000 Australians200150100-5020002001200220032004200520062007200820092010FIGURE 4 DEMENTIA PREVALENCE, AUSTRALIA, BY GENDER, 2000-2050800'000 Australians700600500400300200100-PersonsFemalesMales2000201020202030204020507
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