dementia estimates and projections: australian states and territories

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Dementia estimates and projections:Australian States and Territories2.3 ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS, STATES/TERRITORIESThe trends for the States and Territories are very similar to those overall for Australia,with differences in growth rates reflecting different patterns of demographic change.Detailed tables for each State and Territory are shown on the following pages (Tables 6to 13). A summary table (Table 5) and charts (Figures 5 and 6) are provided below,revealing that:1 in 3 Australians with dementia live in New South Wales (over 70,000 people),although its share is projected to fall from 35% to 31% over 2000-50. Nonetheless there will be more people with dementia in New South Walesby 2050 than there are today in the whole of the country.1 in 4 Australians with dementia are Victorian (over 50,000 people), projected toincrease to 176,000 by 2050. Like New South Wales, Victoria’s share of the totalis projected to fall, from 25.9% to 24.1% by 2050. There will be more people with dementia in Victoria in 2050 than there werein the whole of Australia in 2000.The most rapid growth in dementia prevalence is projected for: the Northern Territory (a six-fold increase over the period, possibly drivenby the low base and longer forecast life expectancy into the moredementia-prevalent years); Queensland (nearly six-fold – driven by population growth ‘retiring to thesun’), which will have nearly as many people with dementia as Victoria by2050; and Western Australia (5.5 times the number with dementia in 2050 relative to2000). Western Australia will have nearly 80,000 people with dementiarelative to South Australia’s 50,000 – although currently SA has more.Tasmania, the state with the oldest population profile already and relatively slowforecast growth, shows the slowest growth in numbers of people with dementia,although nonetheless three times the numbers of 2000 by 2050.FIGURE 5 DEMENTIA PREVALENCE (‘000) BY STATE/TERRITORY, 2000 AND 2050250'000 Australians2001501005020002050-NSWVICQLDSAWATASNTACT8
Dementia estimates and projections:Australian States and TerritoriesTABLE 5 DEMENTIA PREVALENCE (‘000) BY STATE/TERRITORY, 2000-2050NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT AUST2000 60.3 44.3 29.2 16.1 14.5 4.6 0.4 1.8 171.22001 62.7 46.1 30.6 16.6 15.2 4.7 0.5 1.9 178.42002 64.9 47.6 31.9 17.1 15.8 4.9 0.5 2.0 184.82003 67.1 49.3 33.4 17.7 16.5 5.1 0.5 2.1 191.72004 69.1 50.8 34.7 18.3 17.1 5.2 0.5 2.2 197.92005 71.4 52.5 36.2 18.8 17.7 5.4 0.5 2.3 204.92006 73.8 54.5 37.8 19.4 18.5 5.5 0.6 2.4 212.52007 76.2 56.3 39.4 20.0 19.3 5.7 0.6 2.5 220.12008 78.5 58.1 40.9 20.6 20.0 5.9 0.6 2.7 227.42009 80.8 59.9 42.5 21.2 20.8 6.0 0.6 2.8 234.62010 83.2 61.9 44.3 21.8 21.6 6.2 0.7 2.9 242.52020 110.3 83.6 65.6 28.0 31.8 8.2 1.0 4.3 332.92030 149.5 114.0 99.0 36.8 47.3 11.0 1.6 6.3 465.52040 194.8 149.8 138.7 46.2 65.5 13.6 2.2 8.3 619.12050 227.2 176.1 171.1 50.7 79.2 14.3 2.7 9.6 731.02000-50* 3.8 4.0 5.9 3.2 5.5 3.1 6.1 5.4 4.3Growth rank* 6 5 2 7 3 8 1 4Share 2000 35.2% 25.9% 17.1% 9.4% 8.5% 2.7% 0.3% 1.0% 100.0%Share 2050 31.1% 24.1% 23.4% 6.9% 10.8% 2.0% 0.4% 1.3% 100.0%%pop'n 2000 0.93% 0.94% 0.82% 1.07% 0.77% 0.97% 0.23% 0.56% 0.89%%pop'n 2050 2.72% 2.84% 2.68% 3.42% 2.76% 3.67% 0.88% 2.45% 2.77%* 2000-50 is the prevalence in 2050 divided by the prevalence in 2000 (ie the factor of growth over the period). Thegrowth rank ranks States/Territories according to the factor of growth from fastest (1) to slowest (8).FIGURE 6 DEMENTIA PREVALENCE (‘000) BY STATE/TERRITORY, 2000-2050250'000 Australians200150100NSWVICQLDSAWATAS, NT & ACT50-2000201020202030204020509
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