West Mojave Plan FEIR/S - Desert Managers Group

share of absolute population in Southern California due to its size. The pattern of growth,however, is shifting and outlying sub-regions are capturing a greater share of total growth. Since1980, outlying counties such as Riverside, San Bernardino, and Kern County have steadilyincreased their respective share of total population.Employment: Southern California population growth trends are largely influenced bynonagricultural employment trends and related housing construction. Non-agriculturalemployment correlates best with household formation, associated housing demand, andpopulation growth since a large segment of agricultural employment reflects transient andseasonal labor with limited capacity to occupy market rate housing. In addition, agriculturalemployment has been declining in absolute terms and as a share of total Southern Californiaemployment. For these reasons, non-agricultural employment growth will constitute a principalforce driving future housing growth and urbanization in the WEMO area.Between 1980 and 2001 nonagricultural employment in Southern California grew 34.0percent from 5.85 million jobs in 1980 to 8.24 million in 2001. Over this period 1.57 millionnew jobs (net) were created between 1980 and 1990 compared to 0.86 million (net) since 1990.Aggregate employment has grown at a slower rate in absolute and relative terms since 1990, inpart due to significant job losses during the early 90’s. The overall slower pace of employmentgrowth is indicative of broader trends describing the outlook of future economic growth in theregion.Not only is total employment in Southern California starting to grow more slowly,outlying areas are capturing larger shares of such growth. In 1980, Los Angeles Countyaccounted for 62.1 percent of nonagricultural employment throughout the Southern Californiaregion, including Kern County. In 2001, Los Angeles County’s respective share was down to49.7 percent. By comparison, San Bernardino County has captured an increasing share ofemployment (from 4.2 percent in 1980 to 6.8 percent in 2001), while the corresponding share forKern County has remained relatively constant (2.4 percent). Both Riverside and San BernardinoCounty are commonly recognized as a single metropolitan statistical area (Inland Empire) forpurpose of tracking most socio-economic trends. On the basis of this definition, the InlandEmpire has actually led Southern California in net employment gains since 1990 (314,400 jobs).As these trends suggest, the proportionate share of nonagricultural employment growth has beenshifting over the 21-year reference period, principally from Los Angeles County to the other sixcounties.Housing: Southern California housing growth trends are characterized by year-to-yearvolatility and shifting development activity throughout the region. Since 1980 roughly 1.93million construction permits have been issued for new housing development. The averageannual volume of development activity for all forms of housing (detached, attached, condo,apartment, etc.) is summarized in Table 3-37.Chapter 3 3-198