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West Mojave Plan FEIR/S - Desert Managers Group

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to undergo a dramatic reversal to the point of exceeding equilibrium levels describing theStatewide economy. A more balanced policy mix of residential and non-residential land usethroughout the <strong>West</strong> <strong>Mojave</strong> suggests limiting office, retail, industrial, and institutional land use(excluding local school sites) to roughly 160,000 acres.Recent growth trends and the long-term outlook for housing development is summarizedin Table 3-39 based on Census reported changes in area housing.Table 3-39<strong>West</strong> <strong>Mojave</strong> Housing Development OutlookEffective Mix Of Detached Vs Higher Density ProductTYPE HOUSING BUILDOUT 2000 EST 1990 EST CHG 2000BUILDOUTCHG 1990-2000All Housing 1,580,000 271,250 230,125 1,308,750 41,125Higher Density 253,000 41,775 38,900 211,225 2,875% High Density 16.0% 15.4% 16.9% 16.1% 7.0%Source: Bureau of Census; Alfred Gobar Associates.3.4.1.4 Study Area Market ShareResidential construction constitutes the form of land use likely to result in the greatestamount of permanent ground disturbance (subdivision grading) among common developmentactivities closely associated with the future urbanization of the <strong>West</strong> <strong>Mojave</strong> (retail, officeinstitutional,and industrial land use reflecting the other principal urban land forms). During themost recent 10-year period of construction activity, the effective share of building permits issuedwithin the principal growth locations of the <strong>West</strong> <strong>Mojave</strong> is summarized in Table 3-40.Table 3-40Residential Permits – 10-Year Average Share/MixALL UNITS SFD MF/OTHERSan Bernardino Subarea 52.0% 52.8% 25.5%Los Angeles Subarea 45.9% 45.0% 61.5%Kern Subarea 2.1% 2.2% 13.0%WEMO Overall 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%WEMO Unit Mix 100.0% 89.6% 10.4%Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census - Residential Construction Branch.As shown, within the last 10 years, the San Bernardino subarea has accounted for thelargest share of total permits, followed closely by the Los Angeles subarea.The 10-year average share of permit activity in each of the subareas described above isnot static but in fact reflects a shifting pattern of growth. Overall, the total share of housingactivity in the San Bernardino and Kern subareas has been declining, while the correspondingshare occurring in the Los Angeles subarea has been growing.Chapter 3 3-205

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